Only three big wins will do for England – Andy Goode
There’s been a lot of talk about injuries, selection and even a training game against Wales but it’s time to get down to business and nothing short of three comfortable wins will constitute a success for England this autumn.
It’d be fascinating to be a fly on the wall at the training match between the English and Welsh forwards in Bristol today. I’ve seen these sorts of exercises many times throughout my career at different clubs and at international level and a lot of the time it does descend into a bit of a scrap because there are no consequences if you’re offside or cheating at a driving maul or pulling on someone’s arm in the lineout.
Nigel Owens is one of the best referees in the world and he is there to oversee it but, in reality, it’s very different to refereeing a regular game with all the cameras and coverage they get. He can penalise people but there are no consequences because it’s just a training game and nobody’s going to get cited.
It can be a dangerous proposition, players can be overly physical and there might be injuries as well but those involved won’t have played at the weekend and it will give them a competitive session and replicate the physicality they’ll face in the autumn internationals.
Whether it’s supposed to be full throttle or not, I guarantee that the players won’t want to leave that session knowing that they were part of the pack was shoved around in the scrum or dominated at lineout time.
It should help focus England’s minds and step things up ahead of the weekend as Eddie Jones has said they haven’t been able to do the intense training they wanted to so far because there have been a few injuries and the other bodies are sore from the relentless nature of the Premiership and Champions Cup.
This is a good way for him to get that intensity he wants at the start of this week but international coaches do have to understand that you can’t just flog players during the short time you have them and you have to manage their workload and take into account what they’ve done over the past six to eight weeks.
Jones’ main job is selection and the big talking point for fans is at hooker and whether the England captain deserves his place when Jamie George is the country’s form hooker.
We all know the Saracens man would be in on form but selection isn’t just down to form and there are other factors to consider. Eddie Jones is a big believer in Dylan Hartley and the extra edge he brings to the team as a leader, with Jamie George making an impact off the bench, so I don’t expect that to change.
The balance between the second row and back row is the most difficult dilemma though.
Courtney Lawes has been tearing up trees for Northampton and Jones said last week that his fire has gone out. That could be mind games and an attempt to motivate him but I can only assume it’s getting his explanation in early for when he picks Chris Robshaw, Sam Underhill and Nathan Hughes in the back row.
Robshaw looks likely to be in the starting XV and that is purely due to his experience because on form he is nowhere near the best number six in England. I would say he is third choice.
Lawes is in much better form but he doesn’t have that international experience in the back row. He has only started one Test at flanker and that was all the way back in the 2013 Six Nations against France, so you can see why Robshaw would get the nod for his leadership and to get the balance right.
Eddie Jones has boxed himself into a corner a bit by saying that Robshaw isn’t a number seven because, if he wanted to fit him in, our best back row might be Lawes, Robshaw and Hughes.
As pundits and fans, we just look at who’s in form but it’s only the coach’s opinion that counts and he has to look at the DNA of his team and consider the make-up of the side. He sees what goes on in camp and selects the team accordingly and you can’t argue with his record.
The same debate around balance and experience applies to the outside centre berth as well but it has to be Henry Slade’s time to shine this autumn. He has been streets ahead of Jonathan Joseph this year in club rugby and if he doesn’t get his chance now, I’m not sure when he will.
If Elliot Daly’s fit to start on the wing, then there might be a chance of starting Anthony Watson at full back and playing Semesa Rokoduguni or Denny Solomona on the other wing.
However, picking a back three of Watson, Rokoduguni and Solomona, or even Jonny May, would be a step too far as they are all x-factor players and you don’t want to throw too many unknown quantities in at once as well.
Watson would be the exciting choice at full back but if Eddie Jones doesn’t have his first choice wingers available, I expect him to stick with Mike Brown because of the solidity he provides at the back.
I go back to Martin Johnson when he got the England job in 2008 and chucked a load of youngsters in there together because they were in form and then had to backtrack after they were heavily beaten by Australia, South Africa and New Zealand in the autumn internationals.
Jones won’t be making a similar mistake.
Some coaches say that it’s all about performance and if you get that right, then the result will take care of itself but I believe England will be aiming for significant wins against Argentina and Australia to make a real statement going forwards and that means winning by 25 points rather than five.
England beat Argentina 27-14 last November and that was with Daly having been sent off after five minutes. We also beat them 2-0 in the summer with a scratch side and if you add into the mix that the Pumas have only won one of nine games in 2017 and that was against Georgia, England should be winning comfortably.
You can’t underestimate them as they have players that can run a game and ones that can burn you as well but anything less than a big win this Saturday will be a major disappointment.
Australia will be the real test next week but I still expect England to have too much as the game wears on and come away with a 15 or 20-point victory in the end and then the third game against Samoa will be an opportunity to try some of the younger players.
I think it’s a great idea from Mako Vunipola and Manu Tuilagi to encourage the England boys, who are reportedly getting around £22,000 per match this autumn, to give just five per cent of that or £1,000 to Samoa as their players are only earning £650 for playing in the same game.
They understand what it’s like for the Pacific Island nations and it shows they’re not just thinking about themselves. It’ll be great if they can get the other players on board but it’s down to the RFU to make more of a gesture to the Samoa Rugby Union and World Rugby to address the situation.
The match is thought to be generating £10 million and Samoa should be getting a greater share of the profits for the good of the game and to ensure that they’re sustainable moving forwards.
Comments on RugbyPass
Hi Nick. Thanks for your +++ ongoing analysis. Re Vunivalu, He’s been benched recently and it will be interesting to see what Kiss does with him as we enter the backend of SRP. I’m still not sold.
79 Go to commentsIn the fine tradition of Irish rugby, Leinster cheat well and for some reason only known to whoever referees them, they are allowed to get away with it every single game. If teams have not got the physicality up front to stop them getting the ball, they will win every single game. They take out players beyond the ruck and often hold them on the ground. Those that are beyond the ruck and therefore offside, hover there to cause distraction but also to join the next ruck from the side thereby stopping the jackal. The lineout prior to the second try on Saturday. 3 Leinster players left the lineout before the ball was thrown and were driving the maul as soon as the player hit the ground and thereby getting that valuable momentum. They scrummage illegally, with the looshead turning in to stop the opposing tighthead from pushing straight and making it uncomfortable for the hooker. The tighthead takes a step and tries to get his opposite loosehead to drop the bind. Flankers often ‘move up’ and actually bind on the prop and not remain bound to the second row. It does cause chaos and is done quickly and efficiently so that referees are blinded by the illegal tactics. I am surprised opposition coaches when they meet referees before games don’t mention it. I am also surprised that they do not go to the referees group and ask them to look at the tactics used and referee them properly. If they are the better team and win, fair play but a lot of their momentum is gained illegally and therefore it is not a level playing field.
1 Go to commentsI’d be fascinated to see what other candidates you all might have for the Lions captaincy role. Let me know, below 👍
1 Go to comments“ planning for the next cycle….” Sigh ill-advised language Elton old juice bean. Ppersonally glad you self-eliminated yourself, there were better players in the position around you.
3 Go to commentsRegardless of best in world etc. Lawes was outstanding against Leinster and has been all season. Looked like three try saving turnovers. His turnovers also contributed to NH scores. Immense performance.
2 Go to commentsDickson now considered the top ref in England it appears. Good that these series are getting one NH and one SH ref.
2 Go to commentsI don’t think any coach or selector would ever rely on Blackadder being available for selection. I didn’t think it would be possible but he has easily eclipsed Ennor as they most injured player of all time. IMO a symptom of today’s game where players are required to carry at least 10kg of extra mass from when they first hit the scene in their early 20s. Some players respond well to this, maybe due to genetics allowing them to recover faster, or not having reached their peak natural weight yet, but for others the constant training to maintain their weight eats away at recovery time and they spend most of their careers injured.
4 Go to commentsThanks for the lesson Nick! I presume that targeting gaps is situational because if a ball carrier straightens the line they can't be allowed a gap to run into? It feels like you need depth if you're going to pass it wide and plenty of variety - straight running, kicks just in behind, cross kicks etc. BTW what an incredible bench Toulouse had this week. People complain about Leinster being stacked but they need to be at the very highest level.
19 Go to comments2015 was by far the best team. They have had many good backlines over the years but the 2015 team was one of the few to have an absolute world class forward pack - all of them international quality. 6 ABs, 1 future English player, and one that would have gone on to ABs had he not been forced to retire due to concussion. This current team doesn’t have the same size and experience at lock, but providing they can keep this many talented young players (who have all significantly increased their profile this year) together for another 2 years they could eclipse the 2015 team.
2 Go to commentsAnd I’ve just seen RA has topped up the offer to Paisami and extended it beyond 3 years and he’s signed. Great news
79 Go to commentsInteresting watching Amaua starting to fire. No idea why he was pulled so early against the Reds.
4 Go to commentsNice to read something positive about Vunivalu; it doesn’t happen often. I despair for rugby in Oz. Unless some form of compensation for the teams producing players is devised, there is no obvious way for us to combat poachers coming to grab players in their prime with bigger pay cheques. A return to the SR crowds we were getting in 2010-2014 and a quadrupling of the TV deal would be a start but I don’t see how those things happen. Perhaps the government could be encouraged to deliver tax breaks like in Ireland?
79 Go to commentsI wasn’t aware that the blitz targeted space so, as usual, something learned from reading one of your articles, Nick. Watching the game live I attributed the Saints’ inaccuracy to their own mistakes and nerves. Perhaps some credit to the Leinster D.
19 Go to commentsGotta give it to you Graham, you support your players and team to the hilt. There may be strains of exaggeration laced throughout but gotta love the passionate parochialism.
2 Go to commentsNice one Nick. No doubt Vunivalu’s involvements and work rate are improving this year in attack, but I still think he is too raw on the defensive and backfield part of his game to be considered as a starter. Wales would just kick and run it to his side all night as the brumbies have done to good effect in the past. But, his size/power will keep him in the convo with Mark N leaving and Petaia’s injury record. Hunter definitely enjoying an injury-free run this season and being given the keys by Kiss - I have always been a fan of his. All I’d say is that his triple threat has been evident since 2020/21. I remember him making a grubber for a petaia try after the siren to beat the Brumbies in Canberra after the 80th minute in 2021. Lastly, Jock Campbell, who I know isn’t at the top of your list, I thought had alot of positive involvements in the saders game including both of Tim ryan’s tries and Mcreights
79 Go to commentsAg please, Pieter Stef Du Toit has played circles around this clown.
2 Go to commentsJust celebrating the Bok’s 1648th consecutive day as RWC champions. They are also the Qatar Airways Cup winners, which I know BennieBoy cares about a lot.
2 Go to commentsGood to here positive stories towards Aus Rugby. Although that might be the case, and highers up are right about Jordie, I wouldn’t stress trying to retain him. What I have seen of him in recent times is that he’s not using that something special. I feel there a better ‘something special’ options coming through that they won’t have to compete with league for, hell even in Kerevi and Paisami (isn’t it great to finally see his ability getting recognized, probably taking this article in isolation too much here).
79 Go to commentsgreat article! I wonder whether we will we see Ireland adopt the Nienaber blitz? All the teams who have tried it so far (SA included) have gone through significant teething problems in the first season; Ireland could possibly be in the unique position of being able to switch to a hard blitz in season 2 of a world cup cycle and already have so many players used to the system that it can be implemented seamlessly.
19 Go to commentsThey probably left another 20 on the field to be fair. Also - the officiating was… ordinary.
1 Go to comments