STATS: Some insane nerd stats and infographics around this year's Aviva Premiership
Who will come out on top? Which clubs have put in the pre-season hours? Who is still recovering from their summer efforts? And when will your team face their toughest test?
To help answer those questions and more, here is the ultimate guide to the season, giving you an expert insight into the highs-and-lows you can expect over the next nine months.
Season Overview
By looking at the head-to-head results over the years, we are trying to predict where each club is likely to face their toughest run-in this season, alongside the dates fans might see their team hit a purple patch of form.
A club-by-club guide can be seen here:
* Saracens should finish strongly with their last three matches all among their 10 easiest.
* Wasps should hit the ground running as they have three relatively easy games to begin with, but three of the following four are among their toughest. Will the momentum generated by an easy start carry them through to Christmas?
* Exeter Chiefs have three easy games in their last four, so could finish well.
* Leicester Tigers go the longest before hitting one of their five toughest games, but then have a horrible December where they face Wasps, Saracens and Harlequins back-to-back.
* Bath have a rough start – three of their five toughest games come in their first five fixtures, but they also get three of their easiest in the first seven rounds.
* Northampton Saints must wait the joint-longest for one of their 5 easiest games and have 3 tough games in their last 4 (Saracens at home, then Leicester and Wasps away).
* Harlequins also get three of their five easiest games in the opening seven rounds – and only one tough fixture – so should start well
* Gloucester have a tough start – their first three games all rank among their toughest 10.
* Sale Sharks have an interesting September: their first five games are all either one of their toughest or easiest.
* Newcastle will have faced three of their five toughest challenges in the first eight rounds and are also the only club to play four of their five easiest games in the first half of the season.
* Worcester have a rough start, with six of their 10 toughest games in their first nine fixtures and the joint-longest wait for one of their five easiest.
* London Irish only have one of their five easiest games in the first half of the season and the other four alternate at the start of the second, which could enable them to pull away from the bottom of the table as the “business end” of the season approaches.
First Game of the Season
History shows that the first game of the season favours some clubs more than others. By looking how each club has performed in all their opening Premiership fixtures, Canterbury have found that being a favourite for the league doesn’t mean you’re most likely to win your first game…
* Saracens, Leicester Tigers and Bath have all won 65% of their opening day fixtures in the professional era, with Saracens the most dominant in points scoring terms.
* In complete contrast to this, Worcester Warriors have only won 2 opening day fixtures on 11 different outings, so will be hoping to prove history wrong away to Newcastle Falcons on Friday.
* Bath have won 9 of their last 10 opening day fixtures, but a trip to Leicester Tigers on opening day – where they’ve only won 1 and drawn 2 of their 20 previous meetings – means that it’d be impressive for them to extend this.
* Notably, title contenders Wasps have the second worst opening day win percentage out of all the clubs in the Premiership, providing hope for Sale Sharks when they clubs meet at the Ricoh Arena on Saturday.
Fast and Slow Starters
Although winning the opening fixture is important, getting off to a good start across your opening few games is crucial. Canterbury found that history provides hope for some fans, while others might want to remain in hiding for the first few games of the season:
* Adding weight to the Wasps versus Sale Sharks fixture, history says that Wasps are 33% less likely to win their first three games compared to the rest of the season, while Sale Sharks enjoy a boost of over 20% in their opening three fixtures
* Gloucester appear to prepare well for the start of the season, with the club 12% more likely to win their first three games compared to the rest of the season.
* There seems to be less hope for Worcester Warrior fans whose club are 33% less likely to win in their opening three fixtures than during the rest of the season.
Home Advantage
We all know that playing on home soil in front of a partisan crowd provides a huge boost to the home clubs. But is this true for every side in rugby’s top flight? While every team does enjoy a slight home advantage, which clubs really make it count, and who struggles under the pressure of an expectant crowd?
* Worcester Warriors, Newcastle Falcons and Gloucester all enjoy a significant home advantage compared to their overall performance throughout the season, with each club over 40% more likely to win at home.
* Meanwhile Exeter Chiefs have a surprisingly low home advantage for a team that many clubs have to travel a long distance to reach, with the West Country club just 17% more likely to win when playing at home (the lowest home advantage in the league)
Fixtures to plot in your diary
For fans around the country hoping to watch the games with the most action, Canterbury have put together a week-by-week guide which highlights what is likely to be the highest scoring match of each round. These are the fixtures to plot in your diary, whether you’re a club fan or are just a rugby neutral who likes to see tries being scored!
* Sale Sharks are a good team to follow in the early part of the season – in four of the first six weeks of the season, their match has the highest-scoring head-to-head record in the professional era.
* Leicester Tigers are likely to be the most entertaining over the festive period: three of the four rounds in December and January have a Tigers match with the highest-scoring head-to-head record.
* The team for neutrals to keep an eye on during the run-in is Exeter Chiefs – the last four rounds of fixtures all have the Chiefs’ game as the match with the highest-scoring head-to-head record.
Major comings and goings in theEnglish Premiership ahead of the opening round of matches beginning on Friday:
Bath
In: Freddie Burns (Leicester Tigers), Anthony Perenise (Bristol Rugby), Sam Underhill (Ospreys)
Out: David Denton (Worcester Warriors), George Ford (Leicester Tigers)
Exeter Chiefs
In: Matt Kvesic (Gloucester Rugby), Wilhelm van der Sluys (Southern Kings), Nic White (Montpellier)
Out: Niko Matawalu (released), Geoff Parling (Melbourne Rebels)
Gloucester
In: Ruan Ackermann (Lions)
Out: Paul Doran-Jones (Wasps), James Hook (Ospreys), Sione Kalamafoni (Leicester Tigers), Matt Kvesic (Exeter Chiefs), Greig Laidlaw (ASM Clermont Auvergne), Jonny May (Leicester Tigers)
Harlequins
In: Renaldo Bothma (Bulls), Demetri Catrakilis (Montpellier,) Francis Saili (Munster)
Out: Matt Hopper (Oyonnax), Ruaridh Jackson (Glasgow Warriors), Nick Evans (retired)
Leicester Tigers
In: George Ford (Bath Rugby), Sione Kalamafoni (Gloucester Rugby), Nick Malouf (Australia Sevens), Jonny May (Gloucester Rugby), Dominic Ryan (Leinster).
Out: Freddie Burns (Bath Rugby), Jon-Paul Pietersen (Toulon), Marcos Ayerza (retired)
London Irish
In: Petrus Du Plessis (Saracens), Saia Fainga’a (Brumbies), Luke McLean (Beneton Treviso), Ben Meehan (Melbourne Rebels), Napolioni Nalaga (Lyon), Gordon Reid (Glasgow Warriors)
Out: Tom Court (retired)
Newcastle Falcons
In: Toby Flood (Toulouse), Josh Matavesi (Ospreys), Maxime Mermoz (Leicester Tigers), Daniel van der Merwe (Scarlets)
Out: Mike Delany (Bay of Plenty), Mouritz Botha (retired)
Northampton Saints
In: Piers Francis (Blues), Rob Horne (Waratahs), Cobus Reinach (Sharks), Francois Van Wyk (Western Force)
Out: JJ Hanrahan (Leinster), Louis Picamoles (Montpellier), George Pisi (released)
Sale Sharks
In: Francois de Klerk (Lions), James O’Connor (Toulon), Jono Ross (Stade Francais), Josh Strauss (Glasgow Warriors)
Out: James Mitchell (Connacht), Peter Stringer (Worcester Warriors), Mike Phillips (retired), Magnus Lund (released)
Saracens
In: Dominic Day (Rebels), Will Skelton (Waratahs), Christopher Tolofua (Toulouse), Liam Williams (Scarlets)
Out: Chris Ashton (Toulon), Petrus Du Plessis (London Irish), Jim Hamilton, Kelly Brown (both retired)
Wasps
In: Paul Doran Jones (Gloucester Rugby), Juan de Jongh (Stormers), Gabiriele Lovobalavu (Bayonne), Marcus Watson (Newcastle Falcons)
Out: Kurtley Beale (Waratahs), Nick De Luca (retired), Carlo Festuccia (retired)
Worcester Warriors
In: David Denton (Bath Rugby), Peter Stringer (Sale Sharks)
Out: Tevita Cavubati (Newcastle Falcons), Ryan Lamb (La Rochelle), Na’ama Leleimalefaga (Brive)
Comments on RugbyPass
An on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
24 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
24 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
24 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
24 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
11 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to comments