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LONG READ Can Schmidt revisit history and revive Wallabies for ‘worst type of All Blacks'?

Can Schmidt revisit history and revive Wallabies for ‘worst type of All Blacks'?
1 month ago

If there’s one thing to cling to for Wallabies fans this week after the record loss to Argentina in Santa Fe – and goodness knows we need something – it’s that Joe Schmidt now finds himself in a position he has kind of experienced before.

The 67-27 thumping at the wonderful hands and quick feet of Los Pumas has given Schmidt confirmation that the distance between Wallabies’ highs and lows are about as extreme as it gets in international rugby. And what’s more, he’s found them just only seven days apart.

The second-half capitulation has sent the coaching team back to the drawing board. Heads are likely still being scratched as to how a 20-3 lead could be squandered so meekly. The opposition, to that point being well contained and even well beaten, flipped a switch and scored 64 points to seven over the next 50 minutes or so – 26 of them in the last eight minutes.

Sitting in the back of minds amidst all the head-scratching and wondering how on earth it all went wrong is the worst familiar feeling in Australian rugby: knowing that the All Blacks are arriving next week.

Josh Nasser
Australia were left shellshocked after conceding nine tries to Argentina in Santa Fe (Photo Daniel Jayo/Getty Images)

And it’s the worst type of All Blacks, too. The wounded-and-humbled-on-tour All Blacks. The really-needing-a-response All Blacks. The All Blacks which turned round a humiliating loss to Argentina in Wellington into a 32-point win in Auckland. Those All Blacks.

But this is also where the history books provide some degree of assistance.

Back in 2012, Ireland were humbled 60-0 in New Zealand – still a record loss now, 12 years later. The 2013 Six Nations wasn’t much better, where they won just one game in the tournament, suffered a first ever defeat to Italy, and finished fifth overall.

Along the way, they slumped to a worst-ever world ranking of ninth and Declan Kidney was removed from his post. A horrible injury toll meant Ireland were often fielding vastly inexperienced sides.

Current Queensland coach Les Kiss took the Irish squad to North America for the mid-year Tests, with Schmidt not taking the reins until after Leinster won the European Challenge Cup and the Pro12 double.

Schmidt’s first Ireland team beat Samoa 40-9 at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin, running in five tries to none.

Joe Schmidt
Joe Schmidt almost guided Ireland to a famous first win over New Zealand a week after his new side had lost to Australia (Photo David Rogers/Getty Images)

The following week, however, the Irish were beaten by an Australian side coached by Ewen McKenzie and on something of a rebuild themselves after losing a Test series to the British and Irish Lions mid-year. The Wallabies won 32-15 but played nearly a quarter of the game down a player, after a Michael Hooper yellow card late in the first half, and a Tevita Kuridrani red card for a tip tackle late in the second.

Champion Irish fly-half Johnny Sexton sat out the win over Samoa, and exited the Wallabies game at half-time with a hamstring injury.

Schmidt said of the loss to Australia, “We were no different to last week, and that’s unfortunate because you want to see improvement week on week. But there’s no more work to be done than I thought. We’re a work in progress.”

The following week Ireland hosted New Zealand in Dublin, and were a completely different side. They ripped the All Blacks apart and led 19-0 after 18 minutes, and 22-7 after half an hour.

Ryan Crotty
Ryan Crotty’s winning try in the final minute denied Ireland a famous win over the All Blacks in 2013 (Photo Phil Walter/Getty Images)

But as was their wont at the time, the reigning World Cup champions launched a desperate late attack from a penalty in the last minute, mounting the phases patiently, before Dane Coles eventually put Ryan Crotty over in the corner to level the scores with 81 minutes and 24 seconds on the clock.

Aaron Cruden needed to convert the try to win but missed, only for referee Nigel Owens to rule Ireland charged off their line too early. Cruden didn’t miss with the second attempt, and the final moments were celebrated all over again in a 10th anniversary clip on the All Blacks YouTube channel just last year.

It all sounds eerily familiar for Wallabies fans, right?

After a 2023 most would rather forget, Australia has similarly fallen to ninth in the rankings. Injuries, post-RWC departures, and a need to build depth has seen Schmidt send out 16 Wallabies debutants in 2024, and with only the hefty tallies of a couple of senior players boosting the cap total in otherwise very inexperienced sides.

And now, a record loss has befallen them as well.

In having to revive a young side, coming off a record loss and with the Bledisloe Cup next on his agenda, Schmidt may be about to face the biggest test of his professional coaching career.

But the point in delving this far back into the history books is to back up the notion that Schmidt knows the size of the rebuild required, and what supporters are going through, because this was the same situation in which he started his Ireland rebuild project a decade ago.

None of this, of course, is any type of guarantee of Australian success, and certainly not next weekend. In having to revive a young side, coming off a record loss and with the Bledisloe Cup next on his agenda, Schmidt may be about to face the biggest test of his professional coaching career.

Asked to cast an eye forward to the annual trans-Tasman clash amid the post-match inquest in Santa Fe, Schmidt said: “I think that’s maybe one of the advantages of being quite pragmatic about it, getting the stuff that we did well, particularly in that first 30 minutes, looking to build a bit of confidence on that.

“And then making sure that we steel ourselves for what’s coming with some of the things we didn’t do well in that last 50. And I think the last 10 minutes, we were over-chasing the game with a young group, and there is always the risk that the score will blow out.

Santiago Carreras
Argentina exposed huge fault-lines in Australia’s defence, running riot in the final quarter (Photo Luciano Bisbal/Getty Images)

“But at 41-27, we’re only one score away from picking up a couple of bonus points at worst, and maybe chasing another chance at the game. But I think we just overreached at that back end and it didn’t look great in that last eight to 10 minutes.”

Schmidt admitted both his coaching staff and the playing group learned “a fair bit” in the 40-point loss to Los Pumas, but learning is only half the job after such a demoralising result.

The other, more urgent, half is to ensure it doesn’t happen again. That’s where Schmidt and his coaching brains trust of Mike Cron, Laurie Fisher and Geoff Parling have their work cut out.

Clearly, they’ll need to review why the bench had little to no impact over the last half an hour. They’ll also look at how their defensive system completely disintegrated in the face of stunning Argentine momentum.

But they should also take a closer look at the team’s decision-making under pressure in that period, and even whether they made the right calls with their substitutions.

Rob Valetini
Back-rower Rob Valetini was removed from the fray just after the hour in Santa Fe (Photo Daniel Jayo/Getty Images)

The decisions that removed Angus Bell, Nick Frost and Rob Valetini – the Wallabies’ three best forwards through The Rugby Championship to date – from the contest in the second half are easy ones to look back on, because they collectively removed most of the Wallabies’ ball-carrying effectiveness in three steps.

Ultimately, if Schmidt says he could see some significant progress in how the Wallabies played and attacked so clinically in the first half an hour, then that’s what the fans need to see more of. Add to that the defensive and breakdown work from the win in La Plata the week before, and you have a strong foundation of a game to take on New Zealand.

Address some set-piece concerns as well, and Schmidt will have Australian citizenship rubber-stamped in weeks whether he wants it or not. But that’s the size of the job now ahead of him.

We wait to see if Schmidt’s history can repeat. And not just because the Wallabies need some results in 2024. Next year’s British & Irish Lions tour, and Australian rugby more broadly, is already sweating on it.

So how did Schmidt’s Ireland rebuild project work out in that first year?

Not even four full months on from those November 2013 results, Ireland beat France in Paris by two points to lift the 2014 Six Nations Championship title. They finished 2014 ranked third in the world

It all worked out pretty bloody well, and that’s the bigger-picture progression that Schmidt has been outlining since he took on the Wallabies job.

Now, we wait to see if Schmidt’s history can repeat. And not just because the Wallabies need some results in 2024.

Next year’s British & Irish Lions tour, and Australian rugby more broadly, is already sweating on it.

Comments

14 Comments
T
Teddy 28 days ago

Australia are a tier 1 team in name only. Conceding 67 PTS shouldn't be possible at this level, especially without the mitigation of a few red cards.


Joe is the wrong man. He always brought good teams to the next level but now he's starting in the gutter.


Do aussies even watch union anymore?

M
Mitch 30 days ago

Has Laurie Fisher explained why he doesn't believe in the aggressive, blitz defence that has served a number of teams well over the last few years?

B
Bull Shark 31 days ago

The wallabies are going to get a walloping I’m afraid.


We’re taking about the no. 3 in the world, World Cup silver medalists against the world no. 9 at rock bottom.

S
SM 31 days ago

5 Super Rugby sides= 10 state teams , that's your version of the Currie Cup/NPC.If Australia want to pick from overseas it must benefit them not because the Springboks are successful at it

M
Mitch 31 days ago

There'll be a response in Sydney because there has to be and it wouldn't be that big of a shock if it happened based on the last 7 years or so. In the Sydney Bledisloe in 2017, the All Blacks were 54-6 up after about 50 minutes, the Wallabies scored some late tries to make it somewhat respectable and nearly won in Dunedin a week later. In 2020, the All Blacks thump the Wallabies 43-5 in Sydney and the Wallabies won a week later at Lang Park. In 2022, the Boks beat the Wallabies up at the new SFS and the next performance from the Wallabies was that heartbreaking loss at Marvel Stadium to the All Blacks. A positive response wouldn't be a shock. I'm just concerned about the passive defensive system and how the AB's will exploit that.

r
rs 31 days ago

For the sake of rugby in the SH I hope the Wallabies can turn it around and be ready for the Lions next year.

It is not impossible AR will have to consider using players based outside of Australia. It is inevitable that NZ will follow suit. Bok supporter.

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Tim 30 days ago

It's always insightful to hear whats inevitable for NZ rugby from folk who have probably never set foot in the country. What works for the Boks doesn't necessarily work for other nations.

M
Mitch 31 days ago

For the sake of rugby in the SH I hope the Wallabies can turn it around and be ready for he Lions next year.

That's definitely the sentiment among rugby people here but it feels there are non rugby people here who would love to see their national team lose the series 3-0.

B
Brett McKay 31 days ago

It's certainly not impossible RS, it's even quite likely, and even as soon as the November Tests..

B
BM 31 days ago

Thanks Brett for a more reasoned opinion compared to some of the other stuff written. Your colleague John Ferguson also wrote an insightful piece on the WBs defence structure and how it fell apart.


For me I was disappointed with the result but not carrying on like others. Despite our frailties with 10 to go we were still a chance. I would suggest that there is a lack of on field leadership, someone who takes control and dumb downs the game plan.


The other issue for me is at 10 where we are not dictating play and allowing the outside defence to get up into our centres faces most times before they get the ball, how about a bit of variation. Certainly Barrett & Ioane will tear us apart if we continue down this path

B
Brett McKay 31 days ago

It was certainly a concern BM, the way they switched from playing and leading very well after half an hour, to somehow trailing and then completely unravelling in the second half.


How it happened so starkly will still be causing head-scratching...

S
SK 31 days ago

I am hoping they bounce back to beat the AB's but to be honest Brett it doesnt look like it will happen. Schmidt has been there and done it before for sure but this is also a completely different project to the one he undertook with Ireland. Aus just dont have the resources right now to compete or to allow Schmidt to conduct his rebuild in time for the B&I lions series. They have so little experience (less than 350 caps in last weeks starting line up), fewer and fewer elite athletes thanks to other codes poaching them and are sorely lacking in skills and technique. To make matters worse their mental edge is gone as well and they are very low on morale and confidence. I hate to say it but I reckon they are on a hiding to nothing. They may produce some magic every now and then but otherwise they just dont seem like they can sustain a full 80. They definitely deserve their lowly ranking and is a clear and true reflection of where they are right now

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Brett McKay 31 days ago

I'm glad you said you hope they bounce back SK, it was grim reading after that! 😄

J
JK 31 days ago

No...Aus is going to get beaten like a red-headed stepchild as ABs work through their PTSD from PSDT in RSA

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