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The Breakdown: A statistical look at Saturday's rugby internationals
It’s that time of year again, when the giants of Southern Hemisphere rugby head north to take on Europe’s finest.
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England begin with a chance at revenge for their June series defeat at the hands of South Africa, while Wales and Scotland lock horns for the first time in a November Test.
New Zealand are in Japan to take on next year’s Rugby World Cup hosts, with Ireland heading to the United States to take on Italy.
With the help of Opta, we take a statistical look at Saturday’s feast of international rugby.
England v South Africa
England have an alarmingly poor record against the Springboks, having lost 13 of the last 16 meetings between the teams (W2, D1).
Eddie Jones’ men won the last encounter but have not registered back-to-back victories in the fixture since winning seven in a row from 2000 to 2006.
With that in mind, England will look to capitalise on home advantage and have triumphed in 14 of their last 15 games at Twickenham, their only loss coming in their most recent match there against Ireland, and they have won each of their last nine end-of-year Tests.
South Africa, by contrast, have won only two of their last eight.
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Owen Farrell is just 10 points away from reaching 700 for his country. Only Jonny Wilkinson (1,179) has reached this milestone for England.
Continue reading below…
Watch: Owen Farrell reacts to Tuilagi injury and looks ahead to Springboks Test
Ireland v Italy
Six Nations champions Ireland will be full of confidence heading into their November Tests after claiming a series win in Australia, and they have beaten Italy in 23 of their last 24 meetings.
Joe Schmidt’s side will be hoping for a repeat of the performance they produced on their last visit to Chicago’s Soldier Field, when they beat New Zealand 40-29 to halt the All Blacks‘ record-breaking winning run at 18 matches.
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Ireland have won all six of their matches on American soil.
Italy claimed an historic win over South Africa in their November series two years ago but have since lost 17 of 19 Tests, beating only Fiji and Japan.
Jacob Stockdale has proven himself to be a matchwinner for Ireland, scoring 31 tries in 45 games for club and country since the beginning of 2017, including 11 in 11 for his country.
Japan v New Zealand
New Zealand and Japan have only met on three previous occasions, with the All Blacks emerging with the win in all three.
The Cherry Blossoms’ are stepping up preparations for a home Rugby World Cup in 2019 but have won just three of their last eight matches and have never won at Ajinomoto Stadium, where they have played four previous matches.
New Zealand’s total of 145 points scored against Japan in 1995 remains their highest ever total in a Test match, their biggest win over any team (145-17) and Japan’s largest ever Test defeat.
Japan have scored just 28 points per game when playing at home in 2018. Only once in the previous 13 calendar years did they average fewer points per game in Japan (18 points per game in 2011).
The All Blacks have scored 30 or more points in each of their last four away matches and have not done so in five straight matches since a seven-game streak between 1999 and 2000.
Wales v Scotland
Wales and Scotland are familiar foes in the Six Nations but this will be the first ever match between the countries to take place in November.
Their last match outside a Six Nations ended in a 23-9 victory for Wales in August 2003, with current Scotland coach Gregor Townsend starting at fly-half.
Scotland have won just one of their last 11 matches against Wales (L10), who last lost at home to the Scots in 2002 – their only loss in the fixture at the Principality Stadium since it opened in 1999.
Wales are chasing a sixth consecutive Test win for the first time since 2012 but come up against a Scotland side who have scored 28 tries in their eight games in 2018 – five more than any other Six Nations side and eight more than Wales.
Watch: Scotland flanker Jamie Ritchie looks ahead to Wales game
Comments on RugbyPass
Well done Baby Boks we will take the Draw. No 9 senseless long passes in those conditions. let’s move on and hope for some good weather
3 Go to commentsHow did it end a draw. South Africa didn’t score any points as far as I can see
3 Go to commentsNo doubt this will be a fantastic occasion and I plan to be there, but I think the bean counters have won out over the rugby brains. In my opinion, it is foolhardy to give the Black Ferns the experience of playing in front of 60,000+ at Twickenham a year before they might be playing there in a World Cup Final. Better to play France at Twickenham and Black Ferns at Kingsholm. The difference in takings would be miniscule.
1 Go to commentsDom kant
192 Go to commentsBen is a little incel desperately trying to stir the pot and stay relevant. We used to get mad at his articles. Now we just feel sorry for him
192 Go to commentsPerhaps we may need to put an asterisk on NZ’s ‘87 WC win since the Boks weren’t there. You know, just as a reminder. Poor Ben Smith. Go cry somewhere else.
192 Go to commentsNz should have won. I didn't watch the game, but the ref was at fault and the bounce of the ball and the Bokke used the Bomb squad and the Bokke slow the game down and the Bokke scrum. They should remove the scrum. The Bokke are to strong. Not fair. Nz should have won
2 Go to commentsThanks for a much more balanced piece Ned and not that BS that Bin Smuth just posted a short while ago. read this article and then Bin Smuth’s and tell me there isn’t a huge difference🙄
2 Go to commentsWere the Baby Boks part of this game or did the Baby Blacks play themselves?🤔 That man Bin Smuth once again does a little write-up on the game and it is like 95% about the Baby Blacks🤣 Glad he ends off with the Baby Blacks were actually in cruise control for most of the game and weren’t actually playing for the win WTF🤣🤣 Maybe he was expecting the Baby Blacks to run rampant….
3 Go to commentsOne does not expect anything more from Ben Smith who epitomises the worst of New Zealand media arrogance and an inability to balance what he has to say about any team that beats the All Blacks. His reference to context is pathetically thin. He does not comment that Frizell deserved a red card given his blatant manipulation of his body to ensure that he could drop his body weight onto Mbonambi’s lower leg. No mention of the ball lost forward before the All Black’s try (lost in-field of the 5 metre line and gathered beyond). The All Black commitment and effort was superb and there was little in it. Given the Springbok passage to the final and the loss of their hooker in the first three minutes, their resolve and capacity to win their fourth final out of eight attempts (not three out of ten) deserves the praise that has been forthcoming from media around the world, worth reading and listening to. Ben should join his “pundit” friends on TV - he would fit in well. This sort of article reduces any credibility Rugby Pass has ever had. Why persist with this sort of nonsense? The man does his country and a rugby blog a disservice.
192 Go to commentsEtzebeth went on to say: “I would never dream of saying that systems stay in place following a change in captain. To say that would be deeply, deeply, disrespectful of Siya. A while back an Irish person told me they would be fine without Sexton, so I’m just responding to that.”
3 Go to commentsClose games are what we want to see…. What a match it was…. I am sure that everyone was drained by the end of it. The reality of it all there has to be a winner and a loser. The fact that we still talking about it is almost 6 months to the day Rugby is the winner.. Asante sana… Here is to 2027 and what it will bring out.
192 Go to commentsIt’s going to be a good game. COYQ
1 Go to comments“Shock”, the guy was casually saying he was just slightly surprised. Nowadays if you say anything it gets taken completely out of context. Calm down everyone.
156 Go to commentsAll I can say after reading this bitter, sour, sad piece is… Thank you very much! This will be read in the change room just before kick off on 31 August…
192 Go to commentsLook, we know contradicting opinions and wacky comments bring readers and clicks, so well done to RP for allowing always-wrong-Ben to say something here. However RP needs to put a disclaimer next to his comments for their own credibility. NZ was and is incapable of acknowledging their opp beating them. They refused so with Ire and with Arg in 2022 and also the Boks in 2023 x 2. Nothing Ben says here holds water, NZ attacked backwards, except when Kolisi and Kolbe was off And cyncialy took out Bongi, we played without lineouts for 75mins. Kolisi and Kurt-Lee almost scored twice. Thats 3 vs 2 for Boks, but the Boks opportunities was legal. Boks should have been 16-3 up by half time. Tacticaly the Boks attacked better defended better scrummed better (without a hooker) kicked better and crossed the whitewash more times. Boks beat Fr Eng Nz to win in 23, comeon give some credit at least. Even Federer Verstappen NY Mets, Mamoa, was able to see a great human sport achievement by the Boks and their DNA Boks #RWC27 !🏉
192 Go to commentsForget the 85kg bit, that can become something else. However I do like the one off test on ANZAC day idea. SR plays Fri/ Sat, test players travel Sunday and the squads have the full week together before playing Saturday. Rest of SR has a week off. Either involve women's teams in same location or in the other country and rotate annually. Herbert is right in that change is needed.
3 Go to commentsI’ve read loads of nonsense before but this article takes the cake. Or perhaps someone changed the date for April Fool's Day.
3 Go to commentsReally Rugbypass? Ben Smith I think you forgot what the Springboks did to the All Blacks at Twickenham 8 weeks earlier? Springboks 35 All Blacks 7. There is alot of ifs and buts in your article. The All Blacks threw the sink at the Springboks and unfortunately they were not good enough regardless if they played with 14 men or not. It was the Springboks who forced the All Blacks to make mistakes! Sorry but not Sorry the Springboks is the best ever Rugby World Cup Nation in the world. 4 Cups baby!
192 Go to commentsYou just backed the Boks with that fantastic review! Well done! Have some cake!
192 Go to comments