A Six Nations relegation playoff beats Springbok accession
Italy are breaking records, but for all the wrong reasons. Winless in 34 Six Nations games, scoreless in four of those.
The Azzurri, despite their best efforts, are struggling to keep up with the pack.
Since joining the Six Nations in 2000, they have come last 16 times and have never bettered fourth in the table, which they achieved in 2007 and 2013. Italy’s form, or lack thereof, has been stirring the rugby world for some time, but calls are growing for them to relinquish their tournament spot.
This comes amidst reports in South Africa and the UK that SA Rugby are in the process of striking a deal to become a Six Nations participant by 2025, even after committing to the Rugby Championship until at least that date.
Simply tossing aside the Azzurri to make way for the world champions seems heartless – a betrayal even. In the arms race that is the Six Nations, they’ve struggled to keep pace with their more developed colleagues.
Not all of it is their fault. With an average age of just 23, their current squad is very much embryonic, and the pace of the tournament in recent years hasn’t favoured Kieran Crowley’s developing team. An average of 2.47 tries were scored per game in the 2013 Six Nations, whilst in 2021, that figure rocketed to 5.73. This increase in attacking verve has severely hampered the Italians.
It’s like learning to swim in shark-infested waters.
Yet there are green shoots. Impressive performances at age-grade level, including Italy U-20s beating England U-20s last weekend, gives cause for optimism.
Former Harlequins head coach Paul Gustard, now Benetton’s assistant coach, lauded the coming generation of Italian stallions. He told RugbyPass that 23-year-old Italy captain Michele Lamaro and 19-year-old Tommaso Menoncello, are among the best young players he’s coached.
Yet the Italian fixture is still viewed by the rest of the competition as a given – a presumed four or five points on the Six Nations log.
“When you look at the fixture list over the course of a weekend, the Italian game is always a little bit of dead rubber,” former Ireland fullback Rob Kearney said on Virgin Media Sport after Italy’s loss to England over the weekend.
Simply removing the “dead rubber” would not resolve the crisis at hand. For the appeal of a three-match weekend to remain, there needs to be six teams in the tournament and so if Italy depart, another team must fill that void.
South Africa are now hot favourites to replace the men in blue and the groundwork for this has been laid. The Rainbow Nation’s players and clubs have already migrated to Europe in the guise of the United Rugby Championship.
The Lions, Bulls, Sharks and Stormers all waved goodbye to Super Rugby in 2021 to join the Pro-14, birthing the URC.
Then there’s CVC Capital Partners, the private equity firm that holds a 1/7th share in Six Nations Rugby, a 28 per cent share of PRO14 Rugby and 27 per cent of the Gallagher Premiership. It’s no leap to imagine that their interest lies in squaring the circle and welcoming the Springboks to the Six Nations party.
In a playing sense and a monetary sense, the world champions would be an upgrade on the Azzurri but would challenge the root of the Six Nations as a European event. For many, what makes the annual competition so appealing are the rivalries and the geographical proximity. The sense of a shared history.
“Shoving in a behemoth like South Africa would alter the nature of the beast entirely,” argued BBC 5 Live Sport commentator Sonja McLaughlan on Twitter. “The history and rivalry of the Six Nations is worth protecting.”
A recent poll by Rugby Inside Line supported this, with only 11 per cent of responders favouring South Africa replacing Italy.
Japan are also part of the Six Nations Rugby equation, even if an increasingly remote one. The Brave Blossoms are not tipped to join the tournament – with the Rugby Championship a more likely home for the unlikely heroes of the 2015 and 2019 Rugby World Cups.
Both South Africa and Japan have the economic clout and potential television audience to appear in the Six Nations but their location is a problem. A flight from London to Johannesburg or from Rome to Tokyo will take you 11 hours. Hardly a weekend jaunt.
And that doesn’t just affect players, but travelling fans as well.
A more rational alternative to the Springboks lies closer to home and could, in the long term, benefit Italy without throwing them into the rugby’s phantom zone.
If rugby really aspires to be a meritocracy, then a playoff game where the winner of the wooden spoon plays the winner of the European Rugby Championship for a Six Nations remains the most equitable option.
In the aforementioned Rugby Inside Line poll, 79 per cent of people liked the idea of a relegation playoff game and former British & Irish Lions captain Sam Warburton agrees.
“Italy are not good enough to compete at this level,” Warburton said on BBC Sport last year. “I think there’s got to be relegation in the Six Nations. We can’t keep a glass ceiling on these teams.”
Warburton added that the Six Nations loser should have a home-field advantage. Other alternatives include holding the game at a neutral venue or extending it over two legs, with each side hosting a fixture.
You would expect the playoff to have strong viewing figures, especially given that all Six Nations supporters would have a vested interest in the result.
And going off Italy’s track record to date, should they end up bottom of the Six Nations, they would likely prevail in a playoff. They’ve never lost to Georgia, the perenial winners of the Rugby Europe Championshhip.
Surely that’s a risk that the FIR should embrace rather than shirk?
As for the European Rugby Championship representative, even if they lost, they would gain significant royalties and invaluable match experience against a team they might only face in a World Cup year.
“Sport relies on brilliance but it also relies on jeopardy,” David Flatman said when commentating for ITV last year. “What’s at stake for Italy beyond mere pride? Italy have made zero progress, despite more than two decades of exposure to top level rugby. Other teams now deserve it.”
Therein lies the central appeal of a relegation playoff – it extends a ladder to lower-ranked rugby nations and offers a chance at growth on and off the field. It gives the likes of Georgia, Romania and Russia more to play for and offers Italy the opportunity to answer its critics and justify its ongoing Six Nations inclusion.
The argument against this runs that if Italy were relegated, sponsorship deals could be lost, severely weakening not only the international team but Benetton and Zebre Parma too.
On the flip side, a sense of jeopardy can strengthen rugby’s infrastructure across Europe. It should also force the Italians to fight or fall, potentially making the side more competitive in the Six Nations.
Yet, as it stands, relegation looks like it’s off the table.
In 2019, the chief executive of the RFU Bill Sweeney told RugbyPass that relegation would not be an option as the tier two rugby nations lacked the commercial pedigree to sufficiently support broadcast and sponsorship rights, ticketing and hospitality.
In short, the numbers have to add up.
And what of the Italian rugby fan? When a team is losing, supporters become less invested and that is what has happened with Italy.
Only a few weeks ago, Six Nations chief executive Ben Morel ruled out relegation for Italy, even if they remain winless. He instead suggested that meaningful test fixtures should be set up in the summer and autumn windows to help grow lower-level rugby.
What Tier 2 nations lack is exposure to regular competition against Tier 1 nations and the odd international fixture wouldn’t rectify this problem.
There have been murmurings that a multi-tiered international competition, dubbed the Nations Championship, could come into force after the 2023 World Cup, but one could be forgiven for doubting that rugby unions across the globe and private clubs in France and England have the ability to agree on a path forward.
And yes, Italy might take some convincing since they’re the most at risk of relegation; but given this week’s news, surely it beats being replaced by the Springboks.
Comments on RugbyPass
An on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
24 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
24 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
24 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
24 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
11 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to comments