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Champions Cup 'moving day' will separate men from boys - Andy Goode
A bit like the third day of a major golf championship, Round 4 is ‘moving day’ in the Champions Cup and will separate the men from the boys.
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They may have lost away in France in Round 2 but Leinster are still the champions and remain the team to beat but Saracens’ run of 21 games unbeaten in all competitions will have people starting to back them instead and Racing are the other main contender, having won all of their games and been finalists in two of the last three seasons.
Toulouse have been a bit of a surprise package as not many people would have picked them to win all three of their opening games but Leinster are still well-placed to win that pool. With two home games left against Wasps and Bath, though, you can ink Toulouse in as a best runner-up already.
I think Racing, Saracens and Munster will be the teams to join Leinster as home quarter-finalists because everyone is beating each other in Pool 5, so it’s hard to see the winner of that one getting enough points to avoid being on the road.
Montpellier are still the team to beat in that pool for me, though, despite Edinburgh and Newcastle looking like they’re sitting pretty at the moment. I can see them beating Toulon and Falcons at home and then travelling to Scotland knowing that a win will see them through.
Montpellier against Toulon is one of the games of the round this weekend because whoever loses that one is out. The last time Toulon didn’t have European rugby beyond January was a decade ago back in 2009 but they’ve been woeful at times and are looking to a avoid a 10th defeat of the season already and this is just the 15th match.
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Exeter and Scarlets have been the two major disappointments of the tournament so far, with the Welshmen failing to build on their semi-final appearance last time around.
The Chiefs will still have a major say in who comes out on top in Pool 2 but they need a miracle bigger than the one they pulled off a couple of years ago to win the group from here.
It’s going to be tight in the race for the three best runners-up spots but Gloucester have given themselves a hell of a chance with their victory at Sandy Park last week. I still feel like Munster might be the only team to progress from that pool though.
Glasgow have been really impressive so far and their ability to pick up bonus points as well as wins means I think they’ll make it through but there’s no stopping Saracens in Pool 3. They’ve learned their lesson from not finishing top of their group last season, which meant they had to travel to Leinster in the quarter-finals, and aren’t going to let that happen again.
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Ulster’s win at Parc y Scarlets was the big result of Round 3 and that’s given them a good chance of finishing second in Pool 4. Leicester will still feel they can grab a best runner-up berth if they win all of their remaining games but their form hasn’t been good enough and the men from Belfast look more likely.
Lyon and Scarlets are the only two teams to have lost all three of their opening games and the first half of the pool stages has shown that the tournament is even more competitive than last season and anyone can beat anyone else on their day.
The likes of Toulon, Cardiff Blues, Castres and Leicester, if they don’t produce a big performance at Welford Road, are set to join the list of teams to have fallen by the wayside this weekend as the men are separated from the boys.
The cream is rising to the top, though, with ‘moving day’ set to see the big names edge closer to securing a home quarter-final and it’ll be a major shock if the winner doesn’t come from the elite trio of Leinster, Racing and Saracens.
Comments on RugbyPass
Hi Nick. Thanks for your +++ ongoing analysis. Re Vunivalu, He’s been benched recently and it will be interesting to see what Kiss does with him as we enter the backend of SRP. I’m still not sold.
80 Go to commentsIn the fine tradition of Irish rugby, Leinster cheat well and for some reason only known to whoever referees them, they are allowed to get away with it every single game. If teams have not got the physicality up front to stop them getting the ball, they will win every single game. They take out players beyond the ruck and often hold them on the ground. Those that are beyond the ruck and therefore offside, hover there to cause distraction but also to join the next ruck from the side thereby stopping the jackal. The lineout prior to the second try on Saturday. 3 Leinster players left the lineout before the ball was thrown and were driving the maul as soon as the player hit the ground and thereby getting that valuable momentum. They scrummage illegally, with the looshead turning in to stop the opposing tighthead from pushing straight and making it uncomfortable for the hooker. The tighthead takes a step and tries to get his opposite loosehead to drop the bind. Flankers often ‘move up’ and actually bind on the prop and not remain bound to the second row. It does cause chaos and is done quickly and efficiently so that referees are blinded by the illegal tactics. I am surprised opposition coaches when they meet referees before games don’t mention it. I am also surprised that they do not go to the referees group and ask them to look at the tactics used and referee them properly. If they are the better team and win, fair play but a lot of their momentum is gained illegally and therefore it is not a level playing field.
1 Go to commentsI’d be fascinated to see what other candidates you all might have for the Lions captaincy role. Let me know, below 👍
1 Go to comments“ planning for the next cycle….” Sigh ill-advised language Elton old juice bean. Ppersonally glad you self-eliminated yourself, there were better players in the position around you.
3 Go to commentsRegardless of best in world etc. Lawes was outstanding against Leinster and has been all season. Looked like three try saving turnovers. His turnovers also contributed to NH scores. Immense performance.
2 Go to commentsDickson now considered the top ref in England it appears. Good that these series are getting one NH and one SH ref.
2 Go to commentsI don’t think any coach or selector would ever rely on Blackadder being available for selection. I didn’t think it would be possible but he has easily eclipsed Ennor as they most injured player of all time. IMO a symptom of today’s game where players are required to carry at least 10kg of extra mass from when they first hit the scene in their early 20s. Some players respond well to this, maybe due to genetics allowing them to recover faster, or not having reached their peak natural weight yet, but for others the constant training to maintain their weight eats away at recovery time and they spend most of their careers injured.
4 Go to commentsThanks for the lesson Nick! I presume that targeting gaps is situational because if a ball carrier straightens the line they can't be allowed a gap to run into? It feels like you need depth if you're going to pass it wide and plenty of variety - straight running, kicks just in behind, cross kicks etc. BTW what an incredible bench Toulouse had this week. People complain about Leinster being stacked but they need to be at the very highest level.
20 Go to comments2015 was by far the best team. They have had many good backlines over the years but the 2015 team was one of the few to have an absolute world class forward pack - all of them international quality. 6 ABs, 1 future English player, and one that would have gone on to ABs had he not been forced to retire due to concussion. This current team doesn’t have the same size and experience at lock, but providing they can keep this many talented young players (who have all significantly increased their profile this year) together for another 2 years they could eclipse the 2015 team.
2 Go to commentsAnd I’ve just seen RA has topped up the offer to Paisami and extended it beyond 3 years and he’s signed. Great news
80 Go to commentsInteresting watching Amaua starting to fire. No idea why he was pulled so early against the Reds.
4 Go to commentsNice to read something positive about Vunivalu; it doesn’t happen often. I despair for rugby in Oz. Unless some form of compensation for the teams producing players is devised, there is no obvious way for us to combat poachers coming to grab players in their prime with bigger pay cheques. A return to the SR crowds we were getting in 2010-2014 and a quadrupling of the TV deal would be a start but I don’t see how those things happen. Perhaps the government could be encouraged to deliver tax breaks like in Ireland?
80 Go to commentsI wasn’t aware that the blitz targeted space so, as usual, something learned from reading one of your articles, Nick. Watching the game live I attributed the Saints’ inaccuracy to their own mistakes and nerves. Perhaps some credit to the Leinster D.
20 Go to commentsGotta give it to you Graham, you support your players and team to the hilt. There may be strains of exaggeration laced throughout but gotta love the passionate parochialism.
2 Go to commentsNice one Nick. No doubt Vunivalu’s involvements and work rate are improving this year in attack, but I still think he is too raw on the defensive and backfield part of his game to be considered as a starter. Wales would just kick and run it to his side all night as the brumbies have done to good effect in the past. But, his size/power will keep him in the convo with Mark N leaving and Petaia’s injury record. Hunter definitely enjoying an injury-free run this season and being given the keys by Kiss - I have always been a fan of his. All I’d say is that his triple threat has been evident since 2020/21. I remember him making a grubber for a petaia try after the siren to beat the Brumbies in Canberra after the 80th minute in 2021. Lastly, Jock Campbell, who I know isn’t at the top of your list, I thought had alot of positive involvements in the saders game including both of Tim ryan’s tries and Mcreights
80 Go to commentsAg please, Pieter Stef Du Toit has played circles around this clown.
2 Go to commentsJust celebrating the Bok’s 1648th consecutive day as RWC champions. They are also the Qatar Airways Cup winners, which I know BennieBoy cares about a lot.
2 Go to commentsGood to here positive stories towards Aus Rugby. Although that might be the case, and highers up are right about Jordie, I wouldn’t stress trying to retain him. What I have seen of him in recent times is that he’s not using that something special. I feel there a better ‘something special’ options coming through that they won’t have to compete with league for, hell even in Kerevi and Paisami (isn’t it great to finally see his ability getting recognized, probably taking this article in isolation too much here).
80 Go to commentsgreat article! I wonder whether we will we see Ireland adopt the Nienaber blitz? All the teams who have tried it so far (SA included) have gone through significant teething problems in the first season; Ireland could possibly be in the unique position of being able to switch to a hard blitz in season 2 of a world cup cycle and already have so many players used to the system that it can be implemented seamlessly.
20 Go to commentsThey probably left another 20 on the field to be fair. Also - the officiating was… ordinary.
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