Why the Chiefs' season hangs in the balance as they prepare to face off against the ruthless Crusaders
While taking out the Super Rugby Aotearoa title with just six wins from eight matches is entirely possible, doing so with just five victories under the belt seems unlikely at best. That means the Chiefs face the very real threat of being eliminated from title-contention this weekend if they can’t turn things around against the Crusaders.
Warren Gatland’s tenure with the Chiefs started so promisingly. The Waikato men went unbeaten in their first three matches, where they picked up especially important wins against the Blues and the Crusaders. By the time the competition was called off due to the global pandemic, the Chiefs were sitting on fifth place on the table with four victories from six games.
While losses at home to the Brumbies and the Hurricanes left Gatland with a few fix-ons, expectations around the country were that the Chiefs would enter the New Zealand-only edition of the competition as the biggest roadblock to the Crusaders nailing a fourth title on the bounce.
We’re now two weeks into Super Rugby Aotearoa and the public perception of the Chiefs will have shifted markedly.
The Crusaders looked lethal against the Hurricanes in their only run-out so far while the Blues have done the deed against the Hurricanes in Auckland and now the Chiefs in Hamilton.
The Chiefs also lost their first-up match against the Highlanders in Dunedin, which leaves them second bottom on the ladder – just a point ahead of the Hurricanes.
With new rules and interpretations coming into play in the new competition, there’s probably been a larger amount of luck involved in the two rounds to date than what you’d normally see in Super Rugby. Referees, players and coaches are all still coming to terms with the severity that the breakdown has been officiated and the consistency is understandably still not quite there.
That’s no excuse for the Chiefs’ losses, however. The Crusaders only had their first taste of Aotearoa action over the weekend and while they were certainly on the losing side of the penalty count, their class shone through and they scored 5 tries over the 80 minutes on a wet and windy Wellington day.
By comparison, the Chiefs have managed just two tries over their two matches, with both being scored under the roof against the Highlanders.
Unlike at the start of the year, the Chiefs have also had all of their All Blacks on unrestricted minutes.
Unfortunately, as with seasons gone by, the Gatland-coached side have rarely had a full contingent to pull from.
Nathan Harris was ruled out for the year prior to Super Rugby’s initial kick-off in January (and fellow hooker Liam Polwart retired due to concussion) while Atu Moli, Mitchell Brown, Michael Allardice and now Luke Jacobson have all been invalided for the rest of the season. Angus Ta’avao also hasn’t featured since the opening game of the campaign while Sam Cane seems to be touch and go every week and Brodie Retallick is on sabbatical.
That’s an exceptional amount of experience that the Chiefs have to manage without and while any side would struggle given the circumstances, that doesn’t let Gatland off the hook entirely.
Even before the break, when the Chiefs were winning matches, things weren’t exactly going entirely smoothly.
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Of the four matches they won, the Chiefs had to overcome sizeable deficits at halftime in two of those games – against the Blues and the Crusaders. It was really only against the Waratahs and the Sunwolves – two sides that managed a solitary win each, that the Chiefs were in control for the majority of the match.
Regardless, the wins were at least coming – which can’t be said for the last two matches the Waikato men have played.
That doesn’t mean it’s time to freak out, of course.
One of the worst-performing areas for the Chiefs has been the lineout. That’s almost unavoidable, given that they’ve been shorn of their first-choice hooker as well as Brodie Retallick (on sabbatical), Allardice, Brown and Tyler Ardron.
Samison Taukei’aho has suddenly been thrust into the starting role for the Chiefs in 2020, despite being just 22 years old. By contrast, 29-year-old Codie Taylor is the only other hooker to have started a Super Rugby Aotearoa match who is hasn’t yet hit 30.
Factor in that the Chiefs are now running with a pair of 20-year-old locks, and it’s easy to see why they’re only operating with an 81% lineout success rate.
The bigger concern for Gatland will be the breakdown, where the Chiefs seem to have struggled to adapt to the new rules and have failed to build any momentum throughout their two matches or put their opposition under pressure.
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Sunday’s match with the Crusaders will likely make or break the Chiefs season. If they can do the impossible and pick up a win in Christchurch (which no New Zealand team has achieved since 2016) then many of the mistakes of the last two weeks will be forgiven – though they could still come back to haunt the Chiefs later in the season.
If, on the other hand, the Chiefs fall to their third loss of the season, then it’s almost impossible to envisage any scenario except for a disappointing 2020.
No doubt, Aaron Cruden and Damian McKenzie will be the key figures over the weekend but the Chiefs will also be hoping for improved performances from Brad Weber and Anton Lienert-Brown, who’ve been uncharacteristically subdued over the past two weeks.
In the forwards, the possible returns of Cane and Brown will do wonders for the young pack’s confidence but Gatland will still be hoping for greater accuracy from his young prodigy hooker.
The Crusaders have a few injury problems of their own with captain Scott Barrett ruled out for the season and Braydon Ennor and Tom Christie still touch-and-go, but they’ll still be able to field a side oozing with confidence.
Saturday’s match-up between two unbeaten sides in the Blues and the Highlanders may technically showcase teams with better records, but given everything that’s riding on Sunday’s match for the Chiefs, it could well turn into another instant Crusaders/Chiefs classic.
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
25 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
13 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
25 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
13 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
13 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
12 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
13 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
13 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
13 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
13 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
45 Go to comments