If not a first-five, then who will replace McKenzie in the All Blacks?
The news of the ACL injury that left Damian McKenzie’s World Cup hopes in tatters has opened the door to a raft of speculation as to who could replace him in the All Blacks‘ squad for the tournament in Japan later this year.
As a player that covers both first-five and fullback, RugbyPass has delved into potential replacement in both areas, providing left-field solutions in both Hayden Parker at first-five, and Will Jordan at fullback.
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It’s a predicament that has led to many names being thrown around as potential replacements for McKenzie, but hints from All Blacks selector Grant Fox indicate that his side could head to the World Cup without a third-choice first-five behind Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo’unga.
“The way the draw sits, will a first-five get a lot of rugby anyway?” he asked when quizzed on the playmaking situation on Radio Sport.
“Possibly not. Japan is only ten and a half hours away, it’s not hard to get someone up there.
“You need someone [at first-five] to cover those middle two pool games [Canada and Namibia]. Could we get away without a specialist? Possibly.
“Is that risky? Yes. We can only pick 31 so you’ve got to compromise somewhere. Do we compromise at 10, nine or somewhere else?
“We are pretty clear on thought at the moment but it’s something we don’t want to divulge too much.
“You’ve got to worry about your injuries. If you get a late injury before a big game, you are running a hell of a risk.
“Compromise and risk become part of your discussion and we’ve just got to deal with it. But it is a lot easier to get a player to Japan if needed, compared to the UK in 2015.”
With Fox publicly questioning the value of having a third first-five with the services of McKenzie unavailable to the side, the prospect of having Parker, or any other pivot who has been mentioned as a possible replacement, including Otere Black, Brett Cameron, Mitch Hunt, Josh Ioane, Marty McKenzie, Dan Carter and Aaron Cruden, has been significantly diminished.
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Instead, it appears a fullback could be called into the squad in place of McKenzie, with the proximity of Japan close enough to keep a third first-five on stand-by should he be required.
So, if it there is to be no first-five in this year’s World Cup squad, the who are the candidates to replace McKenzie at fullback?
Given that just two first-fives – Barrett and Mo’unga – are likely to be selected, that opens up an additional spot elsewhere in the squad, which could be utilised in the outside backs given the absence of McKenzie.
That means that the number of outside backs in the squad would increase from four to five, with Rieko Ioane and Ben Smith the only solidified selections prior to the McKenzie injury.
If he wasn’t considered a solidified option before McKenzie’s ACL rupture, then Jordie Barrett’s name must surely be firmly inked into the team sheet due to his versatility and broad skill set.
That leaves two remaining outside back slots to be sewn up, and there are a vast array of contenders competing to fill those spots.
George Bridge and Waisake Naholo loom as the favourites to take those last two spots, as both were included in the All Blacks’ recent ‘foundation day’ camp held in Wellington earlier this month.
Bridge has proven to be a handful for opposition defences in Super Rugby recent years thanks to his speed and elusive ball-running, while Naholo is a well-known power runner and has a deft finishing ability that has made him the Highlanders’ all-time leading try-scorer.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that either player is guaranteed a spot in the national set-up, though.
While he has impressed for the Crusaders this year and has test match experienced via last year’s clash against Japan, Bridge has been suffering from a knee/hamstring injury for about a month now, which could be of some concern for the All Blacks selectors, and could put him under pressure to win a starting spot back from teammates who have shone in his absence.
Those teammates will also be piling the pressure on Naholo, who had been badly out of form for the Highlanders and was yet to score this year before sustaining an MCL injury that has also seen him sidelined for a month.
The selectors know the ball-carrying power that the 27-year-old possesses, as well as the to-end speed he has displayed over the course of his professional career, but if his decline in form continues as the World Cup nears, questions will need to be asked if his imminent selection can be validated.
Outside of those two, young Crusaders trio Braydon Ennor, Will Jordan and Sevu Reece have all been in sparkling form, as has Worcester-bound Blues fullback Melani Nanai, while others such as Nehe Milner-Skudder, Chase Tiatia and Matt Duffie can only be considered outside chances at this stage.
One player who has stood out thanks to not only his form but also his positional flexibility is Crusaders fullback David Havili.
A three-test All Black, Havili hasn’t featured in the national side since 2017, but has been stupendous for the back-to-back reigning Super Rugby champions as they pursue a second-ever hat-trick of titles.
The 24-year-old has been difficult to bring down for opposition defenders, as shown in his season statistics, which shows he places in the competition’s top 10 for line breaks and is second for tackle busts.
With a low error rate and a booming punt which has been used on occasion for the Crusaders, Havili presents a case for being not only a safe and secure option with test match experience, but also an option that is in form and has proven his ability to successfully take on defenders when required.
What’s more is that he doesn’t just cover the outside back roles of fullback and wing, but he is also a proven operator in the midfield during his time in the Mitre 10 Cup with Tasman, a side of which he has also goal kicked for.
Havili’s ability to play at both second-five and centre, as well as wing and fullback, could be the point of difference between him and the rest of the competition should selections in the outside backs become tight, as they are expected to be.
Fox indicated towards the idea of having someone play out of position at first-five for pool matches against Canada and Namibia in order to prevent Barrett and Mo’unga from burning out or picking up needless knocks and bruises, and with Havili’s wide skill set and positional versatility, he could be the man to fill that role.
However, Jordie Barrett possesses similar attributes, and with his position in the squad firmly entrenched as a result of McKenzie’s injury, the All Blacks selectors may not want more than one utility option in place of a specialist outside back.
So, as it stands, Bridge and Naholo lead the race for the two final positions in the outside backs department.
But, through a raft of contenders at Super Rugby level, headlined by Havili, the race for a World Cup spot is still wide open, and the winners still have a long way to go yet before anything is decided.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Pick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
15 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
15 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
15 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
15 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
14 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
15 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
15 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
15 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to comments