Why the Chiefs' season hangs in the balance as they prepare to face off against the ruthless Crusaders
While taking out the Super Rugby Aotearoa title with just six wins from eight matches is entirely possible, doing so with just five victories under the belt seems unlikely at best. That means the Chiefs face the very real threat of being eliminated from title-contention this weekend if they can’t turn things around against the Crusaders.
Warren Gatland’s tenure with the Chiefs started so promisingly. The Waikato men went unbeaten in their first three matches, where they picked up especially important wins against the Blues and the Crusaders. By the time the competition was called off due to the global pandemic, the Chiefs were sitting on fifth place on the table with four victories from six games.
While losses at home to the Brumbies and the Hurricanes left Gatland with a few fix-ons, expectations around the country were that the Chiefs would enter the New Zealand-only edition of the competition as the biggest roadblock to the Crusaders nailing a fourth title on the bounce.
We’re now two weeks into Super Rugby Aotearoa and the public perception of the Chiefs will have shifted markedly.
The Crusaders looked lethal against the Hurricanes in their only run-out so far while the Blues have done the deed against the Hurricanes in Auckland and now the Chiefs in Hamilton.
The Chiefs also lost their first-up match against the Highlanders in Dunedin, which leaves them second bottom on the ladder – just a point ahead of the Hurricanes.
With new rules and interpretations coming into play in the new competition, there’s probably been a larger amount of luck involved in the two rounds to date than what you’d normally see in Super Rugby. Referees, players and coaches are all still coming to terms with the severity that the breakdown has been officiated and the consistency is understandably still not quite there.
That’s no excuse for the Chiefs’ losses, however. The Crusaders only had their first taste of Aotearoa action over the weekend and while they were certainly on the losing side of the penalty count, their class shone through and they scored 5 tries over the 80 minutes on a wet and windy Wellington day.
By comparison, the Chiefs have managed just two tries over their two matches, with both being scored under the roof against the Highlanders.
Unlike at the start of the year, the Chiefs have also had all of their All Blacks on unrestricted minutes.
Unfortunately, as with seasons gone by, the Gatland-coached side have rarely had a full contingent to pull from.
Nathan Harris was ruled out for the year prior to Super Rugby’s initial kick-off in January (and fellow hooker Liam Polwart retired due to concussion) while Atu Moli, Mitchell Brown, Michael Allardice and now Luke Jacobson have all been invalided for the rest of the season. Angus Ta’avao also hasn’t featured since the opening game of the campaign while Sam Cane seems to be touch and go every week and Brodie Retallick is on sabbatical.
That’s an exceptional amount of experience that the Chiefs have to manage without and while any side would struggle given the circumstances, that doesn’t let Gatland off the hook entirely.
Even before the break, when the Chiefs were winning matches, things weren’t exactly going entirely smoothly.
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Of the four matches they won, the Chiefs had to overcome sizeable deficits at halftime in two of those games – against the Blues and the Crusaders. It was really only against the Waratahs and the Sunwolves – two sides that managed a solitary win each, that the Chiefs were in control for the majority of the match.
Regardless, the wins were at least coming – which can’t be said for the last two matches the Waikato men have played.
That doesn’t mean it’s time to freak out, of course.
One of the worst-performing areas for the Chiefs has been the lineout. That’s almost unavoidable, given that they’ve been shorn of their first-choice hooker as well as Brodie Retallick (on sabbatical), Allardice, Brown and Tyler Ardron.
Samison Taukei’aho has suddenly been thrust into the starting role for the Chiefs in 2020, despite being just 22 years old. By contrast, 29-year-old Codie Taylor is the only other hooker to have started a Super Rugby Aotearoa match who is hasn’t yet hit 30.
Factor in that the Chiefs are now running with a pair of 20-year-old locks, and it’s easy to see why they’re only operating with an 81% lineout success rate.
The bigger concern for Gatland will be the breakdown, where the Chiefs seem to have struggled to adapt to the new rules and have failed to build any momentum throughout their two matches or put their opposition under pressure.
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Sunday’s match with the Crusaders will likely make or break the Chiefs season. If they can do the impossible and pick up a win in Christchurch (which no New Zealand team has achieved since 2016) then many of the mistakes of the last two weeks will be forgiven – though they could still come back to haunt the Chiefs later in the season.
If, on the other hand, the Chiefs fall to their third loss of the season, then it’s almost impossible to envisage any scenario except for a disappointing 2020.
No doubt, Aaron Cruden and Damian McKenzie will be the key figures over the weekend but the Chiefs will also be hoping for improved performances from Brad Weber and Anton Lienert-Brown, who’ve been uncharacteristically subdued over the past two weeks.
In the forwards, the possible returns of Cane and Brown will do wonders for the young pack’s confidence but Gatland will still be hoping for greater accuracy from his young prodigy hooker.
The Crusaders have a few injury problems of their own with captain Scott Barrett ruled out for the season and Braydon Ennor and Tom Christie still touch-and-go, but they’ll still be able to field a side oozing with confidence.
Saturday’s match-up between two unbeaten sides in the Blues and the Highlanders may technically showcase teams with better records, but given everything that’s riding on Sunday’s match for the Chiefs, it could well turn into another instant Crusaders/Chiefs classic.
Comments on RugbyPass
Wasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
3 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
3 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
3 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
30 Go to comments