What rugby union can't admit to itself about TMOs and how the last two weekends proved it
Eleven-plus probability and elite-level test match rugby are unlikely bedfellows.
But for those gripped by the denouement of England’s truly thunderous test matches against South Africa and New Zealand, they became intrinsically linked.
The thing about a 50/50 call – even for us non-mathematicians – is that the eventual outcome is equally likely to go in either direction.
And over the course of two Twickenham Saturdays, that is exactly what happened to Eddie Jones’s team.
When the TMO was consulted on Owen Farrell’s overtime tackle on Andre Esterhuizen, he decreed that England’s flyhalf had made at least some attempt to wrap his arms around the South African. This rendered it legal and secured a one-point win for the hosts rather than the two-point defeat that a penalty award would probably have delivered.
Continue reading below…
Eddie Jones reacts after England loss to the All Blacks
Seven days on, the man in the TV van decided Courtney Lawes was offside prior to making the 75th minute charge-down from which Sam Underhill claimed a ‘try’ which would have put England a score ahead of the All Blacks. As a consequence, England lost by the same one-point margin.
Inevitably, criticism of the match officials has followed both decisions, since another feature of a 50/50 call is that half us disagree with the outcome. And since Jerome Garces’ coin fell against England at Twickenham, there is no prize for guessing how the British media typically viewed the Lawes decision.
One regular feature of this criticism is that the presence of the TMO should eradicate all errors. Put another way, these commentators believe hindsight, for the man in the TV van, should be an exact science.
But surely the use of technology over many years has taught us differently. While the introduction of the TMO, third umpire or video ref has largely eradicated the complete ‘howler,’ in less clear-cut situations it often shifts rather than resolves the debate.
So while Andy Haden’s match-clinching dive out of a lineout at Cardiff in the late 70’s would now result in a yellow card for gamesmanship and a penalty to Wales, we are still unclear whether Mark Cueto scored in the 2007 World Cup final.
To draw a parallel with cricket – where technology works with huge success – consider a situation where the umpire is unsure if a ball pitched outside leg stump in assessing an lbw appeal.
The TV company shades the stump-to-stump area on the screen, but the ball pitches on the edge of it. A zoomed-in view then shows the seam of the ball to be exactly down the virtual line drawn on the outside of leg stump. Is 51 per cent of the ball in the shaded area or outside it? Technology has not removed the debate, it has simply changed it.
Throw rugby union’s complex laws into the mix and this search for certainty becomes even more futile. Good refereeing, especially at the higher levels of the game, is much more about communication and management than minutely scrutinising a match for law infractions.
And this is possibly why the use of the TMO for 50/50 calls such as these does not sit well with many. When Jerome Garces asked Marius Jonker to take a look at the Lawes charge-down, he introduced – for the only time in 80 minutes – slide-rule accuracy to the decision-making process.
Was it a ruck or a tackle? Where was the offside line for non-participants? Did this line move before the ruck was over? Was the player at the front of the ruck (who creates the offside line) bound into it? When did the ruck end – as the ball emerged or when the scrum half lifted it?
There are so many law questions relevant to this decision, that making them with 100 per cent accuracy in real time is impossible. Critics point out that this was also the case at every other breakdown throughout the match, but given the pivotal nature of this particular call, surely Mr Garces had every right to seek assistance?
A number of highly-respected journalists, including the two biggest names writing in the British broadsheets, strongly disagree with this opinion. They believe the referee should have gone with his gut instinct, backed his judgement and awarded a try, since there was no clear and obvious infringement.
However, which of us can honestly say we would not have used an available safety net at such a crucial moment? Why risk being proven wrong by a subsequent TV replay?
While continually seeking to review and improve the use of technology is entirely logical, our sport has to be very careful about how this is done. We have to move forward, develop and evolve, not take a backward step by reducing the referee’s ability to enhance his decision making.
As the same teacher who explained probability to me many moons ago liked to say, the toothpaste cannot go back into the tube.
Comments on RugbyPass
Nz should have won. I didn't watch the game, but the ref was at fault and the bounce of the ball and the Bokke used the Bomb squad and the Bokke slow the game down and the Bokke scrum. They should remove the scrum. The Bokke are to strong. Not fair. Nz should have won
2 Go to commentsThanks for a much more balanced piece Ned and not that BS that Bin Smuth just posted a short while ago. read this article and then Bin Smuth’s and tell me there isn’t a huge difference🙄
2 Go to commentsWere the Baby Boks part of this game or did the Baby Blacks play themselves?🤔 That man Bin Smuth once again does a little write-up on the game and it is like 95% about the Baby Blacks🤣 Glad he ends off with the Baby Blacks were actually in cruise control for most of the game and weren’t actually playing for the win WTF🤣🤣 Maybe he was expecting the Baby Blacks to run rampant….
1 Go to commentsOne does not expect anything more from Ben Smith who epitomises the worst of New Zealand media arrogance and an inability to balance what he has to say about any team that beats the All Blacks. His reference to context is pathetically thin. He does not comment that Frizell deserved a red card given his blatant manipulation of his body to ensure that he could drop his body weight onto Mbonambi’s lower leg. No mention of the ball lost forward before the All Black’s try (lost in-field of the 5 metre line and gathered beyond). The All Black commitment and effort was superb and there was little in it. Given the Springbok passage to the final and the loss of their hooker in the first three minutes, their resolve and capacity to win their fourth final out of eight attempts (not three out of ten) deserves the praise that has been forthcoming from media around the world, worth reading and listening to. Ben should join his “pundit” friends on TV - he would fit in well. This sort of article reduces any credibility Rugby Pass has ever had. Why persist with this sort of nonsense? The man does his country and a rugby blog a disservice.
188 Go to commentsEtzebeth went on to say: “I would never dream of saying that systems stay in place following a change in captain. To say that would be deeply, deeply, disrespectful of Siya. A while back an Irish person told me they would be fine without Sexton, so I’m just responding to that.”
3 Go to commentsClose games are what we want to see…. What a match it was…. I am sure that everyone was drained by the end of it. The reality of it all there has to be a winner and a loser. The fact that we still talking about it is almost 6 months to the day Rugby is the winner.. Asante sana… Here is to 2027 and what it will bring out.
188 Go to commentsIt’s going to be a good game. COYQ
1 Go to comments“Shock”, the guy was casually saying he was just slightly surprised. Nowadays if you say anything it gets taken completely out of context. Calm down everyone.
156 Go to commentsAll I can say after reading this bitter, sour, sad piece is… Thank you very much! This will be read in the change room just before kick off on 31 August…
188 Go to commentsLook, we know contradicting opinions and wacky comments bring readers and clicks, so well done to RP for allowing always-wrong-Ben to say something here. However RP needs to put a disclaimer next to his comments for their own credibility. NZ was and is incapable of acknowledging their opp beating them. They refused so with Ire and with Arg in 2022 and also the Boks in 2023 x 2. Nothing Ben says here holds water, NZ attacked backwards, except when Kolisi and Kolbe was off And cyncialy took out Bongi, we played without lineouts for 75mins. Kolisi and Kurt-Lee almost scored twice. Thats 3 vs 2 for Boks, but the Boks opportunities was legal. Boks should have been 16-3 up by half time. Tacticaly the Boks attacked better defended better scrummed better (without a hooker) kicked better and crossed the whitewash more times. Boks beat Fr Eng Nz to win in 23, comeon give some credit at least. Even Federer Verstappen NY Mets, Mamoa, was able to see a great human sport achievement by the Boks and their DNA Boks #RWC27 !🏉
188 Go to commentsForget the 85kg bit, that can become something else. However I do like the one off test on ANZAC day idea. SR plays Fri/ Sat, test players travel Sunday and the squads have the full week together before playing Saturday. Rest of SR has a week off. Either involve women's teams in same location or in the other country and rotate annually. Herbert is right in that change is needed.
3 Go to commentsI’ve read loads of nonsense before but this article takes the cake. Or perhaps someone changed the date for April Fool's Day.
3 Go to commentsReally Rugbypass? Ben Smith I think you forgot what the Springboks did to the All Blacks at Twickenham 8 weeks earlier? Springboks 35 All Blacks 7. There is alot of ifs and buts in your article. The All Blacks threw the sink at the Springboks and unfortunately they were not good enough regardless if they played with 14 men or not. It was the Springboks who forced the All Blacks to make mistakes! Sorry but not Sorry the Springboks is the best ever Rugby World Cup Nation in the world. 4 Cups baby!
188 Go to commentsYou just backed the Boks with that fantastic review! Well done! Have some cake!
188 Go to commentsBen Smith please write up something better than this. The Springboks would have won the world cup if you were 15 men on the field. They would have found a way, they always find a way to beat the All Blacks.
188 Go to commentsWow, there is a lot of “could have” and “ should have” in this waist of time dribble. I love the desperation in this story to search for a glimpse at a silver lining. Here are the facts, NZ was a badly coached and undisciplined shadow of their former glory. They never took the lead in a game they were never going to win.
188 Go to commentsGOTTA MAKE ‘THE GEORGE’ HAPPEN!!!! That’s a great idea! A trans Tasman midget battle on ANZAC Day. I don’t think the ABs Wallabies game should be a one off winner takes all though, just the first match with the other two later in the year with the RC. Reason being, no one will ever shut up about how aussies couldn’t win it when it was a 3 match series.
3 Go to comments@Ben smith. Thats knock out rugby. So honeslty who cares?
188 Go to commentsIt will interesting to know which Irish players said that…
2 Go to commentsNaaaww boys will be boys! Now run along ya wee scamp! Don’t let us catch you at again😏
1 Go to comments