Super Rugby Pacific 2024: Blues and Chiefs to fight for title, Moana to three-peat
The RugbyPass Round Table writers answer the big questions ahead of the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific season. Ben Smith (BS), Finn Morton (FM) and Ned Lester (NL) weigh in on a range of topics and make their predictions for the season.
Which team will win Super Rugby Pacific 2024?
Finn Morton: Let’s start with a sports cliché: no team plans to lose – everyone wants to be a champion. It’s the holy grail waiting at the end of what promises to be another gruelling, taxing and bone-bruising Super Rugby Pacific campaign. But there can only be one winner.
Later this year, the sole team standing triumphantly above the rest at the end of the 2024 season will be the Chiefs. With Luke Jacobson and Damian McKenzie leading the way, a Super Rugby crown will return to the Tron for the first time since 2014.
Clayton McMillan’s men were practically perfect throughout the regular season in 2023. The Queensland Reds came to play in New Plymouth and shocked the competition with an all-time upset last season, but other than that, the men from Hamilton were as good as gold.
While past form doesn’t mean a whole lot now, it’s the lessons from that campaign which will separate the Chiefs from the rest of the pack. Sure, they’re preparing for a season without both Sam Cane and Brad Weber, but they have the talent to more than fill the gaps.
Other pre-season fan favourites for the title include the Crusaders, Blues and Brumbies. The Crusaders – if you block out the aura and prestige that surround them – are no longer the same beast. Losing Richie Mo’unga in particular changes the quality of this team drastically.
The Blues will come close, and maybe even make it to the final, but they will fall short as they so often do. Finally, the Brumbies will obviously want to go all the way, but hosting a home semi-final would likely be seen as a success – and that may be their ceiling at best, too.
Ned Lester: Defence wins championships and it was the Chiefs who conceded the least points in 2023. However, their final opponents, the Crusaders, were more clinical on the defensive side of the ball in the playoffs.
Sam Cane and Brodie Retallick were huge components of the Chiefs’ defence, with the former taking the challenge of chopping down their opponent’s best ball runners on hit-ups. This year, that onus will be on someone else.
If Luke Jacobson can live up to that challenge, and lead by example on the defensive end, he can inspire a championship-worthy performance at the business end of the season. The Chiefs look to be the most complete and capable team in the comp this year.
Ben Smith: The Blues and Chiefs have finished runners up over the last two years, both losing the final at home to Scott Robertson’s Crusaders. With a new era beginning for the Crusaders, one of the two clubs can break the run of titles by the Crusaders and become the 2024 champion.
The Chiefs have most of their team back which bodes well for a run for the title, minus a few All Black veterans Sam Cane, Brad Weber and Brodie Retallick. They should be one of the top two sides in Super Rugby Pacific and lock in home ground advantage for at least the semi-finals.
The Blues have undergone a rebuild after losing the 2022 final and losing momentum in 2023. But they looked slick in pre-season and will be one of the top sides. Their fortunes rest on how their younger players can step up into big roles, Zarn Sullivan, Cameron Suafoa.
The Blues and Chiefs don’t meet until the final round of the regular season in week 15 which is a shame, by then seedings may have already been determined and players might be rested.
The biggest contender from Australia is going to be the Brumbies who year-in, year-out field a strong team with the best pack in Australia.
The final four will be the Blues, Chiefs, Brumbies and the surprise of the year will be Highlanders. I’ll take the Chiefs over the Blues in the final.
Which team will take the wooden spoon this year?
Finn Morton: Looking back at the year that was, the Highlanders, Force, Rebels and Moana Pasifika occupied spots nine to 12 on the ladder as they failed to make the playoffs in 2023. But Super Rugby fans should expect a bit of a reshuffle this time around.
The Highlanders look a lot better in 2024, as their pre-season demolition of the Hurricanes showed in early February. Across the Tasman, the Force defeated the Reds and came close against the Brumbies as well.
But then there’s the Rebels and Moana Pasifika. Both teams will fail to make the grade again this season, although Moana Pasifika will get a few more wins compared to last season – they won’t finish at the bottom of the standings. Instead, it’ll be the Rebels.
Writing a roundtable piece the other day, this writer boldly predicted the Waratahs to come last in Australia, but the latest developments surrounding the Rebels are more than just concern. With coaches reportedly on four-month contracts, it’s hard to see how the Melbourne-based franchise can generate any form of success.
In a direct contradiction to what was written only a few days ago, the Melbourne Rebels will come last while Moana Pasifika improve ever so slightly to an 11th-place finish.
Ned Lester: It’s Moana Pasifika with the biggest hill to climb again in 2024. Just the one win in 2023 was a result no one would wish on the team, and losing Levi Aumua and Timoci Tavatavanawai was a real blow. That being said, newcomers with international experience like Julian Savea, James Lay and Sione Havili Talitui add plenty of veteran leadership to the team, while a new coaching group led by Tana Umaga will look to inject some more sting and cohesion into the squad.
What we really want to see from Moana is a win in round 11, when the team host the Highlanders in Tonga, their first game in the country.
Ben Smith: No one wants to see another uncompetitive season from Moana Pasifika, but they have lost two of their most damaging backs in Timoci Tavatavanawai and Levi Aumua. The signing of Julian Savea will help fill those holes but it likely won’t be enough.
What new head coach Tana Umaga will bring is unknown, the former All Black great hasn’t been able to build a champion team during his coaching career to date and Moana have far less resources than the Blues. The ‘sixth’ New Zealand franchise is up against it after going 1-13 last year.
They will play one game in Tonga which is a step in the right direction. The turnouts at Mt Smart are a big concern as the team tries to build an identity and fan base. They need to actually play in the Pacific nations, if that is who they represent. We’ve seen what playing in Suva does for the Drua and the incredible support they attract at home.
The Rebels have recruited well but the off-the-field financial woes could well derail the season. It will be hard to keep positive when players are jumping ship in order to secure heir futures. That will happen. When presented an offer from a club with more stability, it’s hard to stick around with so much uncertainty surrounding how the club will be funded next year.
The Force, Rebels and Moana are likely to battle it out to avoid the spoon once again but after finishing with a monstrous -256 negative points differential last year, Moana are the favourites to finish last again.
Comments on RugbyPass
“Cortez Ratima is light years ahead of anyone on current form, while TJ Perenara has also skyrocketed into contention following the unfortunate injury to the talented Cam Roigard.” At last some sanity. Hitherto so many pundits have been wittering on about Finlay Christie to the point one wondered if they were observing a FC in a parallel universe where the FC they saw wasnt just the mediocre Shayne Philpott project of Fosters hapless AB reign in the real world. Ratima, Perenara and Fakatava are the ONLY logical 9s for Razor now Roigard is crocked.
2 Go to commentsThis game was just as painful as the Hurricanes game. It was real fork-in-the-eye stuff.
2 Go to commentsNow if they could just fire the Crusaders ground PA guy who likes to play his dance music and just loves the sound of his own voice the entire game, even when play is going on. And I thought their brass band thing of a few years ago was bad.
5 Go to commentsUnfortunately when you lose by far the two form players this season in Roigard and Aumua, you're left replacing two game changing Tanks with a couple of pea-shooters. Which is also about the speed of TJs pass.
2 Go to commentsBit rich coming from the guy with zero loyalty to anyone or any team, including happily taking a players place in a league world cup squad because well, SBW wanted to play in it and thus an already named player got told he was no longer going. And airing stuff like this, which may or may not be true, doesn't exactly say you're a stand up guy either SBW. Just looking to keep his name in lights as usual.
37 Go to commentsTamati Tua. …the Taniwha NPC midfielder. Ollie Sapsford, Hawkes Bay NPC midfielder…doing well
2 Go to commentsFiji deserve to be in the rugby championship, fans love seeing the Fijian national team play, the Fijian Drua is a wonderful idea but the players can still be stolen to play for NZ and AUS…
1 Go to commentsThe first concern for this afternoon are wheather forecast…
1 Go to commentsWhy cant I watch Rugby games please?
1 Go to commentsBeautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
5 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
33 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
4 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
5 Go to comments