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Super Rugby Pacific 2024: Crusaders to crumble, Brumbies will shine
The RugbyPass Round Table writers answer the big questions ahead of the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific season. Ben Smith (BS), Finn Morton (FM) and Ned Lester (NL) weigh in on a range of topics and make their predictions for the season.
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Which teams will be the best and worst Kiwi sides?
Ben Smith: The Crusaders have long been the benchmark for the entire competition under Scott Robertson, but they have looked off the pace in their pre-season fixtures.
Yes, it’s only pre-season but without Richie Mo’unga, the best player in Super Rugby for about seven years straight, the Crusaders are officially in re-build mode under Rob Penney. Other key losses include strike weapon Leicester Fainga’anuku and stalwart lock Sam Whitelock.
The best side will be decided between the Blues and Chiefs, with the Auckland-based club looking the best so far in pre-season. The Blues have looked slick in Japan with a host of young players gelling under first year coach Vern Cotter. The new version of Caleb Clarke looks in ominous form with a slimmer frame adding more speed.
Last year’s runners up Chiefs are expected to be strong but have lost a number of key players. Sam Cane is on a sabbatical, Brad Weber and Brodie Retallick have gone overseas. They still have a strong young pack with Samisoni Taukei’aho, Ollie Norris, Josh Lord, Tupou Vaa’i, Luke Jacobson, and a star-studded backline with plenty of strike power in Damian McKenzie, Shaun Stevenson, Emoni Narawa.
The Hurricanes are potentially going to be the worst of the Kiwi sides with only one true star player in Jordie Barrett. After receiving a pre-season shellacking from the Highlanders, it does not look promising. Ardie Savea will miss the entire season on sabbatical and they have a new head coach.
The Highlanders look like they’ve improved from last year’s disastrous season. Some young homegrown talent combined with some smart signings, Timoci Tavatavanawai and Tanielu Tele’a, poses a threat to the other sides.
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The Canes and Landers will fight it out to avoid being New Zealand’s worst performing side.
Finn Morton: Every Super Rugby Pacific squad looks a little bit different in 2024. With legends departing and youngsters eager to forge their own legacies, now is the time to stand up and be great. But when it’s all said and done, the Chiefs will reign supreme.
The Clayton McMillan-coached Chiefs fell painfully short of championship glory last time out – the fairytale end to a practically perfect season wasn’t to be. With the best forward pack in New Zealand leading the way, the lethal halves combination of Cortez Ratima and Damian McKenzie will work wonders as they’re unable to unlock the very best of a star-studded backline.
But when there’s a winner, there must be a loser. No, that’s not referring to the ‘runner-up’ in the New Zealand conference necessarily, but rather the heavily-favoured hare who will fall well short of expectations, hype and history.
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The Crusaders are the hare that will lose badly in the race against the Chiefs. Without the likes of Richie Mo’unga, Sam Whitelock, Leicester Fainga’anuku and coach Scott Robertson, this team will struggle to establish their own identity – as seen in spurts during their Northern Tour to Munster and Bristol.
In the absence of Mo’unga, coach Rob Penney must turn to unestablished playmakers Taha Kemara or Rivez Reihana – at least until Fergus Burke returns from injury. With a backline that may include the likes of Ryan Crotty and Manasa Mataele, with all due respect, the Crusaders will struggle to keep up with the flair and youth of their Kiwi foe.
Ned Lester: Championship pedigree is so often forged in the throws of a devastating loss, and for the Chiefs, they’ve earned their stripes and have now claimed the favourites tag to win the competition.
The squad were on fire in 2023, and the confidence of going nearly undefeated over 18 weeks mixed with the sourness of being pipped at the final hurdle is a potent concoction, ripe for going one step further. Out of all the Kiwi teams, the Waikato squad are the best placed to replace their departing All Blacks, with a small army of quality locks to step in for Brodie Retallick and a hot contender for All Blacks duties in Cortez Ratima to replace Brad Weber.
The absence of Sam Cane will be noticeable but at least partially obscured by the continued growth of Samipeni Finau and Luke Jacobson, however after boasting the strongest reserve unit in the competition in 2023, the team’s losses will be most felt in the final 20 minutes, and that is a concern to their title aspirations.
On the flip side of that coin is the Highlanders, a squad that waved goodbye as 16 players walked out the door following the 2023 campaign. 16 players. That’s a lot.
The team’s improvement in performance from their first pre-season match (a 36-28 comeback win over Moana Pasifika) to their second (a 52-19 thumping over the Hurricanes) was impressive, while simultaneously implying the need to keep pre-season results well within pre-season context – given it was the Hurricanes’ first crack of the year.
The young Highlanders looked enthused, hungry and capable of finding their dangerous runners via their two quality playmakers at 10 (Ryhs Patchell) and 12 (Sam Gilbert), but a sustainable recipe for success has got to be considered some time away for the team yet.
Which teams will be the best and worst Australian sides?
BS: You can’t go past the Brumbies as Australia’s best side after consistently putting up winning seasons year after year. They’ve lost halfback Nic White to the Force and Pete Samu to France but they have the best pack by far.
Allan Alaalatoa, Lachlan Lonergan, Darcy Swain, Nick Frost, Tom Hooper, Rod Valetini, the Brumbies are stacked where it matters. Flyhalf Noah Lolesio has returned after a short stint in France, while there is enough quality out wide with Len Ikitau anchoring at centre.
The Waratahs should be able to challenge the Brumbies as the next best Australian side. The Brumbies have the edge up front but the Tahs have more talent in the backs, with halfback Teddy Wilson an exciting prospect to challenge Jake Gordon. Mark Nawaqanitawase was the Wallabies’ best player last year, while Max Jorgensen is a prodigious talent at fullback.
The Rebels have put together an impressive roster with Wallabies in Taniela Tupou, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, and discarded wing Filipo Daugunu. Australian Sevens and U20 outside back Darby Lancaster is a real weapon. The Gordon brothers should progress another year with Mason joining Carter in the top squad. There is enough there to compete with the top Australian sides but they are probably the third best.
The Queensland Reds and Western Force will likely battle it out to avoid being the worst Australian side. The Force just don’t have enough world class players in the tight five while the Reds are in that same boat.
FM: It would be an incredible upset if the ACT Brumbies don’t rank above the other four Australian Super Rugby Pacific sides at the end of the regular season. While veterans Nic White and Pete Samu have left to pursue other opportunities, the core of the squad remains largely the same.
But Ryan Lonergan holds the key. Lonergan, who was included in Wallabies’ squads last year but never took the field, will need to step up without Nic White to call upon. Not only will Lonergan do that, but a potential Test debut could be on the cards under new coach Joe Schmidt.
Noah Lolesio, Tom Hooper, Corey Toole and Andy Muirhead are all also backing up this season. This is a team that will not only take pole position out of the Australian sides, but the Brumbies are a very real chance of winning it all this season. You can screenshot this.
At the other end of the Australian standings will be the NSW Waratahs. How the mighty have fallen. While it’s important not to read too much into pre-season results, there’s something undefined about the Tahs. The battle between Tane Edmed, Will Harrison and Jack Bowen for the No. 10 will be interesting, and all three men could very well get a run in 2024. But that hypothetical chopping-and-changing at one of the rugby’s key positions is not a good omen – it’s a concern
Angus Bell and Langi Gleeson will spearhead the makings of a solid forward pack, but the strength of the Waratahs’ schedule will mean that they likely struggle.
A trip to Brisbane to face the Reds in a State of Origin-esque grudge match is a tough start to the campaign, and it doesn’t get any easier with three matches against Kiwi opposition on the bounce. From there, the pressure will only continue to build. The Tahs will struggle this season, unfortunately, whereas the Brumbies are ready to push on for glory.
NL: Success is bred in culture, and the Brumbies have Australia’s best. The prospect of being resigned to an eternity of semi-final eliminations – at best – has Stephen Larkham’s men, along with the general Australian rugby public, desperate for a taste of finals footy.
The various X-factor players the team possesses can damage any side in the competition, but what the Brumbies really need in the big games, what’s really their bread and butter, is execution in the nitty-gritty aspects of the game. The patience, relentlessness and composure to cross the t’s and dot the i’s, while the hopes of so many rest on their shoulders will likely define the team’s success in 2024.
Meanwhile, the Western Force brought in some quality names over the offseason, but none that are in their prime. Harry Potter and Ben Donaldson might well prove that statement wrong, but the age profile of the newcomers tends to be either 24 and under or 33 and over, which isn’t exactly a recipe for immediate success.
Comments on RugbyPass
Why cant I watch Rugby games please?
1 Go to commentsBeautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
31 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
4 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
31 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
31 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
31 Go to comments