Assessing the five Kiwi teams ahead of the Super Rugby Pacific playoffs
With the Blues record 13th straight win of the season over the Waratahs, they have built Super Rugby Pacific’s best record and would have put together an undefeated regular season if not for Ardie Savea’s last second heroics in round two.
They are without a doubt in the box seat to deliver a Super Rugby title with home ground advantage sewn up, but one wonders if getting a loss out of their system would have been ideal right here ahead of the playoffs.
With 13 straight wins, the Blues will now have to go 16 in a row to be crowned champions of Super Rugby Pacific. If they fail to do that, it will be one of the biggest choke jobs in Super Rugby history.
They have the competition’s leading Most Valuable Player candidate in Beauden Barrett who has been instrumental in getting them home in big games against top opposition. They will need Barrett to keep producing the big plays down the stretch.
The Crusaders will put away the Reds for the second time next week in their quarterfinal. The Queenslanders have not beaten any of the five Kiwi teams this year and that likely won’t change now.
Scott Robertson’s men will bank a home semi-final and quietly go about their plans with one eye on a possible trip to Eden Park for the final the following week.
The third-placed Chiefs have questionable credentials, having narrowly escaped away losses to the Rebels in Melbourne and the fast-finishing Drua in Fiji, two sides parked at the bottom of the ladder.
But it is the heavy home defeats to the Crusaders, Blues and Brumbies that brings into question just how valuable home ground advantage for their playoff game against the Waratahs will be.
The New South Welshmen are good enough to pull off an upset in Hamilton next week and expose the Chiefs for who they are: a good but inconsistent team that has gone 1-4 in their five games against the other top four sides.
If any side is going to be upset in the quarterfinals, the Chiefs are the most likely candidate as the competition’s counterfeit contender.
With their loss to the Force and other final round permutations, the Hurricanes will now have to travel to Canberra to face the Brumbies where they were demolished earlier in the year.
Despite the Brumbies late season fade, the Canes up-and-down season deserves to be buried once and for all on the cold turf at GIO Stadium.
The Hurricanes could pull off something but in the long run they will be better off taking the loss. A semi-final berth will paper over the cracks of a team that should be in re-building mode and cleaning out some of the roster.
They have the worst scrum of any Kiwi side despite possessing a swathe of New Zealand age grade front row prospects and the experienced pair of Owen Franks and Dane Coles. The Brumbies pack should eat up the Hurricanes tight five at set-piece time and prove too much.
Tony Brown’s Highlanders just simply do not deserve to be anywhere near the playoffs and neither do the Force, but that is the nature of this poorly provisioned playoff system.
This is one of the major problems with the competition that has eight of the twelve teams qualifying. The incentives for sides to spend a few seasons building a genuine contender are not there.
You can plod your way through and still be in with a chance, just needing to get hot for a three-game streak. As a result, some of the New Zealand teams aren’t blooding younger combinations that need time to build for the future as they still hold out hope a title is on offer this year.
The Chiefs will be better off in three years time starting Cortez Ratima at halfback and Rivez Reihana at first five every week, building a 9-10 combination between the 21-year-old and 22-year-old that will give the franchise the foundation for a long title window in the future.
Instead they think they are half a chance now so Brad Weber and Bryn Gatland have the jobs. Weber is a genuine All Black halfback of course but at 31-years-old, the sun is setting. Gatland is an admirable performer but will not be in the picture for national selection.
It’s the same at the Hurricanes, who have flip flopped between Ruben Love, Jackson Garden-Bachop and Aidan Morgan throughout the season at 10 while veteran TJ Perenara holds the 9 jersey over Jamie Booth and Cam Roigard.
The Hurricanes need to find a top young halfback prospect and pair him with 20-year-old Aidan Morgan to start every week. In three years, they will have the halves combination they need to contend as both young players have the necessary experience while still possessing their peak athletic ability.
If Super Rugby teams had to put together a quality season to reach the top four instead of eight to make the playoffs, they would have to think longer term in getting there as mediocrity wouldn’t be good enough.
The also rans that are making it this year are chopping and changing combinations every week in search of the magic chemistry that could surprise everyone at the last hurdle. Long-term planning is taking a backseat in some cases.
The consequences of this are felt higher up with the All Blacks having shortages of specialist players in their prime athletic years that they can actually pick.
The All Blacks need international quality options ready under 25 years old, not a host of journeymen at the end of their careers. Marty Banks holding down a Super Rugby back-up job with the Highlanders is not what the All Blacks need at first five unfortunately.
New Zealand’s young blue chip players in key roles likely need to have at least 25-30 Super starts under their belts to be a genuine chance of being a test selection. That means they need starting jobs at 20 or 21-years-old to build the necessary experience. For forwards, they could start a little bit older.
If these careers are held up or delayed, or they are rotated in-and-out every other week, pushed into playing multiple positions, then what do the national selectors have to go off? There is often not enough.
Chiefs second five Quinn Tupaea debuted last year for the All Blacks out of necessity, which was probably a little bit too soon despite Tupaea being a top centre prospect through the age grades.
The Chiefs bungled his introduction to Super Rugby by omitting him from their 2019 squad which cost him a year of valuable experience even though he was ready at that time. The Covid-reduced season in 2020 gave him 12 games in his first season, seven of which were starts and they were mostly in the 13 jersey.
By the time of his All Black debut he had 19 Super caps, of which just 13 were starts, and just seven at second five. He didn’t majorly disappoint at international level, he just wasn’t given enough development time to hit the ground running.
This year the 23-year-old is starting to hit his straps with nearly 30 Super Rugby caps in what is now his third season and is probably ready to contribute meaningfully as he enters his prime years as an athlete.
This three-season arc is what the Super teams should be providing for the absolute top prospects coming through, particularly in the backs who peak earlier than forwards and the speed and agility declines earlier on the downside.
If the Super teams were forced to build genuine contenders, instead of the Oprah-inspired ‘you get a playoff spot, you get a playoff spot’ setup, then the incentives might be better aligned with what the national side needs.
Comments on RugbyPass
I don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
4 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
24 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
24 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
24 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
24 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
28 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
24 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
28 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
24 Go to comments