LONG READ Why peaking for a World Cup could be pointless

Peaking for a World Cup has taken on a mythical quality. People agree it exists, but nobody seems to agree on what it really means. In the age of Mourinho-like coaches peaking and planning have become buzzwords.

Part of the big brain myth of the modern coach where everything is planned and losses are really wins. It sustained Eddie Jones as he strung together mediocre performance after mediocre performance with England. It didn’t matter, because, rest assured, this was a man who knew what he was doing and would have England peaking for the World Cup.

But maybe the cult of the coach followers were right? England, now with Steve Borthwick at the helm, have reached a semi-final. Ireland and France, who were routinely winning right the way through the four-year cycle, are watching at home. So is that settled? Is winning in between World Cups pointless?

To win matches you need to play your best team more often than not. But doing that means you’re not developing either depth or their inevitable replacements. To some extent, Ireland were guilty of this. Johnny Sexton’s retirement leaves a void which will have to be filled by someone who has limited international experience. Ross Byrne or Jack Crowley look the men most likely to fill it. But Byrne has just 624 minutes of Irish experience and Crowley less still, 352 minutes. Maybe Ireland should have taken a loss or two with a back-up fly-half in exchange for a more certain future?

To many that is the definition of building for a World Cup. You sacrifice some matches earlier in the cycle to be at your best for the main event. In reality, Ireland did that almost perfectly. Ross Byrne first featured in an Ireland squad in 2018. By that point he had already played in a Pro14 semi-final and had 48 Leinster matches under his belt. Since then he’s appeared for Ireland in every season. Never amassing extended periods as a starter but he’s supplemented that with high-pressure matches for his club; a champions cup semi-final in 2021, a final in 2022, and started every European knockout game in 2023.

In Wales’ first match of the 2021 Six Nations, prime World Cup building time, they had a backrow of Justin Tipuric, Dan Lydiate, Taulupe Faletau with Josh Navidi coming off the bench. By the time the World Cup came around, two of them had retired, one was injured for the quarter final, and the other played sparingly

Jack Crowley had done the same, starting the URC final last year. Crucially, despite his experience, Sexton had only started one World Cup knockout match, 2019 against New Zealand. While Ireland’s fly-halves may have seen limited playing time behind Sexton, they saw huge playing time at their clubs.

Ireland are an unusual example as well. Few countries have someone who is so clearly dominant and the nailed on starter. Most teams inadvertently share playing time around due to injuries or a loss of form. In Wales’ first match of the 2021 Six Nations, prime World Cup building time, they had a backrow of Justin Tipuric, Dan Lydiate, Taulupe Faletau with Josh Navidi coming off the bench. By the time the World Cup came around, two of them had retired, one was injured for the quarter final, and the other played sparingly in the tournament.

When the quarter final came around, it was Jac Morgan, Tommy Reffell, Aaron Wainwright starting with Christ Tshiunza appearing off the bench. Bright sparks in the Welsh World Cup campaign but only Wainwright had made his debut prior to that 2021 match. The vagaries of elite sport meant that their quarter final starters weren’t even in the running to be given game time at the expense of an established front runner.

That is a crucial point. It might seem heretical to mention, but luck plays an enormous role in winning or losing. Every single quarter final was close enough that with a little more luck we would’ve had four different semi-finalists. That is common for match-ups between the best teams in the World.

The World Cup remains the biggest prize in rugby. That will never change. But, exclusively building for it and sacrificing those moments of joy along the way is folly.

With that in mind, do you really want to spend four years sacrificing winnable matches in exchange for a coin flip match? I guarantee that the French and Irish fans had a more enjoyable World Cup cycle, even factoring in their heartbreaking quarter final losses. If anything, the fact England are doing well with their less than exuberant playing style seems to be making English fans even more furious.

The World Cup remains the biggest prize in rugby. That will never change. But, exclusively building for it and sacrificing those moments of joy along the way is folly. Especially when there’s no evidence your team will be better for it once they reach their target.