Since Eddie Jones was appointed head coach of the Wallabies back in mid-January, Rugby Australia has upped its game in support of the Randwick man’s undoubted marketability. Eddie talks and Hamish McLennan walks – hesitantly at first, but more decisively with the recent snatch of brilliant youngster Joseph Suaalii from under rugby league noses.
Suaalii will cost RA $1.6m AUD per annum, and arguably the money could be better spent elsewhere, at grassroots level rather than on a Wallabies backfield already well-stocked with talent. Suaalii may be an outstanding prospect, and the ARL exemption clause which allowed him to play in the NRL before he had reached the tender age of 18 proves it. He played his first game for the Roosters at only 17 years and 294 days old, and it is rare indeed for a boy to be able to compete on equal terms in a man’s game.
Nevertheless, the back three is the most talent-rich area of the Wallabies without him. Just ask Jordan Petaia, Tom Wright, Reece Hodge, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Marika Koroibete, Andrew Kellaway, Suli Vunivalu, Filipo Daugunu and young up-and-comers like Max Jorgensen and Corey Toole. They will tell you. Fullback or wing is not exactly an area of need with that bunch around.
As his Sydney Roosters’ teammate, hooker Brandon Smith pointed out succinctly after the signing:
“Super-stoked for him, he’s an amazing talent and rugby really got a gem there.
“[But] a $1.6m winger from the Roosters isn’t going to help you beat the All Blacks.
“Like [ARL Commission chairman] Peter V’landys said, ‘go over, get that easy money and then come back to the real sport’. That $1.6m could’ve been spent better on the grassroots of rugby.”
Splashing a lick of paint, however bright, on a bare piece of wood is not the answer. It needs to be rubbed down, properly primed and given an undercoat first. Suaalii might want to talk to Suli Vunivalu before his own experiment ever begins in earnest. Vunivalu was touted as ‘the next big thing’ but League players do not improve in a vacuum in the sister code.
We’ve got to be junkies for winning, not junkies for possession.
Eddie Jones
They need special guidance in the requirements of their new role. It took Jason Robinson the best part of three seasons to learn how to run the ball back from kicks without losing the ball in contact. He did it in the mud and rain of Manchester, so there was nothing glamorous about it at all.
Jones’ other recent publicity gambit is the claim that the Wallabies no longer need to play a version of the possession footy which suited Australia so well at the time when it led innovation in the game, back in the late 90s and early noughties:
“There’ll be a hundred thousand people there, right, and we kick the ball 70 times and we beat New Zealand, everybody is going to be happy.
“[If] we kick the ball 10 times and we get beaten 40-10, they’re going to walk out kicking stones.
“So, we’ve got to be junkies for winning, not junkies for possession. Possession rugby is dead. It’s dead for the moment and it’s probably going to be dead for a long period of time.
“The game’s about being fast now. You’ve got 75 per cent of tries being scored in three phases – 75 per cent.
“So why would you keep the ball for 10 phases?
“That’s just stupid to even think like that anymore, and unfortunately there’s that thinking still in rugby.”
Eddie Jones always has his reasons for making such statements, and they always have a smart rationale behind them. But let’s squash the obvious half-truths. The following stats are culled from the most recent international tournament, the Six Nations championship which finished only two weeks ago:
The overall split between tries scored in under three phases, and the proportion scored afterwards, was 56-44, and the team that won the competition, Ireland, scored more tries from 4+ phase possessions than they did from phases 1-3. The closest Six Nations’ side to Eddie’s statistical model is France, but both the French and the Australian franchises in Super Rugby Pacific, who have scored 65 per cent of their 81 tries in under three phases, still come in well under the 75 per cent watermark.
The bulk of the iceberg always lies under the water-line, and so it is with Eddie Jones’ stats. Let’s take a look at some other figures from the Six Nations, and then tally them with equivalent Aussie stats from Super Rugby Pacific 2023:
- The average ball-in-play time in the Six Nations was 38.1 minutes. Games involving Ireland had an even higher average at 39.3 minutes. The average SRP ball-in-play time is currently 34.5 minutes for 2023; in the matches involving Australian teams that drops further, to 33.3 minutes – six minutes fewer than in Ireland’s matches.
- Ireland held the ball for 20.5 minutes per game in the Six Nations. Compare that to an Australian SRP average of 16.6 minutes per game.
- Ireland built an average of 107 rucks, with 139 ball-carries and eight clean breaks made per game. The current SRP average is 75 rucks for the Australian sides, with 106 carries and five-and-a-half clean breaks per game.
- The top two sides in the Six Nations (Ireland and France) scored 51 per cent of their tries from unstructured scenarios (kick or turnover returns and tapped penalties) as opposed to set-piece (scrum or lineout). The pattern is reversed for Australian teams in SRP 2023, who have scored 69 per cent of their tries from a set-piece starter play, and only 31 per cent from unstructured situations.
Despite the recent law trials aimed at speeding the game up and keeping ball-in-play for longer periods, Super Rugby (and Australian Super Rugby in particular) is still lagging behind the north. It always used to be the quickest version of rugby on the planet, but that is no longer the case.
The reasoning behind Eddie Jones’ comments becomes a whole lot clearer when you realise that Australia cannot keep up with the Irelands of the rugby world. The world’s number one-ranked side can maintain possession for longer periods and recycle it quicker throughout the phase count. The possession game is far from dead, it’s alive and well in the Emerald Isle.
Eddie acknowledged as much as the talk continued:
“You look to the playing population of Australian rugby now: 60 per cent is Pasifika, 40 per cent is white.
“So that means the 60 per cent of Pasifika, we’ve got to play power rugby. Like, we can’t play a long-phase, hold-the-ball [rugby] with different sorts of gene pools.
“We’ve got to play smart, we’ve got to play to what the laws are now and we’ve got to play to our strengths, which is about being smart, being really fast and aggressive on the first couple of phases, and then be able to kick constructively to get the ball back.”
Australia cannot keep up with the Irelands of the rugby world. The world’s number one ranked side can maintain possession for longer periods and recycle it quicker throughout the phase count.
If Australia cannot break the opposition on the first three phases, there is going to be a whole lot of kicking – just as there was towards the becalmed end of Jones’ tenure with England. It might be three shots-and-out, just like American Football.
The best game of 2023 so far was undoubtedly the Six Nations championship decider between Ireland and France. It boasted a colossal 46.1 minutes of ball-in-play, and it was even exhausting to watch. Ireland owned 25 of those minutes of active possession time, building 142 rucks and carrying 178 times in the process.
They wore France down, and nothing exemplified their ball control better than their decisive fourth try in the 70th minute of the match. The scoring sequence began at halfway with a kick receipt by Mack Hansen, and lasted for two minutes and 15 seconds – and 19 phases – before Garry Ringrose crossed the whitewash.
Ireland found their attacking shape immediately after Hansen’s initial return:
There are already three forwards ahead of number 10 Ross Byrne, with two more backs outside him and extreme width immediately available to the left side-line. The man organizing it all in the midfield is number 8 Caelan Doris, who makes the first carry, beating France’s best forward tackler Anthony Jelonch with sublime late feet at the line.
Doris was one of the keys to Irish progress in the phase count, carrying and directing play:
This time Doris is stopped at the line, but there is ample compensation in the form of one-second ruck ball, which restores momentum to the men in green. The Leinster eighth man was at the heart of the scoring play, too:
Doris calls for the ball behind, and even though Bundee Aki is smothered by a superb defensive read from Gaël Fickou, he manages a long ‘nail’ presentation which returns the ball quickly to Ireland’s pivotal player. A long offload out to the left gives Ringrose all the space he needs for a magnificent finish.
The possession game in the modern era is all about smart reads, quick shifts and accuracy of choice at the cleanout. Ireland second row James Ryan had three one-on-one cleanouts in the sequence, and always picked the right cleanout to suit the occasion:
Both of these cleanouts are directed against the imposing frame of France flanker François Cros, but they are completely different in character. In the first instance, Ryan has to skip around the tackler (Jelonch) and remove a jackal (Cros) who is playing with weight forward of his centre-of-gravity, so a roll technique is required. In the second, Cros is defending with his centre of gravity high and looking to hold the ball-carrier up for a turnover maul, so Ryan drills straight through him and takes him to the floor.
It is impossible to miss the bittersweet irony: Eddie Jones was one of the architects of possession footy back in the early 2000s, but is now claiming that it is dead. In fact, it was the foundation of Ireland’s success in the Six Nations.
It is rather a case of Eddie Jones justifying Australia’s future direction of travel. He doesn’t see the feasibility of a possession game with the players he has available, and the rugby culture underpinning them. Grit your teeth, hold on to your armchair and get ready for a lot of kicking. Three ‘downs’ followed by a punt.
Where Joseph Suaalii fits into that vision is anyone’s guess. Despite the white noise surrounding his signing, he will soon face a stark reality. The number of those who started their professional careers in league and have proven to be as good, or better in the rival code can be numbered on one hand: Jason Robinson with England, Lote Tuqiri with Australia and Brad Thorn in the All Blacks. More recently you can add the likes of Semi Radradra and Marika Koroibete to that list.
At some time in the near future, the marketing and cheerleading will have to stop and there will be silence, the ominous silence punctuated only by the peep of a referee’s whistle. It is only then that Australian supporters will find out whether they have been led up the garden path by a pied piper, towards yet another false dawn.
We always knew Mr Ed could talk until he was hoarse. Has there been any updates on his assistants yet? Or do they ‘select themselves’ too?
Still struggling, just about 20% of Wisemantel so far!
Why quote AU stats in SRP as a comparison to Ireland in 6N when AU sides are losing the majority of their games (except the Brumbies)? What are the stats for winning NZ teams in SRP, such as the Chiefs and Crusaders? What are winning teams in SRP doing? The Ireland tries with 4+ phases, where did they gain the ball? Their half or oppositions? Your first example is a receipt from a kick on halfway so in the attacking zone. Betting Eddie ask the Wallabies to kick away possession after 3 phases when they’re in the attacking zone either.
I gave the overall SRP average @34 mins per games of ball-in-play. Blues top in NZ at @38 mins, the others all around 35' per game.
The rest is laziness. Just take a look at where Ireland begin some of their phase play by watching their games. They do not always start inside the 22.
Hi Nick!
I sometimes wonder if EJ says one thing and means something else. "Hey, look here but I actually want to be playing there". Maybe I am overthinking him. Never mind.
I am quite interested in the Ireland play, and wonder if teams are not preparing different defense mechanisms to deal with them in France. The French, in particular, must have learnt some "learnings" (just joking, I mean lessons) from the recent 6N.
Beef may not be enough, speed matters. My old coach used to say that your forwards are as fast as the slowest one and your backs as fast as the fastest one. Maybe this is the deal more than ever these days.
I hope that now you are free you can also write something about the Pumas...
It can be a very fast game at the top level now, and that's why I think they changed the rules for this year's SRP, to create more acclimatization...
Yes I will be writing over a much broader sweep from now on C, Stuff on Arg and SA to come.
Good stuff. Thanks, Nick. Absolutely agree that our back 3 are well stocked yet fullback is still very much up in the air. Petaia and Wright doing quite well this year though with young Jorgensen a player for the future. I think there may be another issue which stems from the Sua’ali’i deal. If you’re an outside back and see that sort of cash splashed around, you’d be mad not to have your agent pushing for more money. If you’re not seeing it, you might just look elsewhere. I think we could see a few depart in the next few years.
Yes I'd agree that full-back for the WC is amply filled by one of TW. JP or Reece Hodge - and very right about the money too. It sets market values for everyone else, and opens up the landscape for much higher demands by player's agents. You can almost imagine the convos right now. "Well if you are spending 1.6m on a player with no pro background in the game...."
Great read Nick. I recall Eddie hedging his bets re a return to ‘the Australian way’ with a caveat about kicks early on in his new tenure, seems like he is still holding on in part to his plan at England, but it will be a motley breed by the sounds when it comes to game day. I wonder who he has as the top 15 or even a kicking winger with these intentions. Do you have Wright on a wing and Campbell as a genuine FB, he’d need to continue to improve…
He's right in the sense that you cannot succeed without a great kicking game at this level, and Ireland have one. But where do you put your chips? A kicking FB and chasing wings??
Well done in putting Eddie's stats into perspective Nick. I'd like to see the try/phase stats after discounting tries from rolling mauls and intercepts.
Reminds me of the story Rocky Elsom once told about how the Edster figured out that scrums only take up an average of 8 minutes a game. Apparently our Messiah thus concluded that the team should only devote 8 minutes to the scrum at training!
Yes hard to quantify the impact of a back-pedaling scrum on team morale, and that area has been one of Eddie's historical weaknesses CS!
Rassie started the 6-2 split, the new form of rush D, the 3 phase and kick. Everyone else is just imitating except for Ireland. I’m hoping Rassienaber will innovate again this RWC. If not then Ireland deserves to win it. AB’s used to be very innovative but have lacked innovation lately.
I don't think you can say France have copied SA Chris. Shaun Edwards has been around a lot longer than Nienaber!
If the All Blacks go with: Mo’unga, J Barrett, and Stevenson at 15 the Wallabies will find it hard to win the kicking game against them.
The SRP games have already shown that it is asking for trouble to kick back to NZ sides persistently if you don't have a chase to go with it...
hey Spew - it must be very strange going in to a RWC without you guys being favourites - imo that makes you guys favourites
Well atleast hes not buying of south africans, and other countries...all he is doing is looking for players who have been value added in his own backyard.....this guy, love him or hate him....he knows how to stir a calm pool of murky water to get the biggest catch
He knows the publicity side for sure, even it does come back to bite in the backside occasionally!
Nice one nick. I think that Eddie's point is largely right IF (big if) you exclude Ireland who are very much playing their own style (maybe japan also). France, SA, England and NZ all playing a counter punch/set piece style. I would love aus to try and replicate the Irish brand of rugby but I do not think eddie, Hamish and the board, or the aus public have the patience. It all seems to be about wins and wins now with no one thinking further than 2027, which has me worried. From memory, you also penned some articles during Rennie's tenure criticising his attempts to implement the possession game, seemingly coming to the same conclusion as Eddie that Aus may not be cutout for it??? I'll be interested to see if the SR laws this year better prep aus and NZ for the northern teams.
Yes the main problem is contained in the figures contained in the article. If you're not used to playing so many mins of possession during a game you can't maintain the effort level necessary to keep the pressure on. There was a great interview by Thibault Flament recently saying just how shagged the French were in that last quarter in Dublin.
I'd add that NZ are also becoming more of a ball control team under Schmidt too!
Interesting read Nick, thanks. Will Eddie Jones be looking for the very intense burst of his athletes from set piece? All or nothing plays?
It sounds like there will be some hyper power plays in p 1-3 so no confidence to manipulate the D thereafter. So if Aussie do not score or make a break early, the D can drop back and wait for the kick!
Missing you on the Roar but happy your writing still gets airing. What I see is a big difference between the ruck clean out and clearance from 9 by Ireland and WB's. Ireland are almost brumbies-like with their systematic possession game whilst WB's lack serious cohesion (a bit like the Tah's at the moment) where nobody know's who is doing what. Also aside from the Brumbies, nobody else in Aust SR has a halfback that can keep momentum with their pass. Anyway as Eddie says, he is after a hit and run job @ the world cup hence I can understand why he is thinking that.
We have to cut Eddie some slack but even a hit & rub job needs a clear plan and we'll have to wait to see what it is really is. He had Marcus Smith booting it after three phases and it didn't work.
Another great review Nick - long time reader, first time commenter and was glad to find you on this site after assuming you were taking some time off the other.
I was confused about the big money signing of Suaalii as well. I'm assuming the justification is that at this point, his background is still as much rugby as league. But I can't grasp the logic of it given that it looks like we've got some really good young talent that can be developed across the back. Suaalii will have to be a step better than say a Folau for this to pay off.
I know you're not a fan of the 5 Aust super sides given our depth issues, but do you think they could all be competitive if you were strategic about spreading the talent out?
Others have been right to point out that the money might have been better spent elsewhere, esp in the current payment climate across the globe. I think they wanted to make a big splash and they certainly did that,
Yes I don't like the thin spread of talent across five sides, and there is no evidence it works in terms of fielding five competitive teams v Kiwi teams. I'm sure Eddie will be trying to ensure everyone he sees as a 'poss' for the WC will be getting some game time, but the system is not as well aligned as it is in NZ.
interesting sidelight with the whole Suali thing - i think we've all been duped by none other than channel 9 and STAN - to share my experience - i watch every SRP match on STAN every week whole matches not highlights - haven't watched an NRL match for a few years now except for say SoO - anyway, guess what i did last night - watched the Roosters match to see what all the hype about Suali was about - do you think the NRL ratings might not have gone up since he signed with rugby - hook line and sinker - i reckon ch 9 might be the secret benefactor for the ARU and you think about it all those NRL boofhead commentators like Gus and Kenty etc - what are they doing but adding fuel to the fire.
Suaalii was the best buy, Eddie Jones was the worst buy.
Guess we'll find out, eventually.
Excellent analysis as usual. It was interesting to hear Morgan Turinui use the phrase trickle down, anyone who knows anything about economics will tell you what a boondoggle that strategy has been. The breakdown of Ireland is enlightening, watching those clips it’s incredible how quickly they shape up, everyone knows where they need to be. I note you left SBW off your list of transition players Nick, I suspect that was no accident?
IMO Sonny Bill was always behind Maa Nonu in the pecking order, and I reckon most would say he was a better player in League, would they not?
Cheers Nick. Wallabies support play ie clean outs haven’t been good so we can’t play possession based rugby any time soon. RHodge one of our best in that area and has a munted finger and no guarantee of making the 23 anyway. Speight and Godwin not respected enough for their 2nd phase. Korobeiti counter ruck s better than the guys who have played lots of union.
Eddie could do wonders with our best 30 players but so could Rennie and at least 10 of them will be injured or underdone.
Valetini and Gus bell could replace vunipola s but with bell being a good scrum. Hooper could replace the 7. Frost your kinda ptsd 6 or itoje launch berry lock. Rodda as a lock. Phillip good grinder JN would work well if frost played 6. Skelton for power. Tanilla and aaa as 3s but you start bell and tupou and frost at 6 if going all out.
It takes time and an awful lot of practice to play at the tempo that Leinster and Ireland do. WBs don't have that luxury, which maybe explains Eddie's comments. But repeating what failed with England would be a bit of a revolving death-door....
disappointing piece. first, making the argument the Suaalii is a big iff and comparing a 20 yr old kid who played Rugby Union until 2 years ago with old farts in the game who flopped in transition. obviously you did not do your home work. that is why Suaalii will succeed, he has been a rugby player longer than league. second erroneous claim is that the backlin of wallabies is already star studed. for Real?.. you re kidding me . which of these players below makes highlight reels every game???? nil.Just ask Jordan Petaia, Tom Wright, Reece Hodge, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Marika Koroibete, Andrew Kellaway, Suli Vunivalu, Filipo Daugunu and young up-and-comers like Max Jorgensen and Corey Come on... Do your homework.. EJ was planning a play for the RWC.. he was ousted as he was perfecting it... Ireland may have showed their hand early. we shall see...
I think you have homework mixed up with the idea with everyone is entitled to an opinion as long as it’s yours.
'Eddie was planning a play for the RWC' - if you don't win games, you don't get the chance to reveal your plan. Do your homework.
Plenty of talent in the players mentioned - do your homework!
JS may work out well, but you do not know that, so do your homework instead of just building one guess on top of another.
I'll mark it later 😁
Thanks Nick good analysis.
I hope he reads this, and he just might.
I think that you are right in suggesting that Oz just doesn't have the cattle to play like France and Ireland,..but also we don't have the cattle to kick strategically or well.
I suspect it will be something else, that right now he has up his sleeve. The attack coach selected might be a hint, and perhaps it will be a surprise. I reckon (but don't know) that he had Whittaker from NSW in his sights, but may not now with the Waratahs poor form.
My guess is that he'll still be counting on some sleight of hand to break the line, and (like Rennie) has a few eggs in the Quade Cooper basket. I reckon he'll find a fullback to contribute to this, and is probably thinking Wright/Petaia. Apart from Cooper's little kicks, he'll have his halfback and fullback kicking, which narrows the field a bit. He'll
count on Kerevi's brute Pacific force a lot, but if he's out, Foketi gives him some heady options.
Apparently his first squad this Sunday, so plenty of pressure this weekend
The assistant coaches are a worry, there is little solid international quality there. What he comes up with in terms f squad will be an interesting pointer to see if he follows his own advice. If Aussie kick a lot, I guess it will be down to Nic White.
Nice article!
Cheers Rob
Excellent review Nick - I think this is the third game plan Eddie has floated in 60 days. The days of the Ellas appear to have been abandoned quick enough since he got in the chair.
If you are going to kick away, best you be one of the better defensive sides going around, hard to see that with this Aus team and his D coach. Interesting trend up in the number of tries conceded by France in the last few years under Edwards too as an aside.
Consider that in the numbers are tries scored in few phases from lineouts and drives, and the resurgent tap penalty and the case weakens further. Has any international coach misread the trends in the last 2 years more than Eddie. Thats why he has been 40% for the last 2 seasons and it cost him his job.
This is the kind of analysis that should be bouncing around the Australian market, rather than what is currently demanded by the Chairmans PR team.
Seriously good that, refreshing.
Morning Highlander! Yes a great insight like usual. I think Eddie is just being himself. Everything is on the table as long as winning continues!
Good points Highlander.
Thanks H, and good to hear from you again.
Yes his stats startled me a bit because he must have access to the 6N reports. The big Q for him (and Aussie supporters) is how much he has really moved on from England in his vision of the game. If it really is the same, why should the results be any different than they have been since the last WC?