Weight of expectation is a heavy burden to carry for the Red Roses
It must be a terribly uncomfortable thought gnawing away in the back of the minds of the Red Roses, as much as they try to suppress it, it will be there.
The stomach-churning thought that their long-running winning streak will come to a grinding halt at the most unwanted time, on the turf at Eden Park this week.
It’s a mental hurdle even for neutrals to digest that this team could go without the crown jewel. Surely the unthinkable can’t happen, the winning run ending cruelly on 30 wins in the game England want most.
But history has proven time and time again, the best team doesn’t always win the title. Tournament play allows for anomalies, curveballs and ‘unfair’ outcomes.
We’ve heard how England deserve this one, for leading the game in the right direction and for how hard they’ve all worked.
Are they now entitled to walk away with the World Cup? If so, hand it to them now. If it is to be decided on the rugby, let’s wait and see.
The Ferns want to play a brand of rugby that excites crowds, gets people interested and gets youngsters to pick up a rugby ball. Is that not taking the game forward, by inspiring the next generation?
Where are the kids that want to roll a maul down and flop over the line like Amy Cokayne? There are many different ways to take the game forward and not all of them involve pay cheques.
No doubt England can play if they want to, they have the talent, but the fact that they have opted for conservative play for large stages of pool play perhaps shows they have missed an opportunity to become the rock stars of the World Cup.
It is the time to shine, take the stage and show the world what you’ve got, bring in the neutrals and turn them into rugby fans. In that respect, the Ferns have been the team to watch, not England.
The Red Roses, who supposedly have all the tools, have decided to leave most of them in the toolbox for the most part in the early stages of the competition.
We’ve seen flashes of England playing expansive, when the game was out of reach for South Africa they turned it on and ran it out of their exit zone with a safe cushion of 40-points after half a dozen pushover tries.
The starts have been slow, with the rolling maul relied upon heavily to kickstart the motor into gear.
It took an age to get going against Fijiana, who themselves put three tries together in a game where England eventually flicked the switch to put 60 points on them in the second half.
Their toughest test in the pools against France was not a test defensively for the Roses. The French barely had the ball, forced to tackle themselves to a standstill with over 200 of them. England battered them with carry after carry.
The torrential rain against the Wallaroos didn’t allow for an attacking spectacle and England typically bulldozed their way to a healthy scoreline.
Abby Dow’s all-time try against Canada in the semi-final showed what we have been missing with one of the greatest length of the field tries ever.
England possess the ability to play any way they want to, we just haven’t seen as much ball movement as everyone would like.
On the other side, the Red Roses’ weaknesses have not been put under the blowtorch just yet. They have they have leaked tries on the fringes when teams have dared to go there, which is not often.
That will bring some optimism to the Black Ferns coaching staff, who possess the most potent outside backs at this tournament with Portia Woodman and Ruby Tui in blistering form.
The disastrous end of year tour couldn’t be further in the rear view mirror as super coaches Wayne Smith, Graham Henry and Mike Cron have transformed the team back into an attacking powerhouse.
It is the hosts who are playing with the most speed at this World Cup. It’s not so much the winning as it is rediscovering the way of rugby that is most enjoyable to play that has been a hallmark of the turnaround.
They want to cause chaos, live outside the box, create free form attack and take risk. They play with freedom and expression, the opposite of England who are playing to win, methodically restricted by choice and strategy.
Yet the Ferns do not carry the burden of expectations, despite hosting the World Cup and possessing a history of success at the tournament with five previous titles.
The weight of expectation is carried by England, fully professional for the longest, riding a long winning-streak, with the most complete squad and resources who “have to win”.
Picture this, 50,000 Kiwis surrounding the tournament favourites at Eden Park, the home of New Zealand Rugby, ignited into a frenzy by a stirring Black Ferns haka.
No doubt this is a double-edged sword that could derail the Ferns as well, over-awed and starstruck by the moment, but tell us this isn’t a recipe for a classic English bottle job.
Don’t the Roses have a history of losing to the Black Ferns in World Cup finals?
Three years of full professionalism will come down to just 80-minutes. The marathon becomes a sprint and while the Red Roses have been reliable over the long-haul, you do not want to race a Ferrari over a short distance.
If the Roses engine takes too long to fire up, it could be like watching a car crash in slow motion. Irresistible to watch, but painfully cruel as the winning streak comes to a dreadful end.
Tens of thousands of Kiwis will turn out to see this great England side in action, and they’ve been promised a treat. That they will beat the Ferns in their own backyard.
Let’s see it then. Come on England, come on.
Comments on RugbyPass
Looking forward to the Wallabies being competitive again. No doubt that Joe can get them back on track.
1 Go to commentsThanks, Nick, not only for this fine article, but for all the others during 6N 2024. I really enjoyed this 2024 tournament, and felt it was one of the best for many years. That final match in Lyons was really good. England were certainly unlucky when that speculative hack by Ramos lead to a French try. It could just so easily have landed in English hand.s, and they score at the other end. I did think though that the French played some great rugby, and some of their driving play in the forwards was just fearsome. I watched Meafou with interest, and he has a good start to his career. It is interesting to compare him with Will Skelton. Lot of similarities, though so far Meafou has not shown any offloading threat. All credit to Borthwick for being prepared to change, and what great result, even if that last game was lost at the death. I feel they are a real chance to cause the AB’s problems this winter/summer. Finally a comment on Ireland. I thought their last game was their worst, and they did not look like the world’s No 2 side at all. What really worries me is that the loss to England was, in my view, down to poor decision making by the coaching group, and ofc Andy Farrell wears that. It was a big mistake to move JGP away from scrum half. Murray should have been the one to go to the wing. And the “finishers” should have been on the field earlier. And this is the second time this has happened. The RWC Qf against the AB’s, and not getting Crowley onto the field was a huge mistake. Finally, finally, watching Italy play was a joy. How wonderful that they are no longer the punchbag of the 6 N.
41 Go to commentsGreat story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
41 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
23 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
41 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
41 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments