There's only one team likely to cause a major upset at this World Cup - and it's not Japan or Fiji
At any one given World Cup, most matches in the group stages offer up pretty predictable outcomes.
Yes, there’s always a bit of a fight for the top spot in the pool – and it’s touch and go who will win when the Pacific teams are grouped together. By and large, however, results are fairly easy to pick.
That’s not always the case, however; sometimes there are major surprises.
At the 1999 tournament, Samoa scored an unexpected win over Wales – who ended up topping the pool.
2007 again saw Wales falling prey to the Pacific – this time in the form of the Flying Fijians (although two years of poor performances from Wales may have somewhat foretold that result).
In 2011, Tonga – who had already been bested by Canada – played out of their skins against an inconsistent French team and pulled off a 5-point win. That same French side came exceptionally close to taking out the whole tournament.
Come 2015, it was Japan’s turn to do some damage. In arguably the biggest upset in international rugby history, the Brave Blossoms scored in the final play of the game to earn their first win over the Springboks.
It’s worth noting, however, that these underdog sides have rarely gone on to post a second major upset. None of the above teams have since recorded such a major result at World Cups.
It seems that, at least since the beginning of the professional era, one big win has been enough to put the other more-fancied sides on notice.
Where tier-1 teams have been prone to putting out second-string sides to deal with the ‘minnows’ in the past, those days are now long gone.
The backup players may get their opportunities against the likes of Namibia and Uruguay now, but you can bet that Wales, France and South Africa won’t make the same mistake twice against the Pacific Nations and Japan.
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Despite all the talk that the second-tier teams are growing in stature, don’t expect to see many upsets at this World Cup.
Fiji may have a raft of physically imposing and talented players to pick from thanks to greater exposure in the Top 14, and Japan may well be on a drug called Tony Brown, but the likes of Wales and Scotland know full well what they’re dealing with.
The nature of rugby means that an even slightly more dominant team has a greater chance of winning a match-up than in a comparatively similar clash in a sport like football.
This weekend will see Fiji try to upset Australia – and many have been suggesting that the Pacific Islanders could catch the Wallabies by surprise. History tells us, however, that won’t happen.
With both sides fresh and neither facing tough opposition for at least a week following, head coaches John McKee (Fiji) and Michael Cheika (Australia) won’t be afraid to put their strongest combinations forward.
Perhaps, for many, a Fijian victory would be desirable – but it would be hard to bet against the Wallabies.
An upset seems much more plausible on the last day of pool play when Japan and Scotland square off in the final game of the group stages.
That’s not simply down to the fact that the gap between Japan and Scotland is significantly smaller than the one between Fiji and Australia, however.
Japan will be coming off a seven-day rest since their last game against Samoa. Scotland, by contrast, will have played Russia just four days prior.
Russia may be one of the weakest sides in the competition, but they’ve got some big, physical specimens who could cause some damage to the Scottish forwards.
Despite all that, Scotland should still go into the game as huge favourites.
Yes, Japan have improved significantly in recent times – but upsets have often come at times when the more-fancied sides are at a low point. Scotland, although they came 5th in this year’s Six Nations, are actually performing reasonably well at present – which is what will make this World Cup so competitive at the top end of the spectrum.
Every man and his dog (excepting those of the Scottish persuasion) will be hoping for a Japan win in the final game of the pools. Chances are, however, that Scotland will pull clear.
Taking all that into consideration, is there a fixture that involves a somewhat underrated national team that is yet to take a major scalp at a World Cup and a top-tier side that is underperforming?
Perhaps there is one match that could see an upset.
All the talk surrounding the Pacific Nations Cup this year was geared towards who would come out on top out of Japan and Fiji – but it wasn’t Fiji who ended up in a do-or-die clash with the Brave Blossoms at the end of the competition.
The USA have been slowly improving in recent times and have flown somewhat under the radar compared to the likes of Japan, Fiji and even Georgia.
The Eagles have had the wood over fellow World Cup attendees Samoa, Canada, Russia and Uruguay in the past few years and also recorded their first-ever win over a tier-1 nation when they escaped with a 1-point win over Scotland in 2018.
The belief they will have built up over the last cycle will galvanise the squad and it would be foolish to write them off against any team who is off form.
If you’re looking for a team that could fall prey to the Eagles, then look no further than France.
Since 2017, Les Bleus have drawn with Japan and lost to Fiji on their own home ground. They’ve also struggled against the higher-ranked teams and haven’t recorded a win over any of the top three Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere sides since March last year, when they narrowly bested England at the Stade de France.
There’s every chance that France will absolutely wallop the United States – the French do know how to turn it on from time to time. Even in the eight matches between the sides to date, however, France’s biggest win was only by 27 points.
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Their most recent game – way back in 2004 – ended in a victory to Les Bleus, 39-31.
France have built a reputation for winning games they should lose and losing games they should win. France should win against the USA in their Pool C clash on October 2nd – and that should be cause for concern for French supporters.
Japan and Fiji may be the darlings of world rugby right now and neutral supporters will all be gunning for the underdogs in their matches with sides like Scotland, Ireland, Australia and Wales.
If you’re looking for a game at the 2019 Rugby World Cup with a real chance of an upset, however, you’re more likely to find it early in October than at the beginning or end of the pool stages.
Comments on RugbyPass
Ben Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
19 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
7 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
19 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
19 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
19 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
86 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
3 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
9 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
19 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
14 Go to comments