Super Rugby Oracle: All the picks for Round 14
Our Super Rugby stats guru offers his tips for the weekend’s games.
The Oracle went 6/8 last week as some dodgy reffing scuppered the Blues slim hopes in Cape Town and the wheels fell off the Kings bandwagon. The season record now reads 77/103 for a 75% success rate. Here’s what’s in the crystal ball for Round 14.
Blues vs Chiefs (Auckland)
The Chiefs have had the wood over the Blues for some time now. In fact they have won the last 11 straight, including a comprehensive win at Hamilton earlier in the season. The Chiefs have had their moments, but they’re not quite the same attacking force as the Crusaders or Hurricanes, and they are prone to giving away a few penalties for silly stuff at the breakdown. The Blues will have to combat fatigue after making the long return trip to South Africa in a week, and they are sweating on which of their first-fives will be available. I favour the Chiefs by five to ten points, but one of these days the Blues are going to stop being the snake-bit team of the competition and someone is going to really cop it. The Chiefs, I’m sure, are taking anti-venom right now.
Pick: Chiefs
Reds vs Force (Brisbane)
You’ll need a high pain threshold to enjoy this match – neither team has played well for about three years and both are now treading water until the end of the season. The Force have no attacking punch, and the Reds have little respect for the football, so games played by each team stagger and lurch their way along for the 80 minutes unless their opponent can do something constructive. It’s not unknown for an opponent to play down to their level however, and that can get really ugly. I’m picking the Reds here – they do have backs who can make something happen, they just need to concentrate a bit on the basics and forget the showboat stuff. If they do that they should be good enough to win this match by 20 points.
Pick: Reds
Sunwolves vs Cheetahs (Tokyo)
This is another game featuring two sides all but eliminated from any chance of making the playoffs. The Sunwolves seem to be ringing round players who are on leave from the local club competition and asking who wants a game these days; they have already used 48 players and only two have played as many as ten games, while the Cheetahs will be glad to get away from New Zealand teams for a while. Neither side is a good team but both try to play, so the game could be open if unstructured. I think the Sunwolves may win but put money on that at your own risk.
Pick: Sunwolves
Highlanders vs Waratahs (Dunedin)
Normally this would be a game to give the Highlanders a week of sleepless nights, because for some reason the Waratahs have always had their number in Dunedin. That particular away-field advantage played out for 100 years or so, but recently the Highlanders have been going about squaring the ledger. It hasn’t always been pretty and most of the games have been close, but they’re getting it done at Sydney as well as Dunedin these days. The home side is in rare form and playing some outstanding footy, while the Waratahs are fumbling and bumbling their way through a season that will probably see a whole bunch of players and staff fired at the end of it. The Highlanders should be way too good in this one. If the Waratahs leave as much ball lying around as they have been, it could get ugly long before the end.
Pick: Highlanders
Rebels vs Crusaders (Melbourne)
Too easy – the Crusaders will win by as many as they want to. It’s not implausible that some competition records could be under threat, especially if the weather is fine and the crumbling pitch holds up. There’s no way the Rebels can stand up to the Crusaders, so there’s no point trying to pretend we can find a straw for them to cling onto.
Pick: Crusaders
Bulls vs Hurricanes (Pretoria)
While not quite as easy as the Melbourne game that precedes it, the Hurricanes should have no problems despatching the Bulls and running up a score. Probably only unseasonal weather in Pretoria could have any chance of preventing it. The Hurricanes have been devastating, the Bulls were devastated last week and those things on a collision course generally tend to get quite messy. The visitors will win, and by a wide margin.
Pick: Hurricanes
Sharks vs Stormers (Durban)
After a couple of lop-sided games, this one promises to be tough and hard-fought. While the Stormers have been chancing their arms at times this season, the Sharks have been playing a pragmatic sort of game that involves going up the middle and riding roughshod over anyone and anything that gets in their way. The battle of the loose trios will be the litmus test in this game; whichever one gets on top will do so because the tight five is winning the trench battle, and that means the team will be on the high road. I think I might tip the Sharks here, simply because they’re now well into a system where the don’t try more than they know they can do, and also because I think the Stormers used up a year’s worth of luck last week.
Pick: Sharks
Jaguares vs Brumbies (Buenos Aires)
This could be ugly, or it could be dreary, because both teams will get bogged down into a slugging match up front, mauling and one-off runners all day. The Jaguares do at least have possibilities out wide that the Brumbies don’t; that 40 minutes against the Reds was clearly an aberration and they don’t want to move the ball wider than one pass off the ruck all day. They managed to go through a whole game at Port Elizabeth without making a single linebreak, and that was with over 60% of the ball. I’m picking the Jaguares to win, but it will likely be pretty ugly. For the sake of rugby, I hope the Brumbies fall 20 behind in the first 20 minutes and actually have to play a bit to try and get up.
Pick: Jaguares
Lions vs Kings (Johannesburg)
The Kings have played well in the last month or so, but they got it all wrong against the Brumbies – maybe the favourite tag spooked them a bit. Whatever it was, they turned in their worst performance in some time and lost a very winnable match. One thing is for sure – if they go into their shells again this week, the Lions won’t make the same errors of caution the Brumbies did. They are quite happy to ride roughshod over a passive opponent, and a big score normally results. They should be able to batter the Kings however they play, and a big score should be the result.
Pick: Lions
In brief: Chiefs / Reds / Sunwolves / Highlanders / Hurricanes / Sharks / Jaguares / Lions
Comments on RugbyPass
🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
27 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
27 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
27 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
27 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
27 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to comments