Stat Attack: Frizell and Jacobson make their cases for World Cup selection
ANALYSIS: There are just four more rounds left in the regular season of Super Rugby. For some players, that means only four more rounds to stake their claim for a spot in the All Blacks.
The selectors will now have a reasonable idea as to their loose forward composition for the upcoming year. Kieran Read, Ardie Savea and Sam Cane will all be in the squad. All three players can cover at least two different positions in the loose forwards. That leaves room for maybe two more bona fide loosies – probably in the form of two blindside flankers.
Liam Squire is yet to make an appearance in 2019. He will likely be favoured for the squad as the incumbent no. 6 but will be in desperate need of game time before the All Blacks’ big matches. In all likelihood, he will be left out of the squad that travels to Argentina and may instead be tested in the Maori All Blacks’ two matches against Fiji. A call up to the main All Blacks squad for their remaining Rugby Championship tests against South Africa and Australia would cap off his return to top level rugby.
Vaea Fifita and Shannon Frizell, with nine and four caps respectively, are the senior All Blacks blindside options operating in Super Rugby this year. Fifita made his debut for New Zealand in 2017 – one year before Frizell – but lost ground to the Highlanders loosie in 2018.
Luke Jacobson and Tom Robinson have been touted as players for the future but have been turning enough heads in Super Rugby to suggest that they could be close to a call up too. Jacobson has certainly made a big difference for the Chiefs since his return from injury and it’s simply a case of when not if for the big Waikato flanker.
Statistically speaking, Frizell and Jacobson have stood out above their competition.
On attack, Frizell has been the most industrious in the tournament to date. With 59 metres gained for every full match played, Frizell is chewing through more ground than any of the other options. That’s courtesy of making more runs and linebreaks per game.
Frizell is also well ahead of the chasing pack in tackle busts, averaging almost four every game. Jacobson, who’s next closest, is breaking half as many tackles.
In recent years the All Blacks selectors have preferred players who aren’t afraid to do some of the less glorious work on attack. Jerome Kaino was a good link-man when necessary, but with a number 8 like Read on the field, it was more important for Kaino to hit the ball up in close contact to make space for his teammates.
Perhaps where Frizell stands out the most on attack, then, is in the grunt work. With over three pick and drives to his name per game, Frizell is again ahead of the other three contenders. None of the other options are even averaging one per match.
Jacobson is the other player to put his hand up for creating havoc for opposition teams – best seen in his superlative performance against the Highlanders. Jacobson is making more offloads and creating more linebreaks per game than the other blindside flankers. Jacobson’s ambitious offence, however, has led to him conceding the most turnovers and making the most handling errors per game.
The All Blacks have never been afraid to select players who are willing to chance their arm – there’s such a thing as a positive mistake. They’ll certainly have high hopes for how a player like Jacobson could potentially add to their attack, but maybe as a backup to Read who has a greater license to roam than the blindside flanker of the day.
Defensively, Jacobson is also performing to a high standard. Robinson has made the most tackles (111) of the contenders, but he’s also played 200 minutes more than Jacobson, who’s made only 9 fewer tackles. At over 14 tackles a game, Jacobson is comfortably the busiest on defence. Jacobson’s tackles are also more dominant than the other players’ and he’s been very successful at cutting down opposing runners’ momentum.
The biggest downside to selecting a player like Jacobson is his size. Jacobson is both shorter and lighter than all three other options, with Robinson at 110kg and 198cm and Fifita at 111kg and 196cm topping the log. This is no better illustrated than in the setpiece, where Fifita, Frizell and Robinson have all been used as genuine lineout options for their Super teams.
Having a blindside flanker on the field who can also be used in the lineouts is a huge boon for any international team and something the All Blacks selectors have always strived for. This factor certainly pushes Jacobson down the queue – the other players can, to some extent, up-skill in the areas that Jacobson excels, but Jacobson will never be the best physical fit for a world class blindsider.
There is one other area, however, where Jacobson has shown himself to be handier than the other candidates, and that’s in winning possession for his team during general play. Jacobson is forcing more penalties than the other three players combined – courtesy of his dominant tackles. Perhaps Jacobson’s size and prowess means openside is his more natural position.
There’s still time for players to make a statement in Super Rugby – especially with the finals series only a month away. Steve Hansen and his fellow All Blacks selectors will be particularly interested in how the possible blindside options perform in knockout matches, which will be more similar environments to test matches. At present, you’d have to expect to see Frizell and Squire selected in the All Blacks squad – but perhaps there’s still some wiggle room that the other candidates will be hoping to exploit.
Comments on RugbyPass
Should've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
19 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
19 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
28 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
19 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
28 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
19 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
90 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
4 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
9 Go to comments