All the storylines of the Super Rugby quarter-finals
Who would have thought that three teams placed outside the top eight heading into the final round of Super Rugby would qualify for the quarter-finals?
The Sharks, Chiefs and Highlanders were ranked 9th, 10th and 11th respectively before this weekend’s matches.
It was a simple equation but a difficult challenge for the Sharks: win against the Stormers in Cape Town and they would leap-frog the home side into the playoffs. The Sharks, of course, accomplished this feat with a 12-8 victory, but it took until after the final hooter had sounded.
The permutations were a bit more complex for the Chiefs and especially the Highlanders.
The Highlanders did all they could in their 49-12 win over the Waratahs to give themselves a chance of making the finals. Their qualification, however, hinged on either the Chiefs beating the Rebels but not by more than two tries, or the Lions failing to pick up any competition points against the Bulls in Pretoria.
While the Chiefs thrashed the Rebels 59-8, the Bulls were the Highlanders’ saviours, accounting for the Lions 48-27.
After the smoke had cleared, the Sharks, Chiefs and Highlanders had all jumped ahead of the Lions, Stormers and Rebels to clinch unlikely playoff spots.
This weekend’s results have now created some interesting storylines for the finals series.
Can anyone knock the Crusaders off their perch?
The Crusaders may still be run-away favourites for the title, but they’ll likely have to overcome at least two New Zealand sides to do it. The Crusaders have never lost a finals match in Christchurch and they have an 89% success rate in all matches at home. This win rate at home against fellow New Zealand sides, however, is sitting closer to 75%.
If any team other than the Crusaders are to win 2019’s competition, then many would have suggested that it would take a New Zealand side to knock them over at home. That’s now entirely possible (though still somewhat unlikely).
Two unique clashes to savour
Super Rugby’s curious structure means each team plays only 12 of the 14 other competitors during the regular season. That quirk means that the Brumbies and Sharks, who will meet in Canberra for a quarter-final, are yet to play one another this season. The same is true for the Hurricanes and the Bulls, who will meet in Wellington on Saturday night.
In contrast, Friday night would be the third time that the Crusaders and Highlanders meet this season, were it not for the fact that their first game of the season was called off.
Repeat offenders
Six of last year’s quarter-finalists have again made the cut this season. This weekend will mark the sixth time in seven years that the Brumbies have made the knockout rounds of Super Rugby but they didn’t feature last season – nor did the Bulls. 2019 will actually be the first time that the Bulls have qualified for the finals since 2013. Ironically, they lost to the Brumbies in a home playoff that year.
The Chiefs have now made the qualifiers for the eighth season in a row. This is the second-best streak of all time, with the Crusaders qualifying for thirteen years on the trot between 2002 and 2014. The Highlanders have also qualified every year since 2014.
Rematch in Buenos Aires
South Africa conference winners the Jaguares will host the Chiefs for the second time this season when they duke it out on Friday evening (Argentina time). When the two teams clashed earlier in the year, the Chiefs managed to score in the final five minutes to earn an unlikely victory away from home. At the time, it was only the Chiefs’ second win of the season.
Both the Jaguares and the Chiefs have significantly improved in the weeks since that fixture; the Jaguares are on a five-match winning streak while the Chiefs have seen co-captains Sam Cane and Brodie Retallick return from injury in the last month. The Jaguares have never made it to the semi-final stages of the competition and this weekend will mark their first home qualifier match.
New Zealand still top of the pops
For all the talk of the South African and Australian sides making up ground on the Kiwi teams, New Zealand has somehow still earned four of the eight spots in the finals.
Statistically, Australia and South Africa have performed better against New Zealand team in 2019 – but whether that’s due to an improvement on their behalf is still up for debate. Many of New Zealand’s top players had little to no pre-season preparation and were required to sit out a number of matches, which may have contributed to their lacklustre performances.
The Chiefs, one of the stronger sides in recent years, were hit ridiculously hard by injuries. Sam Cane made his first appearance of the season in round 14 while Brodie Retallick suited up only seven times. Damian McKenzie played his final game of the season in round 9 and Michael Allardice, who took over as captain once Cane and Retallick succumbed to injury, lodged only eight appearances himself.
While the Highlanders snuck into the playoffs by the barest of margins, they also played out two drawn matches during the season (plus the cancelled match against the Crusaders). Wins in those games would have seen the southerners finish in 5th spot and would not have been biting their nails so match watching the final duels of the round robin.
The Crusaders and the Hurricanes, meanwhile, were the top two performing sides in 2019.
Finals predictions
While the Highlanders likely have a greater chance at toppling the Crusaders in Christchurch than almost any other team in the competition, it’s hard to go past a victory for the home side. The Crusaders have underperformed in recent weeks and the Highlanders will be galvanised by the return of Ben Smith in what could be his final ever Super Rugby match. Still, expect to see the Crusaders in action again in the semi-finals.
Both the Jaguares and the Chiefs are on form at the moment – but perhaps the Chiefs side’s finals experience could be the deciding factor in their fixture. Only once have the Jaguares lost at home to the season, and with Cane and Retallick back in the saddle, a repeat result could well be on he cards. Whatever the case, it should be a high scoring affair, with the two sides ranked second and third for points scored in 2019.
The Bulls’ reward for crushing the Lions sees them travel to New Zealand’s capital to battle it out with the Hurricanes. The Bulls performed surprisingly well in Australasia this year, notching up a win and two draws. That tour, however, came finished up less than two weeks ago and the Pretorians may still be feeling the heat of travel. This should be the most comprehensive result of the weekend, with the Hurricanes in good form, but don’t be surprised if the Bulls keep in touch for the first hour of the match until the tiredness kicks in.
Saturday night’s game between the Brumbies and the Sharks could be the hardest result to predict. The Brumbies have a good record at home this year, falling only to the fast-starting Rebels. The Sharks, however, have only lost twice on the road. The unlikely victory against the Stormers should give the Sharks plenty of belief heading into the match but Australia’s sole finalists will be instilled as favourites of the basis of home advantage and their more consistent results throughout 2019.
Comments on RugbyPass
Safas are so triggered by Ireland. 3 consecutive losses, incl RWC. 8 losses out of last 12 Tests. Always excuses, of course, with Bok fans. Now Rassie with his “88%” nonsense, the Claytons Excuse is an embarrassment to Bok teams of the past when every test mattered. Their fickle mojo will be on edge for the Ireland tour. Have the referees been appointed yet ? They will need security. Have WR laid out strict guidelines for TMO’s and replays on the stadium screens ? Will the constant stoppages from Bok forwards for cramps and bootlaces be tolerated ? We’re not talking a dominant Springbok team here, they won the LOTTO Cup and they know it whether they admit it or not. The Disney doco has their fans positively fermenting internally, its going to be a nasty hangover if they get beaten on home soil. What will the excuses be then……
66 Go to commentsGreat role model.
2 Go to commentsOne significant tell, not a single Waratahs player stopped to whinge to the ref about Finau’s tackle. They got on with playing the game. Great tackle.
8 Go to commentsWouldn’t be a bad move if Ireland pulled into SA with a young side. Particularly in Pretoria. Invaluable experience getting thumped in the bosveld.
66 Go to commentsIreland. The Princess Diana of Rugby. I never cheered so much for a team as i did for the All Blacks in that QF.
66 Go to commentsWill be great to see the Leinster first XV back in action again after their cotton wool time…
1 Go to commentsLooked up Grant Constable on google and reply was doppelgänger for Ben Smith
66 Go to commentsIt is so good that we now all get excited and debate who is best and emotionally get involved. We all back our teams which is great. Up until about 15-20 years ago, NZ was basically on its own, and then Saffa, Aussie and sometimes French and English were there. We now have at least 5-6 really top sides and another 4 who keep improving. This is so healthy. So we should not resort to rubbish comments and unhealthy debate, but rather all be chuffed that the product we watch is not competitive, exciting and often uncertain. It would be so good if World Rugger could find a way to align the rules to professional players as well as spectators. Live rugby games are SO boring as there is SO much down time as we wait for refs and TMOs and whoever else to look at every small event going back endless phases with the hope of eventually find a minute infringement to then decide cancel what was a wonderful try. This is the ultimate cork back in the bottle moment and feels like every balloon is always being popped. Come on- we must be better with the rules.
66 Go to comments“upon leaving said establishment I tripped over a stool knocking some bottles into the air and as I fell I accidently dislodged a police officer’s teaser who was passing by on an unrelated matter there by landing on said taser which caused it to discharge 50,000 watts into me. Out of shock I shouted Ireland are going to win the world cup. Upon waking up I apologised for the distress caused by my Ireland comment. The matter is closed. If you wish to pursue this matter may I remind you what I told Wayne Barnes when he sent me off. I AM A BIG ASS MAN”. Or was it “I AM A BIG ASS, MAN” or was it “I AM A BIG ASSMAN”?
2 Go to commentsThe only championship the Boks hold are: Great value for the incompetence of referees during the RWC Moaning endlessly and champions of spewing utterly ignorant 💩 at all times. Displaying the dangers of a third world education End of.
66 Go to commentsSouth Africa and Rassie do a phenomenal job of treating the 4 years in between World Cups as nothing more than a training exercise to build squad depth. The Six Nations money that keeps Irish rugby afloat is unfortunately too important to allow the same approach, and basic population size means we'll never get close to matching the depth of South Africa, England and France. That being said, Irish rugby is in a relatively good place and slowly improving inch by inch. If the other three provinces can pull the finger out and actually develop some players it'd be even better.
66 Go to commentsGood on Clarke for taking on the criticism and addressing his deficiencies, principally his laziness.
2 Go to comments“It is the people’s favourite against the actual favourite. It is the people’s champions against the actual champions. I’m joking, but it’s going to be a fantastic series.” Why did Darcy make that joke knowing it would be used as click bait? Why did RP headline it as a serious comment? Anyway, the tired comment isn’t very astute. SA players may have played more games etc. Darcy over estimated as a pundit.
66 Go to commentsNot sure Frisch will ever make the French team with Depoortère and Costes waiting in the wings to take over from Danty and Fickou.
1 Go to commentsThe Irish are tired and the Boks are old. The test series won't confirm who is best in the world, it will confirm which team needs to pursue the task of rebuilding with the most urgency.
66 Go to commentsGrant, the first time I have seen an article written by you. Maybe I have missed your previous stuff. These days all professional players effectively play a common season so all top players are equally tired, or rested. That is the job of the coaching ticket to build squad depth and juggle resources so players are ‘ fresh’ when the big games come. Possibly Ireland are less inclined to juggle squad compared to Rassie, who is prepared to take the risk to rest players as well as build depth throughout the year so come WC he has a full squad, experienced and rested enough to win 7 games. After all, to win WC you need to get through the tournament and then win the final big 3 games. Ireland should try and build a bit so come final 3 they are ready. So far only played final 1(QF). I am so looking forward to the Irish tour. Hopefully Rassie has enough time to align his guys, as he draws them from across the globe, and not from 2 sides locally( eg Leinster, Munster). No excuses, going to be exciting.
66 Go to commentsIn football, teams get fined and sometimes docked points for deliberately fielding weakened teams yet Leinster can pretty much do as they please with no comebacks. Could it be because Ireland run the URC? Could it be that Ireland run the ERC? Whichever it is, it stinks!!
6 Go to commentsIreland are only the People’s Champions in Irish eyes. The rest of the world do not care for them very much because of attitudes of people like Gordon, Ferris, Best, Jackman…I could go on!!
66 Go to commentsNot sure how Karl Dickson can ever ref a Quins game, he played for the club for 8 years as understudy to Care and is still close friends with half the team
3 Go to commentsAre bookies taking bets on how many times Vunipola's eventual statement will use the term “elders"? My money is on at least 4 times.
4 Go to comments