FEATURE Brumbies must nail new defensive system to take next step

The ACT Brumbies go into their Super Rugby Pacific bye weekend sharing the competition lead with the Hurricanes and Blues, and with an eight-point and two-win advantage over the next best Australian side, the four-win Melbourne Rebels.

Where at the start of the year there were expectations around the NSW Waratahs, and much commentary within the first few rounds that the Queensland Reds would, or maybe even had, assumed top-dog status among the Australian teams, the Brumbies have just quietly gone about their business.

In something of a statement of where things really sit in Australia, in the last two rounds the Brumbies have beaten Queensland in Brisbane 20-19 – their second straight win at Suncorp Stadium – and dispatched NSW 40-16 in wet conditions in Canberra this past weekend.

“The score blew out a little bit there, but it was a really tough game for the boys. Lots of physicality from the Waratahs, and it’s just great to finish this block that way,” Brumbies head coach Stephen Larkham said after the win on Saturday night.

“We know we’ve got a long run now, in the next block, but there’s a lot of things that haven’t gone right for us and we’ve managed to find ways to win the games through this period.

“That puts us in a really good position now to learn from our mistakes, and hopefully get away from the game this week and come back and really try and grow into the second half of the season.”

The point about finding ways to win is an entirely valid one, and it’s the universally accepted measure of a good team, that ability to eke out wins from matches they perhaps should or could have lost.

The Brumbies have now won five straight games since being fairly comprehensively thumped by the Chiefs in Melbourne during the Super Round, and though they have certainly got better in each game since, there were a few hairy moments along the way.

Larkham spoke of learning from mistakes after the Waratahs win, but the Brumbies’ issues in 2024 don’t really fall into the simple mistake category. Their lineout and general defensive picture has been of concern all season.

They beat the Western Force in Canberra, 22-19, but the Force were left to lament Ben Donaldson missing a penalty attempt and a conversion in the last 15 minutes. They were comfortable over the Highlanders in Dunedin, and ran away from Moana Pasifika in Canberra, but had to come from behind to beat Queensland.

The old adage says ‘you don’t have to draw a picture’ about close or less than convincing wins, and any pictures of those Brumbies wins would certainly look better than some of the earlier ones.

Larkham spoke of learning from mistakes after the Waratahs win, but the Brumbies’ issues in 2024 don’t really fall into the simple mistake category. Rather, their lineout and their general defensive picture has been of concern all season.

The lineout remains a platform of the Brumbies game, but improving maul defence in the professional game over the last 18 months has significantly reduced their lineout drive ferocity in that time.

Where in 2022, roughly a quarter of ACT’s tries came via the lineout drive, in 2023 this dropped to less than one in every five – and no tries via the maul in their last six games of last season.

In 2024, the strike rate is down to just three maul tries from 27 overall, a tick over 11% for the year. And it took until the Round Four win over the Highlanders to produce their first lineout drive try of the year, which meant it was actually their first maul try in 10 games.

But aside from improved maul defences, the Brumbies’ lineout just isn’t delivering them the same high levels of set-piece ball they have enjoyed in recent years. In 2024, the Brumbies’ lineout success rate ranks eighth of the 12 teams on 82.1 per cent – and against the Waratahs on the weekend, it was down to 75 per cent. They lost five on their own throw as NSW lock Jed Holloway in particular caused all kind of disruption.

The Brumbies’ tackle completion rate ranked second last in the competition coming into last weekend. So they’re missing a lot of tackles, but their scramble defence has been super effective.

But they have been learning from this on the run at least, with the Brumbies using more front-of-lineout options in recent games, and with some success too, skilful hooker Billy Pollard making several short-side breaks from throws to the front.

The Brumbies defence has been the curious case in 2024, however. A new system implemented for this season is looking to add more speed to their defensive line, in line with current trends used with great success at international level. There was certainly a noticeable lift in speed and intensity through the second half on Saturday, as they looked to really put the foot on the Waratahs’ throat.

But the proof that the system isn’t quite fully bedded down yet can be seen in the Brumbies’ defensive stats. On one hand, conceding just 18 tries is only bettered by three other teams in Super Rugby Pacific this season: the table-topping Blues and Hurricanes, and curiously, the one-win Crusaders.

On the other hand, the Brumbies’ tackle completion rate ranked second last in the competition coming into last weekend. So they’re missing a lot of tackles, but their scramble defence has been super effective.

“If you talk about stats, and you asked would you take the tackle completion or less tries, you’d probably take less tries,” Larkham told me on Saturday. “We’re working harder when missing tackles, because other guys have to cover for us.”

The Brumbies coach knows how valuable the bonus point from the Waratahs win could become later in the season, but was equally pleased with only conceding the one try – even if the attempts to up the rush defence created some opportunities for NSW.

“Yeah, and they found some gaps there as well, so it’s a real trade-off,” Larkham added. “Coming off the line and leaving the inside man exposed hurt us a couple of times.

“We’ve been working hard, trying to get that balance of bringing the line speed and finding the connection, and we got hurt a couple of times. But it didn’t result in any tries, so there’s good scramble from the boys.”

If the Brumbies are to take the next step in this third season, it already feels like it hangs on these next two games – and especially their ability to nail down their new defensive system.

From the players’ perspective, stand-in captain Darcy Swain explained how faults within the system are easy to identify.

“If we’ve got time to set, and we can set our line before the attack sets, it works really well,” he said.

“I think when [the Waratahs] got through us, it was the opposite. They were set early and there were gaps for them, so it’s just about slowing their breakdown down and then being set before they are, so that way we can actually get up and make good decisions.”

So you get the impression that’s going to be an important focus for the Brumbies over the back half of the season, where straight after their Round Eight bye this weekend, they face fellow competition leaders, the Blues and Hurricanes, on successive weekends on either side of the Tasman.

Swain confirms as much: “You’ve just got to keep pushing it in training and making mistakes to learn from, and then we look to make the improvements we need to. It’s a new system, obviously, so it’s going to take time to perfect.”

But perfect it they must.

It’s no surprise that the teams they face next have also conceded the fewest tries, but where the Blues and Hurricanes differ from the Brumbies is that they also sit one and two in terms of tackle completion rates.

And that’s the level this ACT side needs to reach to be a true contender in 2024.

They have lost in the semi-finals in both the first two seasons of Super Rugby Pacific, but if the Brumbies are to take the next step in this third season, it already feels like it hangs on these next two games – and especially their ability to nail down their new defensive system.