This is not a dangerous All Black side for the Boks to 'watch out' for
The current form of the All Blacks suggests that they will be beaten in South Africa.
Not demolished, but beaten in each of the tests where home advantage will play a part for the Springboks in what would be their first home victories over New Zealand since 2014.
You can’t logically pick the All Blacks on hopes and dreams of a fiery response just because their pride and egos have been hurt. If that mattered, they would have responded in the third test against Ireland after winning just one of the last four tests.
They didn’t win simply because their execution is below par, while Ireland’s was superb, and that is the form they are bringing to South Africa.
The coaching staff has changed and the opponent has changed but the players haven’t. It remains to be seen how quickly the players can respond to new voices.
The Irish pack outworked, outplayed and out-thought New Zealand’s forwards, led by dismissed assistant coach John Plumtree, in the three-match series.
While Ireland have put together one of the best packs in the game, the manner in which their Kiwi counterparts crumbled across the second and third tests is of major concern.
Ill-discipline, missed tackles, poor reads in defence, bad angles all over the park – the All Black forwards were not a polished unit. Hidden in the tape are the questionable efforts and decisions.
At times, they produced good plays in defence. Whether it was Akira Ioane or Ardie Savea driving an Irish ball carrier sideways or behind the gainline, they enforced themselves defensively in short bursts.
Then, all of a sudden, the line opened up all too easily after some smart play from Ireland and the All Blacks would be scrambling with the defensive system reeling. This was the case early in every test match.
The Springboks will not whip the ball from sideline to sideline with meticulously planned moves like Ireland, and in that sense, the defensive reads for the All Blacks will be much easier defending a one-dimensional attack.
It will be as basic as see man with ball, hit man. When the Springboks backs try to play, the ball ends up on the floor or over the sideline more than coaches would like.
Stars like Cheslin Kolbe can pull off something brilliant as an individual when given half a chance, but ask them to put it all together as a unit and they tend to come up with rocks quite frequently, which is similar to these All Blacks.
The assignment ahead is brute physicality, yet the memories of Irish loose forwards regularly cutting through some feeble tackle attempts are still fresh. There is little confidence that the All Blacks will be able to hold ground against Bok carry after Bok carry for long.
Wales faltered in their third test against South Africa, but they actually found a technical defensive solution in the first test to blunt the Springboks’ runners. It worked so well it is hard to understand why they didn’t continue it.
The surprise recall of Dan Lydiate tipped off what Wales would try to do. The man known as “The Chopper” for his grass-cutter tackles led the way for a Welsh pack that cut the Springboks down at the knees.
One-by-one, the Welsh pack courageously rushed forward and went low to chop South Africa’s ball runners in half. The nearest defenders wrapped the ball carrier up top and made a total mess of the carry and ensuing breakdown.
Although dangerous and putting one’s self in harm’s way, the commitment by the Welsh pack to attack low with chop tackles paid off as the Springboks ground game went nowhere and faltered behind the gain line for most of the day.
Eben Etzebeth had five or six carries for a net gain of one metre, if that. He was well and truly handled by a gritty and committed opposing pack that put one of the Boks’ best ball carriers on ice, and that is a rare occurrence.
In the third test, the Welsh tacklers went high and they were steamrolled as multiple tries were scored simply by running one-off carries.
Handre Pollard and Siya Kolisi were the beneficiaries and scored barge-over tries when the Welsh line could not take the punishment any longer.
The All Blacks pack rarely gang tackle and don’t work hard enough to swarm the ball carriers after the chop like Wales did in Bloemfontein, and to be brutally honest, don’t have the daring to go that low either.
It won’t be their thing, despite the tactic being a success early in the Springboks-Wales series.
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In addition to stopping big ball runners, the All Blacks will also have to perform well in the air.
If they can nail the Boks behind the gain line, the ball will be promptly sent to the heavens and that means Jordie Barrett has to step up and perform at the level he did last year under the high ball, which was exceptionally well.
This year there have been concerns in the aerial game: in the third test against Ireland, the All Blacks failed to secure the high ball regularly, whether it was a kick-chase or diffusing one on defence.
The Irish tactic of using the one-handed back-bat disrupted the catch zone often and was a smart tactic the All Blacks backfield did not find an answer for.
The go-to for South Africa is clearly the rolling maul, which bailed them out in that first test against Wales, as it has on many other occasions.
The Irish mauled over the top of the All Blacks pack for two tries in Wellington, on the first maul attempt on both occasions.
The Springboks forwards will do the same if afforded the opportunity, and they likely will, based on the poor discipline demonstrated this season by the All Blacks.
New All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan will have to work magic in a short time to improve his pack’s efficiency across a broad range of areas, including the maul defence and discipline.
Milking penalties from the maul and scrum is South Africa’s plan A, B and all the way to Z. The All Blacks need solutions to stop the piggybacks occurring and head coach Ian Foster will be hopeful that Ryan has those answers.
If the All Blacks are ill-disciplined like they were against Ireland, the Springboks will play their set-piece-athon game without much fuss and will control proceedings and the clock.
They don’t need to be that good elsewhere, strength and power should be enough to get them home against an out-of-sorts All Blacks side with plenty of issues to get through.
The narrative this is a dangerous All Black side to watch out for because they are losing and hurting is total nonsense.
Will they be tough to play? Sure. They will fight hard as all All Blacks sides do. But will they be dangerous? The evidence says absolutely not.
A dangerous All Black side is one that is winning regularly and putting 40 points on opponents playing an attractive brand of attacking, clinical rugby that looks unstoppable.
They are clearly not that side. You couldn’t dream of a better time to play them over the last 20 years than right now when they are losing test matches left, right and centre with instability in the coaching staff.
Who would you rather play, a winning, in-form All Black side or a losing, out-of-sorts one?
The Springboks have two games at home and not only is two wins on offer, it is the probable outcome.
If they can’t beat the worst performing All Black side in 25 years in their own backyard for the first time since 2014, when will they?
Comments on RugbyPass
Wasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
3 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
3 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
3 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
30 Go to comments