The damning trend that could foreshadow a huge loss for the Wallabies in the final Bledisloe Cup test
As New Zealand fans were reminded during last year’s Rugby World Cup in Japan, the All Blacks sometimes lose.
Even the most consistent team in the world is not going to get it right every week and all it takes is an off night from the men in black – or a comparatively excellent performance from their opposition – for Kiwis to have to sit back and reflect on the fact that the All Blacks are not unstoppable.
Rarely, however, do the All Blacks lose two matches in a row. In fact, it’s only happened once in the last decade.
In 2011, with the World Cup on the horizon, head coach Graham Henry made the decision to send an understrength All Blacks side to South Africa for NZ’s third game of the Tri-Nations. The likes of Owen Franks, Brad Thorn, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Cory Jane and Mils Muliaina – many of who started in the World Cup final months later – were all left at home for the All Blacks’ 18-5 loss. The following week, Australia also managed to upset New Zealand in Brisbane.
Since 2011, however, the All Blacks have never lost two matches on the trot – which is why the Wallabies’ hopes of snaring the Bledisloe Cup back after their loss in Auckland were slim to none.
It’s also why Dave Rennie’s introduction to test rugby was never going to go well, despite the coach’s immense promise.
With one more Bledisloe Cup match still to play before the Wallabies have the opportunity to tackle the relatively tame Pumas, things are only about to get tougher for the man that coached the Chiefs to back-to-back Super Rugby titles in 2012 and 2013.
There’s simply no bigger challenge in international rugby than kicking off your career with four games against the All Blacks and it’s a series of games that could have long term repercussions on Rennie and his young charges.
The Australian sides that have challenged New Zealand for the Bledisloe Cup over the last twenty years have all been talented, but with each defeat the players have become weighed down by history.
Man for man, the All Blacks have typically had stronger teams than their trans-Tasman rivals – but the gap has not been so big to justify the two decades of dominance by the Kiwis.
Instead, the repeated losses have built up an impossible mountain for Australia to climb. That mountain was significantly smaller at the beginning of this test season, when Rennie announced a squad populated by a slew of uncapped youngsters.
Many of Rennie’s 2020 debutants actually had winning records against national NZ sides until the Bledisloe Cup series kicked off – but those records have now been smashed to pieces, with a 0-3 ledger kicking off their international careers.
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New men such as Harry Wilson, Noah Lolesio and Filipo Daugunu could be long-term Wallabies – but few players take straight to test rugby and these young Super Rugby AU stars need time to bed themselves in. It’s hard to do that when you’re on the end of a few floggings – and things could get even worse this weekend.
The All Blacks haven’t played a four-match series since the game went professional and until recently, three-match series was also incredibly rare. In the last decade, however, New Zealand have hosted three-match series on six occasions, and there’s a clear trend in how the All Blacks have performed as the back-to-back-to-back games have progressed.
New Zealand tend to put in a respectable if not rusty performance in the first game, winning by an average of 17 points. Despite the players’ limited time together at that stage of the season, they are still relatively fresh compared to the Northern Hemisphere tourists, who are at the end of a long season.
After a few tweaks to combinations and tactics, the second match is often the closest of the series. Three times, against Ireland in 2012, England in 2014 and the British and Irish Lions in 2017, the visitors have kept the result with three points (or, in the Lions’ case, actually scored a win).
It’s in the third game, however, when the All Blacks tend to cut loose. They’ve spent plenty of time together in camp, they’ve worked out the flaws in their opposition’s game plan, and they’ve got their own tactics ticking along nicely.
In 2012, they beat the Irish 60-0 – despite the 3-point margin a week earlier. In 2016, they smashed Wales 40-0. Two years ago, they crushed France 49-14. The average scoreline in the third game of a three-match series with NZ is 41-11 in the All Blacks’ favour.
That’s exactly why the All Blacks’ 43-5 drubbing on Saturday night shouldn’t have come as a big surprise – and why next week’s game could be even more diabolical for the Wallabies. If the margin spike in the third game of a series reflects the All Blacks’ improvement over a string of games against the same opposition, then the Wallabies could find themselves on the wrong end of an absolute drubbing in Brisbane next weekend.
Had the Rugby Championship gone ahead as planned, before the Springboks pulled out of the competition, the Wallabies would have a brief respite ahead of them while the All Blacks would need to shift their focus to a new team. Instead, however, Australia find themselves poised for a fourth barrage – and things could be about to get ugly for the young, inexperienced team.
Comments on RugbyPass
Je suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
25 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
25 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
25 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
25 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
11 Go to comments