Sexton's absence puts Ireland back in the 2015 territory they vowed would never be repeated
Fresh from their uplifting destruction of Scotland in Yokohama, Ireland now go in search of making it two wins from two when they take on World Cup host nation Japan in Shizuoka on Saturday.
Here, RugbyPass assesses some of the dynamics surrounding the eagerly awaited Pool A encounter against the Japanese who got their own World Cup campaign off to a win over Russia last weekend in Tokyo.
Johnny Sexton’s absence, the Irish losing streak against RWC host nations and the return of the Conor Murray aerial bomb are among the topics highlighted ahead of their second match at the finals.
No Johnny, no drama?
Being without Johnny Sexton isn’t the situation Joe Schmidt would have wanted for this big World Cup match against host nation Japan.
It was December 2015, two months after their Sexton-less capitulation to Argentina in the quarter-finals, when IRFU high-performance boss David Nucifora promised mistakes would be rectified and that Ireland wouldn’t again be winging it in huge RWC games with inexperienced starters like Ian Madigan, who had just five Test starts as a No10 when given the jersey against Los Pumas.
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However, this vow to cement experience into the back-up options if Sexton was ever to be injured again hasn’t gone to plan as Jack Carty has come from nowhere in 2019 to get the nod to take over at No10 from the pained Sexton against the Japanese.
You can partly blame Paddy Jackson getting sacked by the IRFU for this awkward situation that has materialised despite Ireland playing 45 matches since the last World Cup and having ample opportunity to better build their squad depth in the key flyhalf position.
With Schmidt selecting Sexton at No10 in 28 of those games and also handing nine starts to Jackson, there was not a whole lot of exposure left for anyone else to enjoy as the Ireland No10. Carbery was given six starts before his August injury versus Italy, with Ross Byrne and Carty only getting their first starts in the subsequent World Cup warm-ups prior to Japan.
That has left Schmidt caught in a Madigan-type situation which Nucifora insisted nearly four years ago would not be happening again on his watch.
The bad sequence of results against RWC hosts
An Ireland win against a host nation at a World Cup is long overdue. Co-hosts Australia battered the Irish in a Sydney quarter-final in the first finals in 1987, Scotland then dished out a beating at Murrayfield in a 1991 pool match, while France were far too good for a befuddled Irish XV in a 2007 group encounter in Paris.
That rotten run must now stop if Joe Schmidt’s Class of 2019 are to consolidate their grip as favourites to win Pool A. One curiosity surrounding the fixture, though, is how Ireland’s last encounter against the Japanese at Shizuoka has only had a follow-through for a limited number of players.
The two-week 2017 tour to Japan while the British and Irish Lions tour was on in New Zealand was billed as a dry-run for these Japanese finals, but 13 of the matchday 23 from that Ecopa Stadium win failed to get selected in Ireland’s 31-man squad for the World Cup 27 months later.
Simon Zebo and Paddy Jackson were ineligible as they now play their club rugby abroad, Rory Scannell, Devin Toner, Finlay Bealham and Kieran Marmion were in the RWC training squad but missed out on the 31, Quinn Roux, James Tracy, Kieran Treadwell, Jack O’Donoghue, Rory O’Loughlin and Tiernan O’Halloran were overlooked altogether while Dan Leavy was injured.
Garry Ringrose, Keith Earls and Cian Healy are the only three repeat starters from the 50-22 win in Shizuoka, with Luke McGrath and Rhys Ruddock dropping to the bench on this occasion.
With Ireland's matches about to start prior to the Rugby World Cup, Garry Ringrose sets the scene and reflects on his journey from 2015 to now https://t.co/oorB7Z3HmJ
— liam heagney (@heagneyl) August 5, 2019
Murray’s bomb is back in vogue
Warren Gatland certainly isn’t a fan of Ireland’s play, the Wales boss having a dig when his team were choked in the second half of the recent warm-up encounter in Dublin. His view won’t have changed despite the Irish demolition job on Scotland at the World Cup, but no Irish fan will give a fig for what their 1999 World Cup coach thinks.
Ireland go about their business in a certain clinical way under Joe Schmidt and it was no coincidence that Conor Murray’s return to top form came in a match when the Irish kicked the ball from the hand on 39 occasions.
Only Russia on opening night kicked as much in the opening dozen matches at World Cup 2019, Japan kicking 33 times, Tonga 31 and New Zealand 30 before the numbers dip into the 20s and even fall to Australia’s meagre 12 versus Fiji and the Fijians’ tally of just nine kicks versus Uruguay.
Murray’s contestable kicking was a massive weapon during Ireland’s stellar 2018 and it appears as if his bomb is now back in vogue judging by the problems his 14 kicks from the hand caused the Scots, particularly amid the second-half deluge in Yokohama. More of the same in Shizuoka and the Japanese will be very much put on the back foot.
Your team for Saturday's showdown in Shizuoka #RWC19 pic.twitter.com/SOhBSe7THf
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 26, 2019
The one area where Ireland lost out to the Scots
The Japanese haven’t been shy in alleging skullduggery at the scrum by Cian Healy. It is purely gamesmanship aimed at planting a seed in the mind of referee Angus Gardner and his team of officials, but Ireland will still be concerned about ensuring they do get the rub of the green.
Joe Schmidt teams are normally well behaved, yet the one black mark from their demolition over Scotland last Sunday was how they came out the wrong side of Wayne Barnes’ penalty count, Ireland conceding seven penalties to Scotland’s six.
It was a curious statistic as Ireland in their nine previous matches in 2019 had never come off worse on the penalty count. They had given up a total of 67 penalties prior to Yokohama, on average seven a match, compared to the oppositions’ total of 89, on average nearly 10 a match. But on this occasion, they were deemed to be the naughtier side.
Lightning strikes twice
Ireland’s lineout has come in for much scrutiny throughout 2019. With just 104 of 124 throws safely secured during their nine matches prior to RWC, their set-piece was running at just an 83 per cent success rate and there were fears that their ten from 15 success rate at Twickenham in August could fester and carry on into the World Cup.
However, Rory Best was as right as rain in Yokohama, his official figure of 12/12 against Scotland giving Ireland their first 100 pert cent return at the lineout since last February’s 11/11 in their previous win over the Scots at Murrayfield.
With the same starting pack now chosen for Shizuoka, there is every confidence last Sunday’s set-piece reliability can now continue against the Japanese and give Ireland a winning platform, especially when it comes to catch and drive opportunities inside the opposition 22.
WATCH: Ireland train ahead of their vital World Cup clash against host nation Japan
Comments on RugbyPass
Should've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
19 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
19 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
28 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
19 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
28 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
19 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
90 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
4 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
9 Go to comments