Paul the Super Rugby Oracle’s Round 11 Tips: Sunwolves Will Triumph in Tokyo
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
Paul made some bold calls last week, none more so than picking the Lions to beat the Hurricanes – a prediction which will surely go down as his worst of the season as the Hurricanes went on to win 50-17. Together with a bad call on the Stormers vs Waratahs game, this wildly incorrect pick meant another 6/8 week for Paul to bring his season record to 59/78; his percentage holding steady at 76%. Here’s what Round 11 holds in store.
Crusaders vs Reds
This is a match the Crusaders should win, and should win comfortably. Given the sort of form they’ve been in over the last month or so – and particularly in that demolition job on the Brumbies at Canberra – they should have far too much oomph across the park for what is a moderate Reds outfit. But they have to be careful: that untidy outing and late escape at Perth is recent enough not to be forgotten just yet.
The Reds have a decent set piece and can apply pressure that way, and, like most underdog teams, the longer they stay in the game the more they believe. Set against that the fact they haven’t won in New Zealand since 1999, quite a few hidings ago, and you suspect this Reds side won’t actually believe it can win this one – at least, not unless they get a lot of help.
Pick: Crusaders (13 and over)
Brumbies vs Bulls
Depending on your tastes, this could be an interesting match or a crashing bore. What it does promise is a clash of similar styles – and who has the better game at present is open for debate. The Brumbies forwards probably won’t be talking to their backs this week, since the attacking potential of the side started and stopped with the rolling maul at Invercargill, but they could have done themselves a lot of favours by kicking early penalty goals, showing just a glimmer of imagination or varying their play just a little bit. At the moment the Bulls are playing more accurate rugby than their hosts, but you can’t overlook home field advantage here: the Brumbies are 8-1 against the Bulls in Canberra, with the visitors’ only win being in 2007. So despite a couple of less than impressive recent showings I think the Brumbies will get a much-needed win here.
Pick: Brumbies (12 and under)
Sunwolves vs Force
Help! How can anyone possibly be expected to either a) pick this one or b) watch it? The Force have little going for them, with their only saving grace the fact that they kick almost all their goals. The Sunwolves have a little more imagination, many of the same limitations and only a slightly worse kicking percentage. Between them they are 2-15 this year, and the only reason one of them isn’t at the bottom of the log is because the Kings are in the competition. Still, I’ve seen enough from the Sunwolves to suggest they’ll go out and get another win, running their streak to an all-time high of two.
Pick: Sunwolves (12 and under)
Chiefs vs Highlanders
These teams forged a rugged rivalry last year, and the Highlanders seem to have developed a liking for the tough contest that this match always seems to become. Both teams have injury concerns, both still have their biggest stars on the track and both have the never-say-die attitude they’ll need. This was exemplified by each team last weekend when both won games they could easily have lost (and in the Highlanders’ case, should have lost by a mile). Trying to pick a winner really comes down to trying to balance the Chiefs attack against the Highlanders defence and goal-kicking. Given that the long-range forecast is for a decent sort of a day with no talk of rain, I think I might go for the attacking punch to prevail.
Pick: Chiefs (12 and under)
Waratahs vs Cheetahs
After their quick in-and-out trip to South Africa the Waratahs might be wondering which continent they’re on – but that might be the only thing that the Cheetahs have going for them just at the moment. The Waratahs took a very good win at Cape Town and, as noted here last week, look as if they’re getting their mojo back (not to mention some sort of coherent game plan). That has a lot to do with Bernard Foley getting back up to speed but he’s basically there now – and the Cheetahs don’t have a playmaker who can match half of him. I’ll be surprised if the visitors can stay within 20 points.
Pick: Waratahs (13 and over)
Sharks vs Hurricanes
This should be an interesting contrast in styles: watertight defence against an attack that can shred any cover in the blink of an eye. The Hurricanes didn’t have to do a lot against the Lions except say thanks for each error and freebie, because try after try was handed to them through some pretty naïve play – something the Sharks are never guilty of. They won’t, for example, play 40 minutes and make only one kick from hand in that time, while forcing a bunch of passes that let the Hurricanes swoop. Neither will they run out of patience, but they will tackle all day. But they probably won’t play to anything like their true ability unless forced to, and against this Hurricanes team that may well be too late. Given what’s been happening with the ‘Canes in recent weeks, I think you could just about write your own ticket on the Sharks, and I’m going to stick with the visitors.
Pick: Hurricanes (12 and under)
Kings vs Blues
The Blues haven’t won away from home since Sean Fitzpatrick was playing (actually it was against the Force in week 17 of 2014 but you get the idea) – any ground outside the greater Auckland area is the kryptonite in their track suit pants. So starting a South African tour against the Kings, who have just made the out-and-back to Argentina and copped a hiding while there, is no bad thing. The Blues are much better than the Kings; they just have to concentrate and not get too flashy and they’ll win by a lot. Details from the Rebels game that require attention are things like passing to the unmarked man while he’s still unmarked, kicking goals, not forcing passes when taking a tackle is a better idea and a few other things along those lines. Sort that out, and that road hoodoo will be road kill, and there will be a healthy spread as well.
Pick: Blues (13 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
A wallaby front-row of Bell, Blake and Tupou…now that would be hefty
1 Go to comments“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
11 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
10 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
11 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
24 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
10 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
17 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to comments