Masters at weathering the storm: Why the Springboks' first-quarter domination wouldn't have fazed the All Blacks
On Saturday evening the All Blacks opened their World Cup campaign with a win against a team that many expect will make the grand final.
The Springboks may have faltered over the last decade but head coach Rassie Erasmus has helped restore some shine to the once feared South African side.
They’re certainly a side that’s given New Zealand plenty of grief over the last year and a half.
In 2018, the Springboks did the unthinkable and pipped the All Blacks in their own back yard. The return fixture in South Africa could have also fallen the way of the Boks were it not for a roaring final quarter that saw New Zealand score three exceptional tries.
Earlier this year, come the 80th minute of the two nations’ sole face-off, there were no points separating the teams and the game in Wellington ended in a draw.
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Three matches over two years ended with a net-zero points difference, which is why so many expected another close encounter in Yokohama earlier this week.
Springboks scrumhalf Faf de Klerk was quick to acknowledge that the two nations are neck-and-neck at the moment.
“I think it’s going to be 50-50,” de Klerk said.
“It’s going to come down to a lucky moment or a referee call.”
Every expectation was that the match was going to be a close-knit affair, but it was the Springboks who looked to have the early ascendancy.
First-quarter onslaught
For the first 20 minutes of the fixture, the All Blacks managed just 45% possession. Even when they had the ball, however, they found no chinks in the Springboks’ defensive line and were, more often than not, losing ground on their own carriers.
In fact, in those first 20 minutes, New Zealand were on the attack in South Africa’s half for just 53 seconds.
Remarkably, the All Blacks only gave up three points – courtesy of a long-range penalty goal to Handre Pollard.
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Whilst many would have seen the first quarter of the game as an ominous sign of things to come for the men in black, New Zealand aren’t a team that tends to do a lot of damage early on in games.
In fact, the All Blacks’ average advantage after 20 minutes of playtime in matches has been less than three points since the beginning of 2018.
Take out games against tier-2 sides Tonga and Japan and that advantage drops to just over a point. Further omit Argentina and Italy and the All Blacks are barely breaking even after a quarter of gameplay.
Despite that, the All Blacks have finished their fixtures with average margins of 20 points, 16 points and 13 points against all teams, tier-1 teams and top opposition, respectively.
Slow starters or fast finishers?
Some will say that the New Zealand side are slow starters and take a bit of time to really get into their work.
Others will argue that the massive jump in margins from quarter to quarter are more down to the opposition falling away throughout the game.
There’s certainly some truth to both trains of thought.
An Irish rugby writer has called for a stop to the All Blacks haka, saying it "gives New Zealand an unfair advantage".https://t.co/TgoPyyU8LM
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The numbers dictate that while New Zealand tend to score considerably more points later in matches, they concede them evenly throughout. Opposition sides don’t struggle with getting over the line against New Zealand as the game wears on, but their defences certainly give way to the wave of black.
Given the above, the All Blacks’ victory over the Springboks shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone just because the South Africans had the upper hand in the first quarter.
It’s also why punters shouldn’t have been surprised at New Zealand’s comfortable 36-0 win over Australia in the second Bledisloe Cup match this year, despite the Wallabies earning a record win in Perth the week prior.
Red card subdues fight back
In the first test, Australia went into halftime with a 4-point advantage. That’s almost a 7-point turn-around from the margin New Zealand would typically start the second half with, but a deficit of that magnitude wouldn’t normally have worried Kieran Read’s men.
The All Blacks, of course, went on to lose that match – but also had to play the whole second half with just 14 men after Scott Barrett was rightly sent off for a dangerous tackle.
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Despite outcry from New Zealand fans and the general discourse that the All Blacks were slowly stuttering towards a relatively early World Cup elimination, the coaches wouldn’t have been overly concerned.
The red card was fairly given as a major contributor for the loss, however some suggested that this was papering over the real issue. After all, New Zealand were already losing at halftime.
That ignores one of sports’ great truisms, however; games are not won or lost in the first half.
Yes, the All Blacks did look under the pump.
And yes, at halftime the Wallabies were performing better than their counterparts from across the Pacific.
But as the All Blacks have regularly shown over the last two years, and as they again showed on Saturday night, the world’s top-ranked rugby team do considerably more damage in the final two quarters of their games than in the two preceding.
Multiple methods of madness
By the end of the All Blacks’ opening World Cup match, they had still only managed to push their territory and possession stats up to 41% and 47%– but they’d also spent more time on attack in the Springboks’ half.
More tellingly, they also found chinks in the Springboks’ armour.
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Whilst it’s generally beneficial to be making ground with every carry, the All Blacks showed that you can keep battering away at a defensive line, be monstered backwards each time, and still score some ripping tries.
All sides benefit from a territory advantage, but New Zealand are the best team at scoring tries even when they’re primarily camped out in their own half.
In recent years, the British and Irish Lions, South Africa, England, and Ireland have all managed to subdue New Zealand’s hit-ups.
The Springboks did it again over the weekend – but the All Blacks still managed to capitalise thanks to stretching their opponent’s defences across the width of the field and also thanks to some x-factor plays by their many talented individuals.
There are still some issues with the All Blacks’ attack, but Saturday night showed that it will take more than just dogged defence to keep the men in black from scoring tries.
The Springboks’ line held secure for a quarter of the match, but come the final whistle the All Blacks had managed to do what they always do best: slowly build into the game, force the opposition into making mistakes and then ruthlessly capitalise.
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
4 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
4 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
25 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
13 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
25 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
13 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
4 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
13 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
12 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
13 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
13 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
13 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
13 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
45 Go to comments