'I don't understand why people are not picking Ireland': Cohesion expert on RWC favourites
For a team that has beaten every major rival and claimed the World No 1 ranking over the past 14 months, Ireland are flying under the radar as far as expectations are concerned for the Rugby World Cup.
While unbeaten since game one of the New Zealand tour last July, Andy Farrell’s team have been given just a 46% chance of topping their pool in the World Cup by fans using the RugbyPass Road to the Final predictor.
It is indeed an incredibly competitive pool the Irish find themselves in, with fellow top-five ranked teams South Africa and Scotland along with Tonga and Romania to play. Even recently retired Scotland fullback, Stuart Hogg picked his homeland to miss the quarter-finals with the Springboks topping the pool.
However, former Wallaby Ben Darwin begs to differ. The prop is the General Manager of Gain Line Analytics, a company that has developed a methodology for success based on cohesion factors and consults teams across the globe on selections.
“We believe there’s a misunderstanding about how teams work,” Darwin explained on the Aotearoa Rugby Pod. “That the driver of success is not actually the individual skill of a team, but more around the collective understanding.
“Whether that be interpersonal understanding, system understanding, role understanding.”
Darwin pointed to international teams being successful with combinations that have thrived at club level as an example of interpersonal understanding, and changing coaches who want to implement unfamiliar structures as an example of poor system understanding.
“What we’re saying is, the individual skill factor might make two or three per cent difference, we find cohesion can make up to 80 per cent differential.”
The methodology has proven successful in reflecting the results of previous World Cups, with no team ever lifting the Webb Ellis Cup without being top three in the cohesion metrics.
So, what is Darwin’s prediction for this World Cup?
“I don’t understand why people are not picking Ireland to win the World Cup.
“They’re the best team in the world. They’ve been the most accurate, they’ve been the most consistent.
“I think people are going for what’s happened before with them, and Ireland’s been growing now, basically in their performance for the past 25 years.
“But, if you look at it as they are a reasonably cohesive team, it means between the World Cups they’re at their peak and it looks like they sort of fall away. But it was also to do with other countries peaking.
“I just think, the way they’re built at the moment if things go right for them and right for everyone else, they’ll win it. I think things have to go badly wrong for them and significantly right for other people for them to fall short.
“I think it will be Ireland over New Zealand in the final.”
Ireland begin their World Cup campaign against Romania this weekend, boosted by the return of captain Johnny Sexton.
Sexton and his men will face South Africa and Scotland in the final weeks of pool play in two Tests that could conceivably be a final preview.
While the return of their influential captain is critical to Ireland’s World Cup ambitions, Darwin looked elsewhere when naming who will be the best player of the tournament.
“I’m going to give you two answers, I think Aaron Smith will be voted as the best player in the world but I think the best player in the tournament is Tadgh Furlong.
“We never get voted Player of the Match for anything, tight-heads never get recognised but Furlong’s easily the best player in the world right now.”
Comments on RugbyPass
Big empty stadium does nothing for atmosphere but munster are playing well with solid performance
1 Go to commentsYes, Fiji can win the World Cup! With that belief plus their christian faith🙏 and hard work it is achievable. Great article. Ian Duncan Fiji resident 1981-84
2 Go to commentsInteresting comments about Touch. England’s hosting the Touch World Cup this year and the numbers have exploded since their last World Cup in 2019, something like 70% more teams and 40 nations taking part. And England Touch have made a big thing about how many universities are in their BUCS University Touch Championship as well as Sport England membership. Can only see this growing even more domestically as more people become aware of it
10 Go to comments“Cortez Ratima is light years ahead of anyone on current form, while TJ Perenara has also skyrocketed into contention following the unfortunate injury to the talented Cam Roigard.” At last some sanity. Hitherto so many pundits have been wittering on about Finlay Christie to the point one wondered if they were observing a FC in a parallel universe where the FC they saw wasnt just the mediocre Shayne Philpott project of Fosters hapless AB reign in the real world. Ratima, Perenara and Fakatava are the ONLY logical 9s for Razor now Roigard is crocked.
2 Go to commentsThis game was just as painful as the Hurricanes game. It was real fork-in-the-eye stuff.
2 Go to commentsNow if they could just fire the Crusaders ground PA guy who likes to play his dance music and just loves the sound of his own voice the entire game, even when play is going on. And I thought their brass band thing of a few years ago was bad.
5 Go to commentsUnfortunately when you lose by far the two form players this season in Roigard and Aumua, you're left replacing two game changing Tanks with a couple of pea-shooters. Which is also about the speed of TJs pass.
2 Go to commentsBit rich coming from the guy with zero loyalty to anyone or any team, including happily taking a players place in a league world cup squad because well, SBW wanted to play in it and thus an already named player got told he was no longer going. And airing stuff like this, which may or may not be true, doesn't exactly say you're a stand up guy either SBW. Just looking to keep his name in lights as usual.
38 Go to commentsTamati Tua. …the Taniwha NPC midfielder. Ollie Sapsford, Hawkes Bay NPC midfielder…doing well
2 Go to commentsFiji deserve to be in the rugby championship, fans love seeing the Fijian national team play, the Fijian Drua is a wonderful idea but the players can still be stolen to play for NZ and AUS…
2 Go to commentsThe first concern for this afternoon are wheather forecast…
1 Go to commentsWhy cant I watch Rugby games please?
1 Go to commentsBeautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
5 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
34 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to comments