The Blues Pero-future is here, and it's better than you think
Inside another lost Blues season lies the promising future of the franchise.
After years and years of searching for a quality first five-eighth, they just may have found one. A deeper look behind the surface reveals that 21-year-old Stephen Perofeta isn’t just a regular 10, he’s an attacking force in the making.
Is he still raw? Yes. Does he make mistakes? Yes. He’s not the finished product but neither was any rookie 10 in their first season of Super Rugby. He’s featured in 13 games this season, starting at first five-eighth 10 times.
His first appearance of the season came in the third match as Bryn Gatland’s replacement against the Lions in South Africa. He first took the field with the Blues down 28-10, and finished his twenty-minute cameo with the Blues winning their first game 38-35. He led a similar second-half fightback against the Stormers the next week which did enough to convince the Blues coaches to hand him the starting role. Outside of one start at fullback, he has played at first-five since.
Control and maturity will come with experience – his option taking has been a little bit wanting at times and his out-of-hand kicking isn’t reliable enough yet. What’s not debatable is his raw attacking ability – when compared to other rivals in his position, the young playmaker outranks nearly all of them.
To measure the efficiency or effectiveness of one’s playmaking or vision, we looked at run/pass totals and the line break/line break assist totals of each first five-eighth to determine who has the best conversion rate. Who is more effective at breaking line, rather than who breaks the line the most.
Those with the lowest ratios show the best return and present the biggest threat. Perofeta’s line break ratio of 5.92 is the best in the competition for a 10, ahead of Damian McKenzie (8.75), Beauden Barrett (9.63), Richie Mo’unga (12.33) and Lima Sopoaga (15.00). He will produce a line break roughly once every six runs, the most productive running game of any first five-eighth.
When it came to ball-playing efficiency, Perofeta ranked second in the competition with a line break assist ratio of 12.00. Only Yu Tamura of the Sunwolves had a better return (11.80), but he only played six games. Close behind Perofeta were the Crusaders pair Mitch Hunt (12.78) and Richie Mo’unga (12.92). The rest of New Zealand’s first fives were also in the top 10 – Lima Sopoaga (14.50), Damian McKenzie (14.55) and Beauden Barrett (15.79) but Perofeta was more effective than all of them.
Whilst the passing totals used to calculate the ratios don’t differentiate between shifting ball early or taking on the line, it does give some insight into ball-in-hand creativity. It also indicates that the Blues may be better served designing plays around Perofeta taking on the line, given that he shows exceptional ability in creating opportunities.
To understand just how good these numbers are, a comparison with fellow rookie first fives paints a better picture. South African stepping whiz Damian Willemse shows a decent LB ratio of 13.83 but a poor LBA ratio of 36.20, illustrating a lack of playmaking in his passing game. The Queensland Reds future flyhalf Hamish Stewart had an LB ratio of 17.0 and an LBA ratio of 29.0, which ranked in the bottom five in both categories.
The Blues have a natural attacking talent that doesn’t just blow his age-peers out of the water, but competes and betters the very best in playmaking efficiency.
You might be thinking that this attacking production is the result of risky play, and the flip side is a kid who is plagued by errors. Whilst he may make the wrong decision (for example, kicking when ball-in-hand looks promising), his actual turnover rate is surprisingly low at 3.13%. That’s better than Richie Mo’unga (3.58%), Beauden Barrett (4.07%), Damian McKenzie (4.33%) and Lima Sopoaga (5.24%).
Perofeta’s weakness is his kicking game, and the Blues have shied away from giving him too much responsibility in this area. He kicks half as much as Barrett or McKenzie, with a higher kick error rate than the two.
This will be an important development area for him, as without it he will never be able to control a game and close out wins with territorial kicking. What Barrett lacks in passing efficiency, he makes up for in predatory anticipation instincts and world-class out-of-hand kicking. He can pull a rabbit out the hat from anywhere, and dictate terms from the back with the boot.
At just 21-years-old Perofeta is the best prospect the Blues have had since Carlos Spencer, and after one season is already proving he will be a majestic playmaker like the King.
The Pero-future is here, and it looks good.
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Comments on RugbyPass
No question they were the better team. But that is the beauty of sport isn’t it!
94 Go to commentsEveryone is into Hurling in Ireland according to Porter, but only 11 of Ireland's 32 counties enter a team into the national competition. Same old blarney.
1 Go to commentsLet’s be honest. The draw and scheduling in the World Cup was a joke but South Africa found a way after having to go the hard (nearly impossible) way to the Cup Final via France and England. NZ had a hard game against France (lost) and had 5 weeks to prepare for the Quarter, 3 weeks knowing it was Ireland. NZ theerfore had to win one big game against an Irish team who played SA and then Scotland 7 days before. They won and it was de facto a semi final because they were playing a relatively weak Argentina team and it was a walk over. In the final a very rested NZ team was playing a very tired SA team and still lost. They couldn’t score more than 11 points. Put another way SA had to find a way to win while tired and they achieved that. NZ should thank their lucky stars that they fixed the scheduling in 2015 otherwise they would be dealing with a Bok treble.
94 Go to commentsPerhaps if Bongi wasn’t targeted and removed from the game in the first 3 minutes it would have been quite a different game. Maybe if NZ also faced the same competition the Boks faced to their win NZ would have looked quite different. The final score shows who outplayed who.
94 Go to commentsRubbish article! Abuladze played most of Exeters matches when fit. He got injured against Glasgow a while ago and is out for the rest of the season, thats why he hasnt played for Exeter and Georgia recently. Do some proper research next time!
1 Go to commentsGotta love it when kids throw their toys out the pram and can’t hack it with the grown ups debate. Here’s looking at you turlough! 😉🤣
148 Go to commentsThey lost the game period move on
94 Go to commentsSpringboks won! Stop winging. You can change the game however much you and your rugby colonizing IRB want to and the Springboks will win you at that too. Your mind is colonized my friend get a life
94 Go to commentsBen, nobody gets fooled anymore by selective and biased data to support an hypothesis. Games are decided on such small margins these days that you win some and lose some, and dominance is a thing of the rugby past. Look at the RWC circle of fortune…. Ireland beats SA who beat France who beat NZ who beat Ireland. And so it goes on. Match officials help to eliminate real indiscretions. If they had been with us years before, no doubt results would have been different. Remember Andy Haden’s dive from a lineout in 1978 for which a match-wining penalty was awarded? Wales should have beaten the ABs that day. They took the loss like the gentlemen they were.
94 Go to commentsWith all the analysis and how good the all blacks were.The fundamental mistake with the ABs is that this is a test match and not an exhibition.There is no better team(country) in world rugby than the Boks that knows how to win a test match(we are post masters at this).We know our rules, we have the discipline, we tackle like beasts, we take our points and we never give up.I now have educated the ABs supporters(at least say thank you).Please stop “bitching” , accept what the outcome is and move along swiftly.
94 Go to commentsAnd they came from behind to win two big games before the final. No one can say what would have happened. Had the boks gone behind the game plan changes and the result may changes. Ifs and ands are irrelevant. The boks won. Neutral critics enjoyed the games they played. Its not a popularity contest. Get over it and move on.
94 Go to commentsI'm happy for the people of SA to get a second WC. And I mean that. I was very disappointed with this man's “stand on the hand” incident with Josh Van Der Flyer (Ireland). Ireland's downfall in the last WC was they did not rotate their first 15 as the head coach probably should have. That said, I'm happy for SA and genuinely hope it lifts the mood in their country. Ireland did beat them in the first match of the tournament. And before the trolls start trolling ….. please don't bother. Etzbeth said recently that the Irish players said after the match “see you in the final”…..this was actually wishing the SA team the best of luck in the rest, the Irish team were not dismissing the AB’s. This is what Etzbeth was implying. But he was wrong. I no longer live in Ireland. But I hope to see them lift that cup before I pass. Anyway, congratulations SA. 👍
12 Go to commentsMore bloody click bait. Dan Carter has said absolutely nothing. As he should do. Poor journalism again from a site that should know better
9 Go to commentsOh god please help these loosers get over it!!!! You lost. Doesn't matter how many times you dummies are gonna analyse the game, you still lost and we are still Rygby World Champions….get over it, you lost.
94 Go to commentsThe next Willie le Roux. SA are made not to use him.
3 Go to commentsDan has always been as controversial as tea with milk so we were never going to get any definitive answer. So DMac for the win.
9 Go to commentsGoodness. When are the All Blacks and New Zealand commentators going to stop complaining about how they could have won and just try to win next time 😂. In South Africa if you lose you get up and try again. Get over it.
94 Go to commentsHonestly, it doesn’t matter a whole lot. RSA has a ton of experienced talent in its leadership group. I am more interested in who is the new 8 man/8 men and the younger props. The captain may change but the system does not
1 Go to comments“See you in the final” can mean whatever you want it to mean. To me it means that 12 Irish rugby players are a bunch of poeses. See y’all in Pretoria.
148 Go to commentsBen, you are one of the most arrogant and self opionated rugby critics I have ever come across (next to Keohane). I hoped that after SA beating the best ranked teams in the world on their way to the WC (something not done before) that you might have the grace to admit that this is a special team that deserved the accolades coming their way. You have no humility and as has been been already pointed out, merely a troll to attract audience numbers. Count me out in the future.
94 Go to comments