Analysis: Did the All Blacks ‘bottle it’ and shadow-box against Ireland?
After a review at the ‘macro’ factors surrounding the All Blacks try-scoring troubles abroad this November, a review of the ‘micro’ details of the Dublin test reveals a very uncharacteristic All Blacks game.
Aside from the execution errors, the decisions and game strategy executed by the players was very foreign, unlike anything we have seen for them this year.
“We are still stuck between the old way, and the new way, and we haven’t got it right yet,” explained Hansen after the 16-9 defeat.
There are many aspects of this All Blacks performance that just don’t add up on the face of it. The deeper you dive, the more suspect it becomes.
The first observation being the forward pack, the tight five in particular, looked like they had played a game already before stepping onto the pitch.
This performance had some of the poorest transitions into shape you will see from an All Blacks side, almost right from the start, with many of the tight five failing to retreat on kicks, and set up adequately with the pod ball carrier, dropping three-man pods down to two like flies, getting into position late and disrupting the flow during phase play.
It was like the forwards had run a marathon before the game, or were carrying significant injuries, with many walking around the field during play.
We know the main All Blacks squad skipped the Japan test to head to the UK a week early. Did they get flogged with pre-season conditioning for two weeks in order to be able to simulate fatigue during late-World Cup knockout games, turning these two massive games into a semi-final and final trial run?
With this tour being the only chance to play the top Northern Hemisphere sides before the World Cup, it wouldn’t be out of the question to turn this trip into a World Cup dress rehearsal and experiment with such an exercise.
It is also plausible the team could have just hit a wall with late-season fatigue, but with the quality of personnel on the field, it’s hard to fathom that they would be gassed after just ten minutes.
It was clear that something just wasn’t right and it only got worse throughout the match.
The All Blacks opened the game with a territorial kicking back and forth, before winning an attacking opportunity inside Ireland’s 22 inside the first three minutes.
It would be the first and last time in the match they would breach Ireland’s five-metre line. The Irish defence soaked up 12 phases, mainly of one-out forward carriers, before Read became isolated and Josh van der Flier and CJ Stander were on him like magnets.
It was odd in two ways, the approach was forward-dominate and conservative in an attempt to bully their way over but it also began to fall apart quite quickly despite being early in the match.
They played one-out rugby in tight quarters but lost shape in this early attacking raid, players were over-committing to rucks and they were churning through carriers. It looked like the 84th minute, not the 4th minute.
By phase 10 Owen Franks (3) is left with only Ardie Savea (7) inside. Jack Goodhue (13) offers an unders line outside him and back-up cleaning support. Four All Blacks are on the ground in a heap at the last ruck.
Franks takes the carry and is joined by Savea, Goodhue and even Ryan Crotty as cleaners, using another four players at the breakdown.
The previous ruck comes around the corner for the next carry, with Kieran Read (8) setting up first and Karl Tuinukuafe (1) and Sam Whitelock (5) struggling to make it around in support. The pass has already been delivered and both aren’t in ideal position yet.
Read is tackled and the Irish loose forward duo of van der Flier and Stander are quick to target the isolated runner, finding strong position over the ball and winning a penalty for holding on.
Aside from the concerning lack of energy, the tactics are worth pointing out.
This just isn’t All Blacks rugby in 2018 – they tend to stick with a width game inside the opposition 22, staying within their pattern and playing edge-to-edge through back door passes. However, this tight game off 9 is what Ireland do inside the opposition 22.
Just one week after beating the English at their own game at Twickenham, is it a possibility that they tried to do the same thing against Ireland and shelve their normal game plan?
Further abnormal behaviour from this side was the distinct lack of ball-movement from the forwards, in favour of one-dimensional carries. This was at times, a necessity given the inability to set-up correctly.
Here in the 12th minute in the early stages of the contest, the All Blacks spread to the right edge and we see a group of forwards, half of them walking, to set up the next carry back.
Aaron Smith has the pass loaded and only Ardie Savea is in position, with Whitelock in front of him and Tuinukuafe also on his left side.
As the play develops the spacing is a mess, and costs the side an opportunity to use McKenzie out the back. One Irish defender bites in on Whitelock leaving a massive gap between the next man Josh van der Flier.
The All Blacks are not prepared for, and not interested in, using a swivel pass and releasing McKenzie for this opportunity.
This carry-first approach was apparent throughout the whole game, evident in some telling statistics.
The forward pack, bench or starting, had zero offloads, just one tip pass and used the backdoor pass just four times from a possible 29 situations in the game. That’s only 13 percent of the time they moved the ball once the target received the ball off 9.
As a comparison, during the third test against France in one of the most clinical performances of the year, Damian McKenzie got the ball 60 percent of the time he lined up in the diamond.
From the minimal set-piece platforms they had, it’s not apparent what they were working for.
They often worked the same way with multiple carries and succeeded in creating short numbers in the Ireland defence, but didn’t use them. Above on the third phase the same way after a scrum, the halfback’s pass has released with only three defenders covering outside Squire.
Damian McKenzie (15) is looking for an unders line off 9 outside the two forwards, over commits and has to back-pedal.
With Garry Ringrose biting down, if Squire is able to play Barrett out the back the All Blacks would have an opportunity down the left edge with Rieko Ioane out of shot, even with McKenzie having to recover.
Squire is intent on playing the pre-programmed carry in the movement, with eyes only for contact despite drawing two defenders.
On the next phase, Barrett tries the first of four grubber kicks used in this area of the field during the match, all four which were cleaned up and recovered by Ireland.
Another carry by Squire late in the first half has McKenzie wrapping around the outside with an overlap developing, but the ball dies again in the tackle.
Even in the transition game, with limited turnovers the All Blacks usual ‘two-pass’ approach and intent of pushing to the edge was absent.
With Ardie Savea (7) winning a loose ball on Ireland’s scrum early in the second half, he breaks to the open side with a full back line but opts to carry with acres of space available on the edge. On his next turnover opportunity, he uses a kick through that resulted in a 22 restart.
There was a distinct lack of intent to move the ball in situations the All Blacks usually thrive in. At times it was due to a lack organisation before the play, which looked to be the result of fatigue.
The decision-making and game plan was night and day from their last test against the Wallabies in Yokohama. As good as Ireland’s defence and line speed is, the decisions and game strategy are two controllables that are determined by the All Blacks, not pressure from the opposition.
Did they shadow-box this game to stop Ireland getting familiar with them? Did they deliberately exhaust their players in the preparation as part of a bigger plan? The performance on attack was so far off what you normally get from this side that suspicions start to formulate, especially when world-class players struggle to align consistently and hold onto the ball.
As much as a conspiracy theory as it sounds, the All Blacks received Board-level approval from the NZR to play a second string side in Japan. There has to be a reason for that. Is a pre-World Cup simulation exercise, that involved putting the players under exhaustion, out of the realms of possibility? Or did they just hit a massive, end-of-season wall?
They didn’t play like their normal selves, in more ways than one. It’s probably time to give them an off-season to recover.
Comments on RugbyPass
NZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
22 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
22 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
22 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
22 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
28 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
22 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
28 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
22 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
90 Go to comments