Mark Ella is fed up of Australian rugby, and he doesn’t bother to watch the Wallabies any more. At Loftus Versveld last Saturday, we found out exactly why, after Eddie Jones’ much-heralded return to the green-and-gold fell as flat as a first-time soufflé.
It was a theme Jones took up when his sensational homecoming was announced back in January:
“Mark [Ella] was saying he doesn’t want to come and watch us play until we play well. We need Mark to be at the ground.
“If you just look back at when the Ellas came through. In 1977-78, they played Australian Schoolboys. They went and won everything in the UK and it set off a movement in Australian rugby.
“They changed it back to an aggressive, running style of rugby and they changed the fortunes of Australian rugby that culminated in the Grand Slam in 1984…
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“Australia ended up winning the World Cup in 1991 and then 1999. We want to start that period again. We’re not short of talented players here but talent doesn’t win World Cups.
“What wins World Cups and wins the hearts of people is teams playing with that same spirit the Ellas had – being aggressive, playing with a certain panache.
“That doesn’t mean you run with the ball all the time because kicking can be as artistic as running the ball.”
Eddie embroidered on the last paragraph by claiming that “Possession rugby is dead.” When he went further, adding that “75 per cent of tries are being scored within three phases – 75 per cent”, the message was clear; Eddie’s Australia would play the same kind of three-and-out rugby as England, in the last gasps of his time at Twickenham.
Eddie Jones was true to his word in South Africa. Australia only played over four phases on two occasions, and their kicking game invited the Springboks to greedily grab the lion’s share of possession and territory – 63 per cent of the former and 60 per cent of the latter.
South Africa built 100 rucks to only 39 by the Wallabies and forced the men in green and gold to make 168 tackle attempts in the game. They enjoyed 19 entries to the opposition 22 compared to a mere three by Australia. By the end, it looked as though the change to a deeper orange-gold jersey was not so much a fashion statement, as the result of bodies thoroughly saturated by sweat from repeated tackle sets.
Eddie’s Wallabies kicked, and then they kicked some more. No fewer than 12 of a total of 32 kicks were launched from positions well outside the exit zone – from the Australian 40-metre line upwards. Five of the kicks occurred inside the Springbok half of the field, and only two of the dozen enjoyed a positive outcome for the kicking side.
It was a sad summary of just how far Australia has fallen behind the trendsetters in the global game. When RG Snyman came off the bench in the 53rd minute to join his Munster club-mate Jean Kleyn in the South African second row, it was a symbolic moment, because South African progress since their World Cup triumph in 2019 has been triggered largely by the movement of their ex-Super Rugby franchises to the United Rugby Championship.
When playing URC footy, you avoid kicking the ball away to the likes of Leinster or Munster. If you do kick it, they will keep it – and it may be a long time before you see the pill again. The rugby renaissance in the Republic has taken a huge step forward with the new-found comfort of South African teams on the ball.
The Wallabies game-plan dragged the character of play away from the strengths of Australia’s key players like a vicious rip-tide: Rob Valetini carried five times in the game; Tom Wright, Marika Koroibete and Suli Vunivalu carried 15 times between the three of them. That is not nearly enough for a back three.
Quade Cooper only enjoyed six total touches at first receiver, and three of those were exit kicks from deep in his own end. His last act was to kick the ball out on the full from a goal-line drop-out in the 68th minute, and that as much as anything was a suitable epitaph on the Aussie head-stone.
The Wallabies kept the ball for more than three phases on attack for only the second time in the game shortly afterwards, promptly knocking the ball on in their evident excitement at breaking Eddie’s three-phase rule. Possession rugby is an unfamiliar friend indeed to Aussie teams in the modern era.
The early evidence that Quade had the necessary sharpness to create when given the opportunity only rubbed salt in the wounds:
This was the second occasion in the first eight minutes that Cooper had unlocked the Springbok defence, taking out the key defender (Springboks No 13 Lukhanyo Am) with an accurate cut-out pass beyond him. That enabled Len Ikitau to turn the corner and Marika Koroibete to finish out on the left.
Far more often, the Wallabies automatically kicked the ball away when they could have kept it with profit:
Cooper makes a bust straight up the middle after a lineout turnover, but Ikitau doesn’t appear to consider using the three men outside him to make further progress with ball in hand. He kicks the ball straight away and he kicks it straight out, bringing play back to another Springboks lineout just outside the Wallabies 22.
An initial runback on a first-half kick return by Valetini prompted another automatic three-and-out sequence:
After another drive by Michael Hooper, there is space for Tom Wright to release Suliasi Vunivalu on the right, with the last defender (Kurt-Lee Arendse) already static well inside the left 15-metre line. Why not give Vunicalu a chance to show whether he can really be ‘the best wing in the world’, as his coach claims? Wright kicks instead, the ball is blocked and South Africa turn the ball over.
The contrast with the Springboks’ attitude to the idea of moving ball by hand, from positions well within their own half could not have been more stark. South Africa did not feel the same reservations at all:
Twice on two consecutive phases, the men in myrtle green are quite happy to attack the last defender in the line and probe for weaknesses without resorting to the boot. The last pass released right wing Canan Moodie on a long run into the Australia 22, and set up South Africa’s first try of the game on the opposite side of the field:
Right from the kick-off following the conversion, the Boks were at it again:
Manie Libbok spots the Wallabies defence short of numbers on the right after a midfield kick-off receipt has turned into a maul, and his run takes the play all the way back to the Wallabies 22. Over the entire sequence, South Africa kept the ball from the 14th to the 18th minute, almost four minutes in total. Isn’t that what Australia used to be so good at? Keeping the ball patiently, and probing for weaknesses with ball in hand?
The Boks were happy to move the ball across the entire width of the field – even on exits, even from positions in the shadow of their own posts – in order to find the right kicking opportunities:
No short relieving touches here. The South African backs shift the ball confidently from left to right and are prepared to explore the running options first, before No 12 André Esterhuizen stabs the ball through to find the whitewash on the halfway line. That is the kind of play that keeps the defence off-balance and keeps them guessing, and it is a staple of the best teams in the United Rugby Championship.
It was also plain that the South African players off the bench were just as well-equipped to identify the same opportunities late on in the game:
There is no real space for Moodie, but South Africa are quite prepared to give him a crack at Tate McDermott from a scrum on their own 40-metre line, one-on-one near the right touch. If Vunivalu is going to be picked, why not at least give him a chance to make a similar impact?
The Wallabies showed what might have been on the last sequence of the game, with nothing left to play for:
It is the third phase and another kick-to-order, but at least it is an accurate grubber with some intent behind it by Australian debutant Carter Gordon. That moment was like an oasis in the desert. As ex-Wallabies skipper James Horwill put it afterwards:
“The failure to not really fire a shot – [except for] that last little bit – was the most disappointing part. You look at the possession stats, and time in [the] opposition 22, [it] was 47 seconds in the whole game. That just tells the story. We were just absorbing. They were coming in waves after wave and it showed in the end.”
On paper, Eddie Jones had picked a strong Australian side for the first match of his homecoming versus the Springboks. South Africa left out eight or nine first choices, and the situation looked primed for an upset by the green-and-gold. The prospect of a first win in eight attempts at the northern stronghold of Loftus Versveld in Pretoria loomed large.
In the event, the outcome could have been just as bad as the record 61-22 loss suffered by Greg Smith’s side at the same venue in 1997. Australia scored first and last, but South Africa racked up 43 unanswered points in the meaty middle of the match.
The most worrying aspect for supporters of Australia was not even the players themselves; it was the game plan. The tactical structure only took the Wallabies past four phases of attack twice, and it marginalised the big runners who love nothing more than the feel of the ball in their hands.
Rob Valetini, Marika Koroibete, Tom Wright and Suliasi Vunivalu had a total of 20 carries between them. Quade Cooper had six touches at first receiver, and his final act was to kick the ball straight into touch from a goal-line drop-out, seemingly as much in frustration as anything else. Three-and-out football, religiously applied, does not allow such talents to thrive.
It was the prodigal son’s first game back on his return home, so there remains every hope that Eddie Jones will rectify matters in due course. But on first viewing, Australia resembles England circa 2021-2022 far too closely for comfort, and that ended in an unhappy shotgun divorce. Until Jones’ vision of the game changes, he will only see Mark Ella’s back, not his beaming smile. Until then, the great man will keep on walking.
Why the bloody hell would you pick suli in the first place, but then pick him and plan not to give him the ball!?! If you want to play a kick heavy game, pick a winger that can kick, catch and defend. These are not suli strengths.
Are we plain awful at kick offs? That we were opened up directly from a kickoff like that is shocking. And we concede possession from kickoff often, ours and theirs
Conceding possession in just about every conceivable area right now Oz...
That was a good game for Aussie to get under their belt in some respects, they matched SA nearly everywhere on the park (didn’t have too many headaches from the poor scrum) for most of it. Just a shame it didn’t match the hype. That it was clear they were so easily beaten by whether (or not) you were able to take your chances, was only matched by how clear it was Australia utterly succeeded in implementing their game plan. Eddie will say part of it was in the losing in the contest and be believed, but he also wouldn’t expect that to change. He should quickly find some better ground if he truly believes in this scoring from phase play stat someone has told him.
You look at the other game this week and its very easy for that team who’s trying to find their mojo again to instead be deceived by their match. What took place at half time that didn’t before it? A big drop to the quality of the bench but it didn't have much impact on the game? Have you answered questions or posed more of them at this point!? So which coach has really got a clearer picture after last week. Still I do worry Eddie is eroding the belief they were building in themselves when he insinuates they cant win unless they – read Eddie himself - can work some miracle. It’s a big regret not getting to see what Australia would have brought this first game had Rennie had the chance to continue as he was. Comically Eddie could be the one believing in the All Black psyche of keeping your powder dry before a World Cup. As though Cooper looked so slick and primed like a world beater it would be a shame to not see how much momentum he can build in this team(similar to this weeks 10 for the Abs) if used as the playmaker from hand and foot. For one who’s been a bit petulant over the years he seemed to stay focused in that game admirably, where it would have been very easy for him to fall asleep. Even with the tactics we still weren’t rewarded with not having to see the pointless and risky 1 out ruck plays before clearance kicks ☹
On the other hand we were rewarded with getting to see some of SA’s new talent - which will suit their cat and mouse attack or defence mind games nicely this week. Well lets be honest, it will be a continuation of what weve all seen since 2019 from SA, its back to box kicks this week, but they do try.
I reckon you're underestimating the Boks Jon, they've got a lot more in their locker now, which is why guys like Damian Willemse are picked at 10. Take a look at the November game v England and you'll see how much they have come on.
The problem for Aussie is that their strategy didn't create any chances for the middle 70 minutes of the game. That may well be down to poor execution but with England it didn't work even when they were getting plenty of ball.
Having said that I can see Aussie beating Argy this weekend, but whether this will prep them for NZ is another matter. Eddie would need to win at least one of the games v the ABs to make WB supporters believe it was right to sack Rennie.
I think French flair also kick the ball quite a lot but at least they have pilfers distributed throughout their team that either turn you over or slow the ball down to avoid these kinds of embarrassing scorelines.
Good to see you here for the informed discussion again WL!! Yes France are built around Shaun Edwards, but Aussie don't not have that kind of knowhow on their staff!
Hi Nick, so this where you have been hiding. I really wanted to see Hodgey at 15 with Marky Mark at 14. Marika K is already chasing hard so they would have been much better chasers of the ball if you plan on kicking the ball a lot. I would have started R Arnold and Skelly with Frosty/Holloway at 6.
Happy to be found WL, at least you will get half your wish with Marky at 14 v the Argy this weekend. He will win you more high balls back than Suli, both kick chase and KO chase. Still not convinced the lesser spotted Arnold is anywhere near as good as his bro though...
Great insight Nick. I'd worried about Eddie's muddied statement re 'the Australian brand' + kicking thrown in. Really it's a whole meal-full of possession is dead tactics. Thought the kick chase was so terrible it must have been a tactic. At this point as you suggest, it's all about the capability to learn for the coaching team and players, so all is not lost. Hopefully there's not too much sunk cognitive cost in the current mindset that being more adaptive is ruled out.
Yes it's only one game Tom, but then again the time frame is extremely short before the WC starts. There are just four more experiments available, and I'd say this one might have been wasted.
Thanks Nick,
Just confirms my suspicions that the Wallabies game plan in attack was just as poorly thought out as the defensive one. Eddie Jones' media comments are a mess of contradictions and it looks like that confusion is coming through in the game plan as well.
Also he doesn't have the group of support coaches he needs Dan.
Nick another great article and everybody is wondering where to from here. There is nothing to do but up the effectiveness at the breakdown and support runners. The scrum is a nightmare which I am hoping will be over when Tupoa and Bell are back.
The D needs a couple of weeks of nothing but tackling practice as we have been weak at this for a fair while.
It also has me thinking about what is the best game plan and where is the flexibility for different teams and different pitches.
Another low point for Aussie supporters used to accepting new low points and we are all are thinking, when will we hit the bottom and start to rise.
Yes the good thing is that there are ppl to come back in up front, as you say. Bell and Taniela were an exceptional combo back in 2021, and a pack based around them and Skelton and Frost could be pretty scary. Add in Slips and AAA and it should be very solid, just need a rake.
Another low point for Aussie supporters used to accepting new low points and we are all are thinking, when will we hit the bottom and start to rise.
Don't worry you quickly get used to that in Wales! 😂
Great analysis yet again Nick. And while I understand Eddies point that 75% of scoring comes within 3 phases, if your opposition knows you will kick within 3, it makes it far too easy to defend. You can kick often within 3, but you occasionally have to attempt more in order to keep the D guessing. The game reminded me of nothing more than a square peg being shoved forcefully in a very round hole. A painful watch, even for a neutral.
I'd like to see those scoring/phase figures after tries from line-outs are excluded.
Thanks DD. Yes it probably needs to be a lot less prescriptive than it appears right now.
Excellent approach, Nick. It was definitely a poor execution and questionable gameplay options. When Quade, Koroibete or Kerevy touch the ball frequently, they let you feel some adrenaline rush. But none of that happened. 3 visits to 22 M and 8 total phases executed in the red zone is very little fuel to ignite the fire of odds in contemporary test rugby. Unless you have maximum effectiveness. The Wallabies and Los Pumas saga continues.
Yes you can build pressure in a number of dffierent ways, but carriers like Marika, Kerevi, Skelton, Bell, Tupou and Bob Valetini are the keys to which one Aussie should employ! You can add Marky Mark and Jordie P to that group too.
There are multiple ways for teams to play rugby successfully. Too easy to get sucked into biases about styles. The fact is that the two most successful RWC teams each have 3 titles (of the 9 ever contested), but have played in very contrasting ways. That's cool, btw.
What you have with EJ is a progressive and courageous coach. He sees around corners better than almost anyone, and certainly more than the average fan. And he is seeing something about game plans that leads him to a very strong conviction about this Australia game plan. He apparently believes that great execution of these ideas is a breakthrough strategy.
The reaction we see is unfortunate. It was in England, and we are seeing the same in Australia. Essentially it is about people pleading for conventionalism and conservatism. Make the obvious selections, lay out the mainstream game plans, and take no coaching risks. Great recipe for heroic mediocrity, or defensible failure. Instead Eddie is willing to innovate, to rethink, and to look for counter-intuitive answers.
The Japan win over the Boks in 2015 was substantially about Bok complacency (historically the biggest Bok problem), but also very much about Japan executing an unconventional EJ game plan to perfection. To state the obvious, that involves two things: a game plan and the execution of it.
So what did we see on Saturday? Great execution of a bad plan? Poor execution of a good plan? Or a bad plan done badly? Well it certainly wasn't good execution of anything. Hint: without good execution it's hard to even understand the plan, let alone evaluate it.
The bottom line is that if you hire an innovator you could have world beating magic, but there is downside risk (at least in the short term). If you hire a conventional coach (as England did after Eddie) then you have far less downside, but a lot less chance that you will change the world.
FWIW I do think that Eddie is going to deliver a competitive team. They will need match practice and a bunch of adjustments, but I expect to see a credible Australia at the RWC.
“So what did we see on Saturday? Great execution of a bad plan? Poor execution of a good plan? Or a bad plan done badly?”
Well we know now, Flankly,
A mix of number one and three.
I hear ya Flankly but how are you going to score if you don't use the chances Nick highlighted in this article? I mean, did he really expect to win on penalty goals as it appeared?
Clearly this.
And this is exactly how we know. Very few mistakes made that game. White kicked great. Despite what is read here chasers often pressuring. Very few missed tackles, I can't tell you which but most breaks were from either better coaching (targeted) or better game plans (open play). To be clear, both are on Eddie, it didn't appear to me that players were caught sleeping or didn't hold to their lines. They just taken by surprise down the flanks or given the wrong reads in training.
I do agree with you though, I just also think you must be able to accept that these coaches (Eddie) aren't fallible. Very easy things to fix, minus some of that defensive stuf.
You have the situation upside down.
Eddie tried the same 'breakthrough strategy' with England for the better part of two years, and it didn't work then. It has not been adapted to suit his current group of players on the evidence so far.
'Conventional' and' conservative' would be perfect words to describe what you saw from Aussie on Saturday. It is also risk-averse, as events at Loftus amply proved.
It's easy to call Eddie an innovator, but if he's isn't currently innovating, then what does that leave? I guess we'll find out.
Forget the myth and the past, and look at the man, and where he is right now.