Why a repeat of Japan's 2015 Rugby World Cup heroics could be on the cards
The 2015 Rugby World Cup gave us two major talking points before the knockout stages arrived: Japan beating South Africa and England becoming the first host nation to not qualify from the group stages.
Both were momentous, memorable events that generated greater interest in the tournament, which, in the end, was a fairly predictable and straightforward victory for New Zealand.
Rugby World Cups have never been particularly competitive. There have been upsets, of course, mostly involving France beating New Zealand or Wales losing to a Pacific Island side, but there are usually no more than three or four teams with a real chance of winning. More than that, it’s rare that the group stages throw up a surprise. Even in 2015, Japan failed to qualify for the knockout stage and England’s ‘Group of Death’ was so obviously unbalanced (it also contained a good Fiji team) that the organisers delayed the seeding for this tournament to avoid a similar situation.
This time around, however, the group stages look considerably more competitive. We should see a number of third-seeded teams make a real play for the knockout stages, with only Group B looking reasonably straightforward for New Zealand and South Africa. Even there, Italy’s recent improvement means they can’t be taken as lightly as they might have done previously.
In Group A, Japan seem well-set to cause an upset.
The Brave Blossoms’ chances
Host nations, current holders of the ‘biggest upset’ title after their exploits last time round, and ranked eleventh in the world currently – in some ways, it seems odd to suggest that Japan qualifying from the group would be an upset. But, while stranger things have happened, they don’t often at rugby world cups.
In Japan’s way this time lie Ireland and Scotland, currently ranked third and seventh in the world, respectively, while Russia (twentieth) and Samoa (sixteenth) will also be looking for a moment of glory. Of those teams, only Samoa are likely to have much experience of playing in the kind of humidity and temperatures that will probably feature in Japan. The home nation, meanwhile, having been honing their fast-paced brand of rugby in those conditions for some time now.
https://twitter.com/espn/status/645299118903062528
Moreover, of course, they have had a taste of the ‘upset’ drug and will certainly want more. They won three games in the last tournament, the most of any side not to qualify from the group stage, and it was only a bonus point that separated them from Scotland, who had a much kinder schedule. This time around, Japan have lengthy turnarounds rather than the four days they had last time between their heroics against South Africa and the second-strongest side in the group, Scotland.
Although the Sunwolves, Japan’s Super Rugby franchise, will be cut after the 2020 tournament, the Japanese Rugby Union has made clear that the Top League is their preferred way of developing the national side. The influx of high-level players into the league suggests this policy might well work, with a number of current All Blacks and Aussies set to have a stint in Japan after the world cup. Concerns about the future Japanese pathway remain, especially with so many international stars in their league, but for now, players such as Duane Vermeulen, Israel Dagg, Kwagga Smith, and Matt Giteau mean the Top League is getting stronger.
https://twitter.com/JRFURugby/status/1064639821417607168
Captain and talisman Michael Leitch has acknowledged as much, saying in an interview with Kyodo News, “The Top League is getting more competitive each year. We’ve got better players coming, better coaches, so the level is getting better”, while expressing a concern that it hasn’t yet reached the level it needs to, noting that, it’s “not enough to prepare us to beat top Tier 1 countries”.
Although his side have only beaten Italy of the Tier 1 sides in 2018, they managed to draw with France away in 2017 and have scored 30+ points in losing efforts against both Australia and New Zealand in that time, giving England a scare last autumn, and comfortably overcoming most of their Tier 2 opponents. The gap is closing.
Leitch, aiming for his third world cup, has also said that Japan are relishing the respect they have been accorded recently, adding that they are aiming high. “There’s no reason we can’t beat the teams in our pool,” he said, adding that the goal is “to win every game. We have to set our targets high and keep driving for it.”
He is, however, remaining grounded, insisting that the opening game against Russia is the most important for his side. “It’s the first game, they are a good physical team, and if Russia are going to win a game at the World Cup, they are going to beat Japan. That’s their main goal and they’re going to come out and give us everything they’ve got. If we go in with the mindset we have beaten them before [the game kicks off], we’re going to get done.”
His attitude is sensible but fans could be forgiven for getting carried away. Japan have home advantage, a serious national league, a reputation to uphold, and some serious talent. Leitch’s fellow veterans, Amanaki Mafi and Fumiaki Tanaka, will also be aiming to build on their previous successes, joined by younger players like Keita Inagaki and Timothy Lafaele. Promising young talent Shota Fukui is unlikely to make the cut for this World Cup but is certainly another one to watch.
Comments on RugbyPass
🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
26 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
26 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
26 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
26 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
26 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to comments