The All Blacks who are on the World Cup selection bubble after 2022
The All Blacks made significant strides in 2022 towards finding the 33 players who will jump on a plane to France next year, with many experienced campaigners potentially on the outside looking in after the turbulent season.
The coaching shake-up that saw new assistants Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt join the All Blacks staff has altered the arc of a few playing careers, propelling some into the frame whilst others have slipped in standing.
With nine months to go until the start of the tournament, there is sure to be one or two late bloomers burst into contention and injuries will always play a role in the final selections.
For the All Blacks, the backs for the World Cup squad are far more settled with most of the positions already secured, while it is the forwards that offer the most uncertainty.
The positional group that saw the most change in 2022 was the front row, once new forwards coach Jason Ryan arrived the All Blacks he swiftly introduced new props and a new rake.
The new trio of Ethan de Groot (24 years old), Samisoni Taukei’aho (25) and Tyrel Lomax (26), all in their mid 20s, started most of the tests following the first loss to South Africa and as such are expected to remain the first choice front row heading into next year barring a colossal form drop or injury.
There were five props taken to the last World Cup, and with the expanded squad size available next year there conceivably will be six taken in 2023, while it is still expected three hookers will be taken.
Joe Moody coming off an ACL injury at 34 years old, who will turn 35 during the tournament, is in all likelihood at risk of missing out despite his immense experience.
With both De Groot and Crusaders teammate George Bower with far less tread of the tires established in the current squad, Moody will be up against it to beat out the younger bulls as one of the loosehead selections.
Aidan Ross, who started both matches for the All Blacks XV side, could push for selection as well, while Ofa Tu’ungafasi’s versatility on both sides could see him ranked higher than Moody.
On the other side of the scrum, Nepo Laulala has a lot to do to win back favour after falling well back in the pecking order after this year’s Ireland series.
It was Laulala who looked a step behind at Twickenham coming off the bench, struggling to get around the park in the late game collapse. His defensive effort was not up to scratch with an inability to set early and cover space well, which led to the line break to Marcus Smith that ended with Beauden Barrett getting yellow carded.
An All Black debutant this year, Fletcher Newell, showed he is capable of much more in the impact role coming off the bench and the All Blacks coaches may have recognised the necessity for mobility and energy in the tight five.
The rise of Taukei’aho as the All Blacks starting hooker immediately puts one of the experienced pair of Codie Taylor and Dane Coles at risk of missing out.
Based on Taylor getting the majority of bench selections in the No 16 jersey, Coles will be up against it to make the World Cup at 36 years old months shy of 37, even as the third hooker.
Asafo Aumua, who fell out of favour in 2022, is the wildcard who can bring another powerful ball carrying option behind Taukei’aho should his Super Rugby form with the Hurricanes impress.
Three of the four locks are set in stone at this stage with Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick and Scott Barrett certainties to be picked. The man at risk of missing out is Blues lock Patrick Tuipulotu, who took a stint in Japan during 2022.
The former Blues captain when in top form would be a valuable asset for the All Blacks but the question remains whether the selectors want cover at blindside and lock, in which case Tupou Vaa’i could slot in over him as the fourth lock picked.
In 2019 there were five loose forwards selected and this will likely stay the same. Sam Cane and Dalton Papali’i are definite selections as the two opensides, while Ardie Savea is a lock at No 8.
The trio of Shannon Frizell, Akira Ioane, and Hoskins Sotutu will fight off for two remaining selections but if locks Scott Barrett and Tupou Vaa’i are picked that can cover No 6, it could put pressure on Frizell and Ioane to both be selected.
On form, Sotutu would miss out right now but that would leave just one No 8 in the squad in Savea, relying on Ioane as cover.
Luke Jacobson, who has been used as a No 8 by the All Blacks, seems out of the picture at this stage despite being picked to attend the last World Cup and fan favourite Ethan Blackadder is going to find it hard to break back in as an openside with the form that Papali’i is in.
Just who the three halfbacks picked will be depends on how Folau Fakatava and TJ Perenara return to form following ACL injury.
Aaron Smith is a certainty having received most of the starts at No 9 in this World Cup cycle, while if fit Fakatava will also be picked.
Finlay Christie’s form when given the chance was not convincing in 2022, with a disappointing performance against Japan.
When Perenara returned to the side against Scotland, he performed well and added to his case of re-selection as the third No 9, but like Fakatava is going to spend a large portion of 2023 on the sidelines.
If Perenara and Fakatava are healthy in time they just might push Christie out of contention.
The two first fives are locked in already in Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo’unga. The only question is whether Damian McKenzie can return to form to push Stephen Perofeta out as the 10/15 cover in the squad.
In 2019 just four midfielders were picked and this is where the extra squad selection could be used. Jordie Barrett who likely will be picked as a fullback, is also a legitimate midfield option now.
If all healthy, Rieko Ioane, David Havili, Anton Lienert-Brown, Quinn Tupaea would be the four midfielders picked right now, with Jack Goodhue and Braydon Ennor missing out.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck would be the fifth midfielder picked if he can show the versatility in 2023 to play on the right wing, covering two positions adequately. That would give him the edge over Goodhue and Ennor.
The outside backs are also locked in already with Jordie Barrett, Caleb Clarke, Will Jordan, Sevu Reece, Stephen Perofeta the likely five to be picked unless McKenzie can deplace Perofeta as the first-five/fullback cover.
The 2023 Rugby World Cup will see the squad sizes expand from 31 players to 33, allowing for two more players than when the last tournament in Japan was played.
In this early All Blacks squad those extra two selections are used at prop and in the midfield.
Early All Blacks 2023 Rugby World Cup squad:
Props: Ethan de Groot (LH), George Bower (LH), Tyrel Lomax (TH), Ofa Tu’ungafasi (LH/TH), Fletcher Newell (TH), Angus Ta’avao (TH)
Outside looking in: Joe Moody (LH), Aidan Ross (LH), Nepo Laulala (TH),
Potential bolters: Ollie Norris (LH), Tamiati Williams (TH)
Hookers: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Codie Taylor, Asafo Aumua
Outside looking in: Dane Coles
Bolter: George Bell
Locks: Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett, Tupou Vaa’i
Outside looking in: Patrick Tuipulotu, Josh Lord
Bolter: Taine Plumtree
Loose Forwards: Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Dalton Papali’i, Akira Ioane, Shannon Frizell
Outside looking in: Hoskins Sotutu, Luke Jacobson, Ethan Blackadder
Bolter: Anton Segner
Halfbacks: Aaron Smith, Folau Fakatava, TJ Perenara
Outside looking in: Finlay Christie, Brad Weber
Bolter: Cortez Ratima
First fives: Beauden Barrett, Richie Mo’unga
Outside looking in: Damian McKenzie, Josh Ioane
Bolter: Ruben Love
Midfielders: Rieko Ioane, David Havili, Anton Lienert-Brown, Quinn Tupaea, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
Outside looking in: Jack Goodhue, Braydon Ennor
Bolter: Thomas Umaga-Jensen
Outside backs: Jordie Barrett, Caleb Clarke, Will Jordan, Sevu Reece, Stephen Perofeta
Outside looking in: Leicester Fainga’anuku, Mark Telea
Bolter: Zarn Sullivan
Comments on RugbyPass
🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
27 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
27 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
27 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
27 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
27 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to comments