1
Super Rugby schedule strength: Blues have had the weakest run so far
Don’t let the Super Rugby Pacific standings mislead you; only half of this race has been run and the home stretch looks significantly different for most teams, meaning all seedings are far from safe.
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In this exercise, we look at which teams have had the toughest and easiest schedules to date, calculated by taking the win percentage of each team’s respective opponents and finding the average. We then look at which teams have the most and least favourable schedules remaining in the season, using the same method, to provide a clearer picture of what the seedings might look like when it comes to locking in quarter-final matchups.
Below you’ll find the rankings of teams’ strength of schedule, ordered from least to most difficult, with the average win percentage of their respective opposition in brackets.
Schedule strength so far
12. Blues (35.4% opposition win rate)
11. Brumbies (38.1)
10. Chiefs (38.7)
9. Fijian Drua (40.7)
8. Hurricanes (42.5)
7. Rebels (47.7)
6. Waratahs (52.7)
5. Moana Pasifika (55.4)
4. Reds (56.8)
3. Highlanders (63.8)
2. Crusaders (64)
1. Western Force (64)
The Blues have had the weakest schedule of all teams during the opening half of the season, with an average opponent win percentage of just 35.4. The team currently holds the top place on the Super Rugby Pacific ladder, having played one more game than the unbeaten Hurricanes, so they’ve certainly made the most of the cards they’ve been dealt.
The Reds have had the fourth most trying schedule to date while occupying sixth place on the Super Rugby Pacific table, making them one of the most impressive performers from the first half of the season. As you’ll see below, when we analyse the remaining schedule, the Reds are in a very promising place indeed to move even further up the table.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have had the eighth most challenging schedule, proving their unbeaten run hasn’t been without challenges, but life certainly isn’t going to get any easier as the season progresses.
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Two spots above the Hurricanes with the sixth most difficult schedule to date is the Waratahs. Boasting just one win in the season so far, the Sydneysiders will be disappointed they haven’t made the most of their opportunities thus far. The Waratahs are however the only team who face an even season split in their schedule strength, so as you’ll see below, any improvements in record the team make on the home stretch will be genuine.
The Crusaders and Western Force, owning the bottom two places on the Super Rugby Pacific table, have each faced the toughest schedules so far and will gladly accept the more competitive slate of fixtures heading their way in the coming weeks.
However, not far at all behind those two with an average opponent win rate of 63.6 per cent is the Highlanders. The Southerners have claimed two wins already in the season and sit in eighth place. With the worst behind them, expect the Highlanders to creep further up the standings in the second half of the season.
Schedule strength remaining
12. Reds (36.2% opposition win rate)
11. Western Force (44.5)
10. Crusaders (45.7)
9. Moana Pasifika (46.7)
8. Brumbies (47)
7. Highlanders (49.1)
6. Waratahs (52)
5. Fijian Drua (52.4)
4. Hurricanes (53.7)
3. Rebels (54.7)
2. Chiefs (56.8)
1. Blues (58.8)
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Yes, the Reds have struck gold with their 2024 season schedule, facing comfortably the easiest remaining schedule. The Queensland team have only one remaining game against a team currently sitting above them on the table.
Western Force and Crusaders fans rejoice, brighter days are coming and while no wins are guaranteed, there’s cause for more confidence as the teams face some relatively weaker opposition.
The Brumbies sitting with the fifth easiest remaining schedule projects to leave the Australian heavyweights right at the top of the Super Rugby Pacific table again this year, as the team already sit third in the competition standings with just one loss. That being said, their next two encounters are against the Blues and Hurricanes, the only two sides above them on the ladder. So, there’s potential for things to get a little worse before they get better.
The universe is balanced; having enjoyed the easiest schedule in the first half of the season, the Blues now face the hardest remaining schedule with only two games against teams with under a 50 per cent win rate.
The Super Rugby Pacific table could look very different indeed once quarter-final time rolls around.
Super Rugby Pacific
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Blues
7
6
1
0
27
2
Hurricanes
6
6
0
0
27
3
Brumbies
7
6
1
0
27
4
Chiefs
7
5
2
0
23
5
Rebels
7
4
3
0
19
6
Reds
6
3
3
0
16
7
Fijian Drua
7
3
4
0
13
8
Highlanders
6
2
4
0
11
9
Moana Pasifika
7
2
5
0
9
10
Waratahs
7
1
6
0
8
11
Crusaders
6
1
5
0
6
12
Force
7
1
6
0
5
Comments on RugbyPass
SACK HIM !
1 Go to commentsSafas are so triggered by Ireland. 3 consecutive losses, incl RWC. 8 losses out of last 12 Tests. Always excuses, of course, with Bok fans. Now Rassie with his “88%” nonsense, the Claytons Excuse is an embarrassment to Bok teams of the past when every test mattered. Their fickle mojo will be on edge for the Ireland tour. Have the referees been appointed yet ? They will need security. Have WR laid out strict guidelines for TMO’s and replays on the stadium screens ? Will the constant stoppages from Bok forwards for cramps and bootlaces be tolerated ? We’re not talking a dominant Springbok team here, they won the LOTTO Cup and they know it whether they admit it or not. The Disney doco has their fans positively fermenting internally, its going to be a nasty hangover if they get beaten on home soil. What will the excuses be then……
84 Go to commentsGreat role model.
2 Go to commentsOne significant tell, not a single Waratahs player stopped to whinge to the ref about Finau’s tackle. They got on with playing the game. Great tackle.
8 Go to commentsWouldn’t be a bad move if Ireland pulled into SA with a young side. Particularly in Pretoria. Invaluable experience getting thumped in the bosveld.
84 Go to commentsIreland. The Princess Diana of Rugby. I never cheered so much for a team as i did for the All Blacks in that QF.
84 Go to commentsWill be great to see the Leinster first XV back in action again after their cotton wool time…
1 Go to commentsLooked up Grant Constable on google and reply was doppelgänger for Ben Smith
84 Go to commentsIt is so good that we now all get excited and debate who is best and emotionally get involved. We all back our teams which is great. Up until about 15-20 years ago, NZ was basically on its own, and then Saffa, Aussie and sometimes French and English were there. We now have at least 5-6 really top sides and another 4 who keep improving. This is so healthy. So we should not resort to rubbish comments and unhealthy debate, but rather all be chuffed that the product we watch is not competitive, exciting and often uncertain. It would be so good if World Rugger could find a way to align the rules to professional players as well as spectators. Live rugby games are SO boring as there is SO much down time as we wait for refs and TMOs and whoever else to look at every small event going back endless phases with the hope of eventually find a minute infringement to then decide cancel what was a wonderful try. This is the ultimate cork back in the bottle moment and feels like every balloon is always being popped. Come on- we must be better with the rules.
84 Go to comments“upon leaving said establishment I tripped over a stool knocking some bottles into the air and as I fell I accidently dislodged a police officer’s teaser who was passing by on an unrelated matter there by landing on said taser which caused it to discharge 50,000 watts into me. Out of shock I shouted Ireland are going to win the world cup. Upon waking up I apologised for the distress caused by my Ireland comment. The matter is closed. If you wish to pursue this matter may I remind you what I told Wayne Barnes when he sent me off. I AM A BIG ASS MAN”. Or was it “I AM A BIG ASS, MAN” or was it “I AM A BIG ASSMAN”?
2 Go to commentsThe only championship the Boks hold are: Great value for the incompetence of referees during the RWC Moaning endlessly and champions of spewing utterly ignorant 💩 at all times. Displaying the dangers of a third world education End of.
84 Go to commentsSouth Africa and Rassie do a phenomenal job of treating the 4 years in between World Cups as nothing more than a training exercise to build squad depth. The Six Nations money that keeps Irish rugby afloat is unfortunately too important to allow the same approach, and basic population size means we'll never get close to matching the depth of South Africa, England and France. That being said, Irish rugby is in a relatively good place and slowly improving inch by inch. If the other three provinces can pull the finger out and actually develop some players it'd be even better.
84 Go to commentsGood on Clarke for taking on the criticism and addressing his deficiencies, principally his laziness.
2 Go to comments“It is the people’s favourite against the actual favourite. It is the people’s champions against the actual champions. I’m joking, but it’s going to be a fantastic series.” Why did Darcy make that joke knowing it would be used as click bait? Why did RP headline it as a serious comment? Anyway, the tired comment isn’t very astute. SA players may have played more games etc. Darcy over estimated as a pundit.
84 Go to commentsNot sure Frisch will ever make the French team with Depoortère and Costes waiting in the wings to take over from Danty and Fickou.
1 Go to commentsThe Irish are tired and the Boks are old. The test series won't confirm who is best in the world, it will confirm which team needs to pursue the task of rebuilding with the most urgency.
84 Go to commentsGrant, the first time I have seen an article written by you. Maybe I have missed your previous stuff. These days all professional players effectively play a common season so all top players are equally tired, or rested. That is the job of the coaching ticket to build squad depth and juggle resources so players are ‘ fresh’ when the big games come. Possibly Ireland are less inclined to juggle squad compared to Rassie, who is prepared to take the risk to rest players as well as build depth throughout the year so come WC he has a full squad, experienced and rested enough to win 7 games. After all, to win WC you need to get through the tournament and then win the final big 3 games. Ireland should try and build a bit so come final 3 they are ready. So far only played final 1(QF). I am so looking forward to the Irish tour. Hopefully Rassie has enough time to align his guys, as he draws them from across the globe, and not from 2 sides locally( eg Leinster, Munster). No excuses, going to be exciting.
84 Go to commentsIn football, teams get fined and sometimes docked points for deliberately fielding weakened teams yet Leinster can pretty much do as they please with no comebacks. Could it be because Ireland run the URC? Could it be that Ireland run the ERC? Whichever it is, it stinks!!
6 Go to commentsIreland are only the People’s Champions in Irish eyes. The rest of the world do not care for them very much because of attitudes of people like Gordon, Ferris, Best, Jackman…I could go on!!
84 Go to commentsNot sure how Karl Dickson can ever ref a Quins game, he played for the club for 8 years as understudy to Care and is still close friends with half the team
3 Go to comments