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Strength of the schedule: Major League Rugby's Western Conference
Major League Rugby released their 2021 season schedule on Tuesday, with the competition set to return on March 20th.
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All fans will be counting down the days until a try is scored, a ball is kicked, or a whistle is blown in MLR, after this year’s season was cancelled after five-rounds due to the outbreak of COVID-19.
While that makes determining a teams draw relatively difficult, results from the 2019 season have been included (where possible) for a more thorough look into the strength of each teams schedule.
But with New England, Atlanta and Washington DC all having made their debuts in 2020, so having only played five competitive matches, their winning percentages had to be included simply going off what we’ve seen. Also, both LA Giltinis and Dallas Jackals couldn’t be considered.
Teams were ranked from one to 11 going off winning percentage. From their 16 matches, each team with given points depending on where their opponents ranked, so as an example, teams who are playing the Legion were given one point for that week.
All teams facing either Dallas or LA were given zero for those weeks.
Regular season winning percentage since 2019
1. San Diego Legion: 80.95%
2. Old Glory DC: 80%*
3. Toronto Arrows: 71.43%
4. Rugby United New York: 66.67%
=5. Seattle Seawolves + NOLA Gold: 57.14%
7. Rugby ATL: 40%*
8. Houston SaberCats: 33.33%
9. New England Free Jacks: 20%*
10. Utah Warriors: 19.04%
11. Austin Gilgronis: 4.76%
*MLR debut in 2020
Professional rugby is one step closer to returning to America’s shores with @usmlr revealing their schedule for the 2021 season
Finn Morton ??? picks 5 of the best fixtures #MLR2021 https://t.co/GsOxfi5fc4
ADVERTISEMENT— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) December 10, 2020
But seeing that LA and Dallas can’t play themselves, while every other Western Conference side would face both sides twice, the average rating of a team’s schedule had to be the determining factor. To do that, the ranking score was divided up by 12 (excludes matches against both LA and Dallas), and 14 for the expansion sides (excludes the two matches against each other).
While there have been ins and outs for all teams and we’ll get to that as the season gets closer, this is just a starting point of how each team sits in the Western Conference according to past form.
San Diego Legion
Schedule: 1st – Easiest
Regular season winning percentage: 80.95%
Average opponent ranking: 7.67 / 92 ranking points
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Supported by arguably the easiest schedule in the Western Conference, 2021 might just be the year that San Diego claim an elusive Major League Rugby title. The Legion made the semis in MLR’s inaugural season, were runners up last year, and were atop of the standings when their most recent campaign was cut short after five rounds.
But they’ve been handed a favourable draw heading into next season, which will seem them play half of their away matches against the four sides with the worst winning percentages since 2019 (Houston, Austin, Utah and New England).
They’re also set for a potentially crucial match against rivals Seattle in week 15, less than a month before the playoffs. Both teams are expected to contest for the number one seed, so this one could be for all the chocolates.
At home, they’ll have a really tough and meaningful clash against Toronto in week two, pitting the top two sides from the 2020 standings against each other. Other than that though, it should be relatively smooth sailing for the Legion, if past form is anything to go off.
LA Giltinis
Schedule: 2nd
Regular season winning percentage: n/a
Average opponent ranking: 6.79 / 95 ranking points
After a quiet few months since they were officially revealed by the league as an expansion side in late-May, the Giltinis have begun to unveil an exciting roster. Coached by Darren Coleman, the list includes former Wallabies Dave Dennis and Billy Meakes, Canadian winger DTH van der Merwe, and exciting Australian talent in Mahe Vailanu.
The LA #Giltinis have powered up their backline in 2021 with the signing of seasoned #SuperRugby centre, Billy Meakes.
MEDIA: https://t.co/I9ak1pLYCX@bmeakes @USMLR #MLR2021 pic.twitter.com/nuThkSuMVK
— LA Giltinis (@Giltinis) December 10, 2020
But looking at their schedule, there’s no reason the Giltinis can’t make the playoffs in their inaugural campaign.
They have a blockbuster to open both their season and history in MLR, playing at home against fellow expansion side, Dallas Jackals. That’s the start of back-to-back home matches, with their second coming against Austin.
While they do have some tough home matches, it’s largely manageable considering the talent that they’ve got coming in.
But away matches can really make or break a playoff contender yet in many ways, it’s an easier run than what they have at home. While they’ve got to play San Diego away, the others are matches that they’re capable of winning (Utah, Houston, New England, Austin, Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle).
Cross Conference matches against New York, New England, New Orleans and Atlanta should be a great indicator of where they sit in the playoff race.
With arguably the second easiest run of any team in the Western Conference, the Giltinis should be a team to keep an eye out for throughout the 2021 season.
Houston SaberCats
Schedule: 3rd
Regular season winning percentage: 33.33%
Average opponent ranking: 6.33 / 76 ranking points
Houston only won one match this year, but will be disappointed not to have made it two after blowing a 10-point half-time lead against rivals Austin. But the SaberCats have an opportunity to improve on that season if they can make the most of a good schedule.
Schedule drop is here! See you all on March 20 at AVEVA Stadium! Season tickets on sale now #mlr2021 #RugbyPlus #tearitup pic.twitter.com/Bwo5nAfOad
— Houston SaberCats (@Hou_Sabercats) December 8, 2020
They will play all three teams who currently have a worse percentage than them (since 2019) at home, which includes Eastern Conference side New England who’ve only played five MLR matches in their history. But on top of that, they are set to face Seattle, San Diego and Rugby United, as well as both expansion sides in LA and Dallas at the Aveva Stadium.
If they can win most of those matches, then winning away matches against Austin and Utah is a must for the SaberCats. They’ll also play away matches to DC and Atlanta, but avoid Toronto all together.
They are set to face Seattle and the Legion away from home in the space of three weeks, so making home matches count is a must if they want to make the playoffs.
A final round bye could be an issue for the SaberCats though, if they were to make the playoffs. How that would affect momentum will be an interesting talking point as the season nears the business end, but only if they’re looking like a title contender.
Dallas Jackals
Schedule: 4th
Regular season winning percentage: n/a
Average opponent ranking: 6.21 / 87 ranking points
As one of two expansion sides joining MLR for the 2021 season, there’s plenty of intrigue about what Dallas can add to the competition on the field. They had the first pick in the inaugural MLR Collegiate Draft, selecting Life University utility back Conner Mooneyham, as well as three other players.
IT’S HERE ?#MLR2021 See you ? pic.twitter.com/RfVxP07AWc
— Dallas Jackals (@DallasJackals) December 8, 2020
As a team who have plenty of potential, they’ll have a genuine opportunity to turn some heads next year after being handed a mixed schedule.
Other than matches against Austin, Houston and Utah, the Jackals are set to face some of the best sides in the competition at home. They’ll host NOLA, DC, the Seawolves and Legion – as well as the Giltinis. The match against San Diego will be especially tough, seeing that they’re playing the Arrows in Toronto less than a week before.
Seattle Seawolves
Schedule: 5th
Regular season winning percentage: 57.14%
Average opponent ranking: 6.17 / 74 ranking points
It’s fair to say that fans were left disappointed with the performances from the Seawolves in 2020, who were 10th on the standings when the season was cancelled, having won just one from five. But as the only franchise to have won an MLR title, they’ll have to do it the hard way as they look to return to former glory.
Seattle face Austin first up, a team who have won just one from 21 regular season matches played since the beginning of last year’s campaign. But that’s the start of five straight matches on the road, which includes back-to-back matches against Eastern Conference contenders NOLA and Rugby United.
Following the #MLR2021 schedule release, MLR held a live Media Q&A to discuss Season 4!https://t.co/QCNr78CV27
Hosted by @DaniWex w/ @GeorgeKillebrew, @DallasJackals Assistant GM & Assistant Coach @ElaineVassie, @TorontoArrows Lucas Rumball, & @utwarriorsrugby Lance Williams.
— Major League Rugby (@usmlr) December 9, 2020
In weeks nine and 10, the Seawolves have back-to-back matches against San Diego and Toronto, which is about as tough as it gets in MLR. But to make it even tougher for Seattle, they’ll then face Old Glory DC after a bye, playing three of the better sides in the competition across 22 days.
Utah Warriors
Schedule: 6th
Regular season winning percentage: 19.04%
Average opponent ranking: 5.75 / 69 ranking points
After winning just two matches from 16 played in 2019, Utah appeared to be taking some promising steps forward as they matched that in just five games this year.
But their opening few weeks of the season will be a great test for the Warriors, as they look to prove whether they can compete with some of the historically better sides. Up first is an away match to San Diego, before also playing New Glory DC away in round three. In week 14, they’re also set to make the trip to Toronto.
As for their home matches, playing the likes of San Diego, New Orleans and Seattle is going to be tough – they’re going to have to earn each win.
Austin Gilgronis
Schedule: 7th – Toughest
Regular season winning percentage: 4.76%
Average opponent ranking: 5.33 / 64 ranking points
Austin are very much up against it when it comes to qualifying for the playoffs, having been handed the toughest draw in the Conference. The Gilgronis won one from five in 2020, which was their fourth win in the history of the competition.
Next year, they’ll start their season with four home games from their first six, with their first two away fixtures coming against new-comers LA and Dallas.
But two matches against San Diego and Seattle across the season, and playing both Eastern Conference powerhouses Toronto and DC once, will make things especially tough.
Notably as well, they’ll face San Diego away in week 14 on a Saturday, before having to back that up against 2019 semi-finalists Rugby United on the following Thursday.
Major League Rugby is back 3.20.21!
? #MLR2021 kicks off March 20 with 13 teams competing in 18 weeks of regular season action, followed by two weeks of the MLR Championship Series. Season 4 concludes with the MLR Championship Final on Sunday, August 1 on @CBSSportsNet. pic.twitter.com/Aqx4jX0ll5
— Major League Rugby (@usmlr) September 22, 2020
Comments on RugbyPass
Why cant I watch Rugby games please?
1 Go to commentsBeautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
4 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to comments