Rugby World Cup squad analysis: Esportif Intelligence vs RugbyPass Index
The 2019 World Cup is now just days away from starting in Japan. All squads have been named and confirmed, and excitement levels are swiftly rising all across the globe.
New Zealand are reigning champions and the only side to have lifted the trophy three times, and although the All Blacks are still favourites to celebrate for the fourth time next month, the field is wide open with South Africa, England, Ireland and Wales having all put down markers of late.
Esportif, one of the world’s leading player representation companies, have published their analysis of the 31-man squads through their intelligence division and there are some interesting takeaways from their forensic look at each of the 20 sides participating in the tournament.
They have produced a ‘data score’ for each team based on number of caps, players in prime age range, number of players at the same club and number of total clubs drawn from. They also factor in head coach experience, recent form and historical World Cup win percentage.
They further include ‘squad value’ in the calculation, which is based on an internally devised assessment of salary for each of the players in the squads. For players representing countries who may not be on full-time contracts, Esportif used a figure between US $20,000 and $30,000, unless other information was available.
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The data score has Samoa with the lowest mark of 60, with Namibia and Tonga (both 63), Russia (64), Canada and the USA (both 65) just ahead of them. South American side Uruguay, who have an incredibly challenging pool, lead the way as the ‘best of the rest’ with a mark of 66, before the ‘big three’ of tier two come in with Georgia (69) and Japan (70) both sitting outside of the tier one nations, although Fiji’s score of 73 sees them tie for tenth spot with Italy.
At ninth overall comes Argentina (74), with the Six Nations pair of France and Scotland both tied on a mark of 79. There is then a three-way tie between Australia, Wales and South Africa, all of whom score 85 on Esportif’s metric. It leaves England, Ireland and New Zealand as the top three and it is Eddie Jones’ side who come out on top with a score of 90, narrowly edging ahead of the All Blacks (89). Ireland finish up in third with a mark of 86.
Those top two teams are flipped when you compare Esportif’s rankings with the RugbyPass Index, with New Zealand (89) ahead of England (87), although Ireland (85) finish third in both. South Africa (83) and Wales (78) complete the top five, before Australia (73) come in at sixth. Although the RPI predicts a larger disparity between those last three teams than Esportif, both models have the same top six teams.
Away from the data score, we have rounded up some of the other interesting takeaways from Esportif’s analysis: Only Ireland, New Zealand, England and France have picked entirely domestic-based squads, with Ireland only selecting from four sides. In contrast, Tonga’s 31-man squad is drawn together from 27 different clubs, 25 of which are not in Tonga.
Russia have the oldest squad at the competition, with an average age of 29.3, while Uruguay’s is the youngest at an average age of 25.9. Interestingly, the South American minnows still also boast the fifth most caps of any team at the competition with 1,109.
In terms of tier one nations, Ireland have the oldest squad with an average age of 27.8, while France have the youngest with an average age of 26.5. The Wallabies have the most caps at the tournament with 1,423, while Samoa are the most inexperienced squad with just 424 caps. The least experienced tier one nation is France, with Les Bleus only accounting for 807 caps.
WATCH: England’s players will bank almost triple what is on offer to their All Blacks rivals if they win the World Cup
Comments on RugbyPass
verkeerde kant van die gereg lol
5 Go to commentsJust like John Plumtree at the Sharks he has had a poor start to this season’s coaching gig, but now it looks like he is starting to pull them back also having won 1 game in the first Eleven games they played. It obviously helps that 11 of his fifteen are Springbok players. But now they are starting to improve. No ways they can make it to the playoffs this year but they probably used this season as a way to figure out their game plan. One query I have and I think quite a few people have is: Are they playing better simply because of their international players are back or is it the team strategy led by Rob Penney that is starting to tick? Well I guess we wait and see. Also if it doesn't work out this season, it might be that Rob Penney is using this season as a way to organize himself for next season. Getting all his combinations sorted, his team strategies sorted and figuring out who is best is which position. Now I don't follow Super Rugby any more having now a full focus in the URC but I was surprised about the current Crusaders stats.
10 Go to commentsIf I’m a little bloke, who’s just had possession of the ball, I should expect to get cleaned up by Samipeni Finau if he’s opposite me and I do nothing to avoid him. FTFY You’ll need to rewrite the rest of your article now Hamish Bidwell. I’m not sorry for having missed reading this one. I find it hilarious it’s only the static aussie 10s, just waiting there, that are getting smashed. Move on your feet guys, haven’t you watched DMac and Mounga play for the last decade ffs. Chin up, at least your smiles should return when BB returns to SR next year and there’s more 10s to the fodder.
9 Go to commentsFinau is not leaving a lot of room for error that’s true, but he committed to 3 out of four tackles when the player had the ball so that’s all legal. (And incredibly entertaining)
9 Go to commentsHow does the size of the ‘bloke being hit’ factor into this? If you’re on the opposing team you are fair game. Is Finau the first person in history to target the first five? It seems like this is a great strategy to interrupt your opponents attack. As far as I’m aware, of the four excellent hits on Aussie first fives this year only one of them was ruled late. So if crying about legal tackles isn’t whingeing, then what is it?
9 Go to commentsThings I want to pay attention to this series. 1) Nothing against the other teams in 6 nations, but apart from Irelands loss to england, I dont feel they got tested, So I think this might be tight. 2) Rassie wants to build depth, and would rather do it before a world cup, but I am sure deep inside, he will be reminded that we have not beaten Ireland in years. 3) Will our new coaches plans be sound abd organised in time for the Ireland series? Remember our warm ups might only see our second or third string players available (When are we going to have one universal calander year?) 4) I see Ireland have moved on from Sexton, but what will Farrels plans be for SA? I am sure he will go for a full strength squad. 5) I think the test for the springboks will be the Durban game, it will be in winter, so not too hot for the Irish,no altitude, and it rains allot, might remind them of home. Loftus, if the springboks play the right game, I feel altitude like with most games before, can cause some challanges. 6) Off topic, but who is both Anxious and excited about what the Abs are coming with? A whole new coaching team and different style of play.
118 Go to commentsMost underrated player in world rugby.
2 Go to commentsHow many fans will travel to Qatar to watch these games ? because if they dont, it will be played in front of a few disinterested unknowledgeable Qataris and then just becomes media ‘content’. Thats what Test rugby will be reduced to.
1 Go to commentsSo as long as the playmaker still has the ball IN his hands, its OK. Otherwise the timing is wrong and he’s a liability. No grey line there. Thats the rule he is advocating ? Got it.
9 Go to commentsWrite them off at your peril
10 Go to commentsJust fantastic that the professional game is finally being taken to the Pacific islands. Not before time. It justifies the mere existence of Moana as a club, hopefully they can start to get some positive results too. Check out the sheer joy of the crowds in Fiji and the buzz that having a home team creates. Tonga always had (has ?) issues with their ground not complying with International rugby standards, which NZ always used as an excuse for many years not bringing the All Blacks over. Hopefully this match is the first of many. Would be great to see some tourism grow on the back of it. I once went to the Cook Islands Sevens in Rarotonga - tiny island nation but man did they turn it on. Tonga and Samoa will too given half a chance.
1 Go to commentsQuite right. Punish the time wasters. Its BS these time delays for non-injuries. The Boks have been using it for years now to slow down opposition and now its a scourge on the game. Put players like DeGroot on the sideline and restart play immediately. Watch how 5-6 min to fix your boots quickly becomes 1-2 minutes. Better still how about some personal professional management and you check the conditions/turf beforehand and get yourself better prepared. It might even help your team.
1 Go to commentsWhat drivel. Rugby as a contact sport should not be further diminished by crying over legal hard tackles. Take on the line? Be ready to take the hit. This is PC nonsense.
9 Go to commentsGregor Paul is going to be proved totally wrong. The Crusaders will get in the top 8 and are capable of winning this comp. The return of magnificent captain and player Scott Barrett on Friday was huge. There are a number of players returning and Ethan Blackadder showed huge progression in only his third game back. Christian Lio-Willie has added a new dimension , these two’s combination with Cullen Grace was fantastic. This builds depth when you have outstanding players like Tom Christie and Dom Gardiner also available. The tight five improved ten fold and this is with Tamaiti Williams and Codie Taylor being back.Others are set to return. Johnny McNicoll on his return home has been a revelation. Paul can dismiss Fridays win by the Crusaders as much as he likes and he will prove very popular in this country in doing so. But he will be proved wrong , Rob Penney and his coaching team will have the last laugh.
10 Go to commentsI haven’t seen or heard to many whinging about Finau quite the opposite. The TMO’s have reviewed each time and taken no action, so if they have now been alerted it’s not from people whinging The player comes flying out of the line and launches himself at the attacker so it is probably ruled as a committed tackle, but at what point does it move to tackling a player without the ball Time will tell
9 Go to commentsThis cracked media record of aligning success or failure on head coaches is remarkable. Using the crusaders past history as an example, a more sensible observation and analysis could be that the recent head coaches had inherited a extremely successful combination of players linked to their traditional historical support of the Canterbury people. That period ended this year when the new coach was introduced to virtually a new team. And in a year where other franchises have grown much stronger than their respective past, it was always an anticipated reality that the coach and his new crusader team were up against it. Therefore, I humbly believe that unlike some commentators present, I laud coach Penny and the team for their efforts to date and I am sure given another term and with Canterbury behind them they will be riding high once more. Strange all this coming from me who lives in Taupo and a one eyed chiefs supporter. Can't wait for all future chiefs and crusader games!
10 Go to commentsGrt bench player..keep him there..
3 Go to commentsA Springbok 2-0 win: haha told you we were champions now shut up An Irish 2-0 win: the referee was under orders from world rugby to cheat us but luckily we don’t care because this is part of Rassie’s grand world Cup plan.
118 Go to commentsI hope they didn’t pay Jones fee?
2 Go to commentsTo be fair, the teams he's had to put out are reminiscent of those available to Gatland during his horrible run at the Chiefs in late 2020. Anyway, he's only got a two year contract and Wellingtonian Tamati Ellison will be ready by then, as will a lot of talented youngsters (like the Chiefs Gatland blooded). The Crusaders are planning for the long term.
10 Go to comments