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Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
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The international break wreaked havoc on the psychic abilities of our guru Paul. Interference from incoming international premonitions meant he picked a below-par 5/8 correct results in Round 14. Fortunately he came back strongly after the break to pick a creditable 7/9 results last week, meaning his overall record is now 88/117 or 75%.
Blues vs Brumbies
This is not a match the Brumbies will be too keen on in a must-win situation, as the Blues have made something of a habit of derailing their playoff aspirations in recent years. The most notable was in 2012, when the Brumbies were one point away from clinching a playoff spot but got done by the 13th-placed Blues and missed out. The 2015 result didn’t do the Brumbies any favours either. Expect the visitors to go with what has worked for the all season – a grinding forward game – but I suspect the Blues can defend against that if they’re up to normal form. If invention is required it’s something of a step into the unknown and it could get tricky. Therefore I’m going to fly against what I think will be the betting agency predictions and go for the Blues, whose nothing-to-lose mentality might be just what the doctor didn’t order for Stephen Larkham and his troops.
Pick: Blues (12 and under)
Reds vs Chiefs
This match only matters to the Chiefs but it is one where they slip up from time to time, and they will have to avoid getting bogged down in a scrum battle that could end up in a penalty flurry against them – although Nick Bryant is less likely to buy into the ‘Reds Super-scrum’ mentality than a couple of the Aussie refs have. All else being equal, the Chiefs should win this game by a comfortable margin and stay hot on the Lions’ heels at the top of the ladder.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)
Lions vs Kings
Let’s not waste time here. The Lions will win this game, and win it by miles. It could actually get quite ugly. And the biggest bonus for the Lions is that in the early stages of the ritual trouncing, they will hand over the record for most points conceded from their 2010 team to their soon-to-be victims.
Pick: Lions (13 and over)
Crusaders vs Rebels
This should also be quite straightforward. The Crusaders are a better team than the Rebels and should win comfortably. They’ve had a couple of surprise reverses over the years but I fancy they didn’t take the Melbourne mob as seriously as they might have on those occasions; this time they aren’t in a position to be cruising.
Pick: Crusaders (13 and over)
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Waratahs vs Hurricanes
The best game of the round should be one of the best to watch as well. Both teams are eyeing up a playoff spot and given the wildcard situation, it could be the same one. If both teams try and play rugby this could be a cracking match and both can get on a hard-to-stop roll. I’m going to pick the Hurricanes to win though, mainly on the back of a very good performance against the Blues when they couldn’t afford to make many mistakes and didn’t. The Waratahs didn’t have to be that good at Tokyo, so it was hard to judge how well they actually played.
Pick: Hurricanes (12 and under)
Force vs Stormers
The Stormers need to take a couple of points from this game to lock up the moderate South Africa 1 conference. The Force have two games to go before they hit wherever rugby players hit mid-year. One team has motivation, one does not. And one has a pack that will monster the other. Which is why I think the Stormers should do this on the bit.
Pick: Stormers (13 and over)
Bulls vs Sunwolves
The Sunwolves are just playing out the season, and the Bulls will already know if they’re doing the same before kickoff. This could be pretty ordinary, but you have to fancy the Bulls although I have a suspicion they’ll make hard work of it.
Pick: Bulls (13 and over)
Sharks vs Cheetahs
The Sharks should win and, after getting pounded last weekend, will be in no mood to take it easy. The Cheetahs have a lot of issues with ball retention, which plays into the hands of a team like the Sharks, and they give opponents too many chances. The set piece can also come under a lot of pressure, so whoever is kicking for the Sharks had better get his practice in; they can’t afford another rough outing off the tee if they want to lock up that South African wildcard spot.
Pick: Sharks (13 and over)
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Jaguares vs Highlanders
The Highlanders, with their first-stringers back, should sort the Jaguares out without too many problems on a dry day, but more of that rain could be a threat. That said, the Highlanders can play long stretches without the ball and still do a lot of damage, but halving that handling error count wouldn’t go down badly with Jamie Joseph. Depending on what has gone on before a win could lock up a playoff spot for the Highlanders, which should be all the motivation they need.
Pick: Highlanders (13 and over)
Comments on RugbyPass
A long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates live or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is hear and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
5 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
2 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
5 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
5 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
2 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
2 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
2 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
24 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
3 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
28 Go to comments