Paul the Super Rugby Oracle’s Round 14 Tips: Highlanders, Again
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
Paul was on track for a perfect Round 13 until the last game of the weekend, where the Stormers let him and everyone else down by losing to the Bulls. 6/7 is another strong week, bringing his season tally to 76/100 – an even 76%. Here’s what the last round before the international break holds in store.
Hurricanes vs Highlanders
Once again the best game of the weekend looks likely to be the first one, a replay of the 2015 final. These two sides met back in Week 2 and the resulting game was a classic which was eventually decided by a single point. These matches are invariably close, and we can expect a quality game and lead roles to be taken by a number of strong All Black candidates. As for tipping, I’m going to take the visitors to prevail in a tight, entertaining and high-quality match.
Pick: Highlanders (12 and under)
Waratahs vs Chiefs
The Waratahs have a hold over the Chiefs at Sydney – the Chiefs have only ever won there twice – but that should change this weekend. We got a fair indication of where the teams are at last week: the Waratahs and Rebels are on about a par, and they lost by more or less equivalent margins to the Crusaders and Chiefs, who are also on par with each other. Therefore expect the Chiefs to be as superior to the Waratahs as the Crusaders were, home advantage notwithstanding. It will take a seismic form upheaval to deliver anything other than a comfortable win for the table-topping New Zealanders this week.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)
Kings vs Jaguares
Since somebody has to win I’m picking the Jaguares. Just please don’t make me watch it.
Pick: Jaguares (13 and over)
Blues vs Crusaders
This will be an interesting clash that should show just where both teams really stand. The Blues have completed a reasonable tour with two wins over teams they should have beaten and a big loss to one that is better than they are this season. The Crusaders have been cleaning up against South African and Australian opposition but they haven’t faced too many New Zealand sides recently. The last one they did meet was the Highlanders, and we all know what happened then. On paper one would expect the Crusaders to be comfortably better. The visitors’ pack should be the difference with its mob of All Blacks, but funny things happen occasionally (see 2013, 2014 et al). I’m going with the visitors but it might be a lot closer than most expect.
Pick: Crusaders (12 and under)
Brumbies vs Sunwolves
The Brumbies are the better side and they’ll be quite happy to maul the Sunwolves to bits. They don’t offer much on attack but they do offer a solid defence, and they have an open invitation to go back to the top of the Australian conference this weekend. Canberra can be an inhospitable place to visit, and the home side should win this one comfortably.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)
Stormers vs Cheetahs
The Stormers have the wood on the Cheetahs in matches at Cape Town (the Cheetahs haven’t won there since 2006) and that’s not going to change this week. Okay, the Stormers screwed up big time at Pretoria last weekend, when they could have closed out the South Africa 1 conference, and I’m guessing they will vent their frustrations on the Cheetahs. The Stormers will win this one up front and then they’ll probably add a few tries late in the piece.
Pick: Stormers (13 and over)
Bulls vs Lions
Hands up those who thought this would be a battle of conference leaders? I expected the Lions to be on top of their group by now but not the Bulls, who I had written off as average. Their impressive forward strength is normally enough to get them home, but I doubt that will be the case this week. The Lions are innovative, quick, clever and reluctant to give the ball up; no team wins the possession stat more often, none has to make as few tackles and none wins as many games as a direct result of time with the ball in hand. The big thing in the Bulls favour is home field as they haven’t lost at Loftus this year; the big thing in the Lions favour is that they’re the best team in South Africa at the moment. I’m picking the best team in South Africa will win this game and skip well clear in the South Africa 2 race, as well as the overall South African conference.
Pick: Lions (12 and under)
Rebels vs Force
The Rebels started the season in flattering form, only to be brought back to Earth with a thump when they ran into the serious contenders. Any playoff challenge is all but dead now and they’ll finish the season about where they should be, as a lower-mid table team. The Force will also finish about where they should, down near the bottom. They might do better if they put some imagination into their attack and if Dane Haylett-Petty stops booting the ball away – he must have enough kick metres to get from Perth to Mars and back, but few of those kicks do much except give the ball back to the opposition and generally in uncontested fashion. The Rebels will do what they’ve done all season and rely on a decent loose trio to do a lot of the damage, and then the Rebels will win comfortably.
Pick: Rebels (13 and over)
Comments on RugbyPass
Wasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
3 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
3 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
3 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
30 Go to comments