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'It's not over until it's over': Wallabies to don red in hope of Portugal upset

Portugal sing the national anthem. Photo by Julian Finney - World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images
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Before the World Cup in France got underway, rugby fans were licking their lips at the prospect of polarising coach Eddie Jones lining up for a quarter-final clash against his former team England.

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Another prospect loomed, with the Jones-coached Wallabies squaring off in the final eight against former Australia coach Michael Cheika, who now oversees Argentina.

While Australia are still preparing to take on Pool D winners England in Marseille on Sunday, October 15 (Monday AEDT), the sad reality is Fiji are heavily favoured to finish runner-up in Pool C and send the Wallabies packing.

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The Australians are in limbo this week; their slim hopes hanging on minnows Portugal denying Fiji a single competition point in their final pool clash next Monday (AEDT).

But if a miracle happens, the Wallabies need to be ready.

“We will have three days to freshen up and then we come back in to prepare for a quarter-final,” said assistant coach Dan Palmer.

“It’s out of our hands now but that’s all we can do. We’ll come back in and train hard.”

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Asked if the preparations would be England-specific, Palmer said they would be.

After weeks of intense training, squirrelled away at a small resort outside Saint-Etienne, the players let their hair down for a night following the 34-14 win over Portugal that kept their Cup campaign alive.

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They will get back into action on Thursday and then pray for the Portuguese to cause a boilover against Fiji, who scraped to a win over Georgia in their last outing.

Wallabies No.8 Rob Valetini said he would be ready to root for the men in red.

“I’ve actually swapped jerseys, so I’ll probably be wearing that,” Valetini said.

“I reckon they can beat Fiji. They’re quite a skilful team and on their day they can beat anyone. They’d have to believe that they can do it.”

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Lock Richie Arnold said he would be also cheering for Os Lobos, who proved a handful in attack against Australia, scoring two tries and having two further efforts disallowed.

“We’ll have a couple of days off and the group will go away and have a bit of down-time, refresh and come back in and train Thursday, Friday, Saturday for potentially a quarter-final,” Arnold said.

“There are results that need to go our way. I will be wearing a Portugal shirt that’s for sure next Sunday.

“Portugal have a lot of fight. They have a good attacking team. It’s not over until it’s over. We still have a chance there mathematically.”

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TL 1 hour ago
Joe Schmidt bows out on a high - but can the Wallabies escape 'the twilight zone'?

It’s hard to see how any coach could have done much better and that coaches can only shift the dial so much in Australia, we’ve had some of the best in the world and the trajectory has been the same. The win/loss record is obviously an important metric, but it is only one metric, and not necessarily the best to assess a team that is really still in a building phase (2024 was recovery!). You could look at something like average losing margin, and the trajectory there is much better, with the 2025/2026 results close to half the losing margin in 2024 and during Eddie’s reign (roughly 10, compared to closer to 20). Much has been made of the so called merry-go-round at 10 (really sick of that phrase but here I am using it), but losing Noah, Lygnah and Dono between Fiji and SA games in 2025, and Carter then Dono in 2026 had nothing to do with Joe. He consistently backed his first choices and backed youth at 10 when he could. The injuries led to a massive increase in uncertainty around whether to risk players who weren’t ready or back experience but lose the future benefit. In that situation I think we need to permit our coaches a greater degree of experimentation and error. Much has been made of the LSL situation, but what about how Joe’s selections at lock have led to some real depth of capability there, with players that weren’t as conspicuously impressive (e.g. Williams, Canham). Joe has made his mistakes, but he righted the trend that was heading sharply down, and I suspect that as with what he left in Ireland and as with Stuart Lancaster your old mate, the true test of his time will be what happens in the wake.

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