How do the Springboks cope without arguably their most important player?
It’s the news every South African rugby fan was dreading. Rumours had already started circulating late on Wednesday night. But surely they couldn’t be true. Malcolm Marx injured? Something in the subcortex wouldn’t allow this to be computed. Rugby players go for scans all the time. It’s just a precaution. He’ll be fine.
Except, he isn’t fine. And now the defending world champions must continue their campaign without arguably their most important player. “Marx ruled out of the World Cup,” came the sobering email at 09:05 this morning. A “long-term knee injury,” it said. Apparently he went down in contact in training.
What exactly does this blow mean for South Africa? For starters, it puts into sharp focus the decision to take only two bonafide hookers to France. This looks especially foolhardy given the inclusion of four scrum-halves among the 33.
Deon Fourie – who has been named as the reserve hooker for the game against Romania on Sunday – has some experience in the middle of the front row, and Marco van Staden has been practicing his line-out throws in training. But this is akin to a Porsche dealership loaning you a Toyota Corolla after you’ve pranged your 911 Turbo.
The stats reveal that Marx is so much more than someone who scrums and throws the ball to tall jumpers. Of all the hookers who have played more than 750 minutes since 2020, no one else has won more jackal turnovers per game – 1.3 – or turnovers of any sort per game – 1.5 – than Marx.
He gets over the gainline with 61% of his carries and averages nine per game. He makes almost 10 tackles per match with an average above 90%. His efficiency at defensive rucks is an impressive 27% and he makes a whopping 20.8 metres per game with ball in hand.
South Africa have lost a player who fulfils so many roles that it doesn’t really matter what number he’s wearing on his back. He’s a front rower, a back rower and, at times, even a rampaging inside centre when the game opens up and he finds himself in the backline.
Bongi Mbonambi is an able deputy. He is perhaps the most improved Springbok over the last four years. That is not damning with faint praise. He is a World Cup winner and has a British & Lions Series winner’s medal so his resume can’t be disputed. Still, he has taken his game to a level that few could have predicted. He has been rewarded with a leadership role and will captain the Springboks this weekend.
And yet, he is no Marx. Apart from scrum success percentage and the number of penalties he concedes per 80 minutes, there isn’t a metric where he betters Marx. How could he? Marx is 189cm tall and weighs 115kg. Mbonambi is 175cm tall and weighs 108kg. It’s a cliche to say it, but with everything else being equal, the larger man almost always comes out on top on the rugby field.
What to do now? A replacement will almost certainly be called upon. Joseph Dweba is the likely next cab off the rank. He’s a solid scrummager, a tenacious ball carrier and aggressive in the tackle. But he’s a few rungs short of the incumbents. What’s more, his line-out accuracy is a major concern and if Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus adhere to their proven Bomb Squad tactic, whoever steps up as the hooker off the bench will have to maintain the standard set by Mbonambi. Would any South African fan place their faith in Dweba hitting a jumper at the back with a minute to go and a game on the line? Not likely.
Less than a year ago, Erasmus effectively cut Dweba from his plans. “He had opportunities during the [2022] Rugby Championship,” the Springboks’ director of rugby said. The 172cm, 100kg Stormers hooker returned for a couple of cameos – 19 minutes against Australia in July this year, 27 minutes in the World Cup warm-up against Argentina in August – but he failed to impress. There’s a reason Erasmus and Nienaber opted for two genuine hookers. If they believed they had a third worthy of his place in the group they would have selected him.
This is of course part of a wider malaise that has curtailed South Africa’s title defence. Four years ago Marx was the team’s most influential hooker. Handre Pollard was the undisputed leader of the backline and perhaps the country’s most complete fly-half of all-time. Lood de Jager was the line-out general and Lukhanyo Am at outside centre was in the form of his life and making a claim to being the best player on the planet.
Marx, though, is the biggest loss of all. Manie Libbok might not have the same radar off the tee as Pollard but his ceiling with ball in hand is potentially higher. Jesse Kriel doesn’t have the same touch as Am but his defensive nous is unmatched. And there is enough cover in the second row that de Jager’s absence has hardly been felt.
Without Marx, South Africa, at present the bookie’s favourites to win the tournament after demolishing Scotland in second gear, are instantly an outside bet. Ireland, New Zealand and France, who themselves have been waylaid by injuries to a front-rower, lock, fly-half and centre, won’t fear the South African pack as much without the bruiser from Johannesburg. There’s still a lot of hefty men knocking about, but, apart from Eben Etzebeth, who is carrying a shoulder niggle himself, none pack the same punch.
Comments on RugbyPass
Good summation Ned. Agree the Canes were out-muscled for once (except at the scrum!) by a focused Brumbies outfit. Tua deserves consideration for higher honors after the way he humbled Jordie and the Canes defense. Thankfully, his lack of eligibility for Oz keeps him from Joe’s plans. While I also agree the injuries affected the Canes performance, some players seemed to lack focus and intensity for this match. Perhaps after the Blues demolished the Brumbies, they thought it was going to be easy? A good reminder that any slip up in preparation can have a big affect on the result. Brumbies deserved that win.
1 Go to commentsKarl Dixon should never have been appointed this fixture, absolute disgrace, He’s not much of a referee anyway, didn't have the balls to send his mate care off
5 Go to commentsBrilliant article! Harry of 8/9
1 Go to comments‘UK athletes' have been in the NFL from the start.
1 Go to commentsIt’s going to be Scott Barrett. He’s the coaches mate and captain of a previously elite team. Ardie a great option but scooter has worked with the coach and Ardie still as big a leader as needed.
23 Go to commentsI commend Colin Scotts bio All Balls. He was the first Aussie to make it to NFL. But he was poached and did a full apprenticeship at the University of Hawaii. He was 130kgs surfed played 1st grade cricket etc. big guy by normal but not NFL standards and a top athlete. Even then the nfl were picking up Tongans and Samoans for their natural size and explosive power. They want explosive power not cardio from the big boys so a guy like Taniela Tupou would have been good if picked up young enough. He has fast twitch and they’d bulk the little lad up and give him something to do. soccer teams set up academies and look for Over Sara’s talent eg Messi was at Barcelona since a teenager and harry kewell went to Leeds as a teenager like 16 or something.
11 Go to commentsThe article alludes to the fact that this isn’t about picking a captain. But picking a great captain. So who would make for a great All Black captain - not just an obvious or safe shoo-in? I’m not sure Ardie’s the guy and Barret doesn’t stand out either.
23 Go to commentsI guess we may all agree on the fact, that the ABs and Boks are the two in contest for No 1 in rugby history (the triple-A sort of) …. the Wallabies, England and France are the next tier, with Ireland being the new kid in town (AA) …. in my view it makes little sense creating imaginary competitions (unless you have too much time to waste)
45 Go to commentsWhat a joke. Total joke and the pundits commentating, all of whom know a bit about the game, could barely disguise their contempt. Reaching for the card then pulling back when he realised a red card would carry further match suspensions is simply not his decision to make. A clear and obvious influence on the outcome of this match and indeed, the championship path.
5 Go to commentsI like the idea, in NZ the Ranfurly Shield and NPC coexist, both having their own bragging rights. The World Cup would be the pinnacle, but the competition and travels of these trophies would be interesting.
45 Go to commentsDon’t worry Sonny bill Williams leave that awkward situation about the curfew in the pass whoever it was it doesn’t matter its no big deal we back our All Blacks through the storm and the thunder until we see the Sun light again.
42 Go to commentsWho listens to this retard? He was a massive liability as a player but obviously a media sensation
42 Go to commentsI’m not surprised by such ‘virtue signalling’ by Sonny Boy. Butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth. He’s such a pious Islamic muppet, imo.
42 Go to commentsI’ve actually never heard of the guy (then I don’t watch League as it is boring). But if he is good enough.. then good luck to him. If not, well, he can always return to league.
2 Go to commentsIt is pretty clear that by almost any measure that NZ are a more successful rugby nation than South Africa. Quite aside from the distasteful events during the last RWC final. NZ lead SA in all significant measurements.
45 Go to commentsDickson went to his pocket for a card, saw who it was, changed his mind and spoke at length to TMO. One angle clearly shows Care diving over a Saints player to kill the ball. 1st yellow, reason given for not Red was player was falling backwards. He was only falling backwards after contact with Lawes. Graham try should have stood. Mitchell did not have both hands on the ball, ball went forward from a Saints boot dragging over it. 2 intentional knock-on's. One of which had an overlap on the outside. If Quins are happy to win by intentional foul play, then it does not say much for them. Would appear to be a bad day for Karl Dickson, also for the RFU in appointing a Ref who spent 8 years as a player at one of the clubs.
5 Go to commentsLet’s not forget about Ardie Savea just yet.
8 Go to commentsThe URC and the Euro Championscup can’t run at the same time, basically dilutes both competitions.
2 Go to comments“While Sotutu should start at No.8 for the All Blacks against England, but it’s only in that arena that he can prove just how good he really is.” And that my friends is where simply hasnt shone despite multiple opportunities. Even in this performance you can see what did him in in the test arena..he almost always still runs at the opposition almost ramrod upright making him easier to stop than it should be.
8 Go to commentsShould have been 0-0 and a message from SR CEO to both teams - “don’t worry about turning up next year”.
5 Go to comments