'They would be the favourites': John Eales' assessment of wide open RWC
John Eales knows what it takes to win a Rugby World Cup but the former Wallabies skipper says who will take this year’s title in France is anyone’s guess.
The tournament will open with a bang on Saturday (AEST) in Paris, with hosts France taking on New Zealand to kick-off a 40-match pool phase that will be played out in nine host cities across the country.
A draw based on rankings back in 2020 means the tournament has a skewed look: three of the current top-five teams – world No.1 Ireland, South Africa and Scotland – find themselves in the same pool, with only two able to advance.
It also means only two of the game’s top-four ranked teams in Ireland, New Zealand, the defending champion Springboks and France, can make the semi-finals.
Having fallen to a world ranking of ninth, Australia are on the “easy” side of the draw, facing Pool C clashes against seventh-ranked Fiji, Wales (10th), Georgia (11th) and Portugal (16th).
The top two will likely take on Argentina or 2019 finalists England from Pool D in the quarter-finals.
Eales, who steered Australia to World Cup glory in Wales in 1999, didn’t discount the Wallabies’ hopes of an upset victory despite their poor recent form, but predicted the winner would come from the other side of the draw.
“If you look at the teams on that side only two get through (to the semi-finals),” Eales told AAP.
“You’d have to say that of the two teams that get through from that side, they would be the favourites on current form to get through to the final.
“But to do that they’ve got to win a World Cup semi-final in a one-off game that could be against Australia, Argentina, England, Fiji, Wales or Japan – and any of those teams could beat one of those other teams on the day.”
Eales said the fluctuations in rankings, form and some surprise Test results mean the tournament is there for the taking.
Hosts France, the current world No.3, have appeared in three finals in the tournament’s 36-year history but never won the Webb Ellis Cup, while top-ranked Ireland have never made it past the quarter-finals.
The Springboks won their third title in Japan in 2019, while New Zealand have also been crowned world champions three times.
The Wallabies have won twice, the last time back in 1999, finished runners-up twice and never missed the quarter-finals.
“It’s just so open – and for the first time ever at a World Cup you would say that it doesn’t matter if you finish first or second in your pool,” Eales said.
“For instance, France and New Zealand are in the same pool but in the quarters they’re likely to play South Africa or Ireland – who would you rather play out of those two teams?
“You know you’re in for an incredibly tough game whichever one of those two teams you’re facing.”
Eales picked world No.5 Scotland, in Pool B alongside Ireland and South Africa as a smoky.
“People aren’t talking about Scotland a lot, but Scotland can beat any of those teams,” he said.
“If they were on Australia’s side of the draw they’d probably be the favourites on our side with how well they’ve been playing.”
Comments on RugbyPass
Should have been 0-0 and a message from SR CEO to both teams - “don’t worry about turning up next year”.
3 Go to commentsGreat work Owen Franks. A great of this team, scoring his first try for the Crusaders since 2010.He was beaming, justifiably. A fine win, he and the rest did the job up front.
1 Go to commentsDanny Care. Lang in die tand.
1 Go to commentsBig empty stadium does nothing for atmosphere but munster are playing well with solid performance
1 Go to commentsYes, Fiji can win the World Cup! With that belief plus their christian faith🙏 and hard work it is achievable. Great article. Ian Duncan Fiji resident 1981-84
2 Go to commentsInteresting comments about Touch. England’s hosting the Touch World Cup this year and the numbers have exploded since their last World Cup in 2019, something like 70% more teams and 40 nations taking part. And England Touch have made a big thing about how many universities are in their BUCS University Touch Championship as well as Sport England membership. Can only see this growing even more domestically as more people become aware of it
10 Go to comments“Cortez Ratima is light years ahead of anyone on current form, while TJ Perenara has also skyrocketed into contention following the unfortunate injury to the talented Cam Roigard.” At last some sanity. Hitherto so many pundits have been wittering on about Finlay Christie to the point one wondered if they were observing a FC in a parallel universe where the FC they saw wasnt just the mediocre Shayne Philpott project of Fosters hapless AB reign in the real world. Ratima, Perenara and Fakatava are the ONLY logical 9s for Razor now Roigard is crocked.
3 Go to commentsThis game was just as painful as the Hurricanes game. It was real fork-in-the-eye stuff.
3 Go to commentsNow if they could just fire the Crusaders ground PA guy who likes to play his dance music and just loves the sound of his own voice the entire game, even when play is going on. And I thought their brass band thing of a few years ago was bad.
5 Go to commentsUnfortunately when you lose by far the two form players this season in Roigard and Aumua, you're left replacing two game changing Tanks with a couple of pea-shooters. Which is also about the speed of TJs pass.
4 Go to commentsBit rich coming from the guy with zero loyalty to anyone or any team, including happily taking a players place in a league world cup squad because well, SBW wanted to play in it and thus an already named player got told he was no longer going. And airing stuff like this, which may or may not be true, doesn't exactly say you're a stand up guy either SBW. Just looking to keep his name in lights as usual.
38 Go to commentsTamati Tua. …the Taniwha NPC midfielder. Ollie Sapsford, Hawkes Bay NPC midfielder…doing well
4 Go to commentsFiji deserve to be in the rugby championship, fans love seeing the Fijian national team play, the Fijian Drua is a wonderful idea but the players can still be stolen to play for NZ and AUS…
2 Go to commentsThe first concern for this afternoon are wheather forecast…
1 Go to commentsWhy cant I watch Rugby games please?
1 Go to commentsBeautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
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