Coming season career-defining for two of the All Blacks' finest of 2021
While it’s true that most national sides begin preparations for one World Cup almost as soon as the champion is determined for the previous tournament, history has shown that what happens in the one, two and three years preceding the World Cup can sometimes have very little bearing on the outcome of rugby’s flagship competition.
In 2017, the Springboks were in disarray. After two years in charge of the side, Alister Coetzee had managed a 44 per cent win-rate and the South Africa Rugby Union wisely made the decision to bring in Rassie Erasmus, who managed to turn the team around over the next two seasons – but even that wasn’t instantaneous, and it was only really in the 2019 World Cup where the Springboks actually found their peak.
So although the All Blacks didn’t exactly set the world on fire in 2021, despite commanding the highest win percentage of any tier-one side, the ‘poor results’ from last year can very quickly be converted into successes and even if 2022 also doesn’t go to plan, that shouldn’t rule NZ out from notching up a fourth World Cup title a year later.
While 2022 won’t necessarily be pivotal for the All Blacks as a whole, it does loom as a crucial year for a number of key players in the wider squad. The fact that over 40 players were used by Ian Foster last season means there will be a number of unlucky men who miss out on selection this year, and it might not be the ones that many expect.
Crucially, some up-and-coming youngsters really stepped up to the plate when given opportunities in the black jersey and the coming Super Rugby Pacific season looms as a potential springboard for them to announce that they should just be considered backup options to All Black incumbents.
Not everything went to plan for Ian Foster's All Blacks this season – but 2023 could still prove fruitful. #AllBlackshttps://t.co/9BAe9NyH57
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) January 2, 2022
On the flip side, there are men who will be under pressure to prove that 2021 was a blip on the radar, that they weren’t up to their usual standards due to the unusual nature of the season, as opposed to anything intrinsic.
The two players who probably best advanced their cases last season, despite having considerably more experienced men ahead of them in the pecking order, were hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho and flanker Dalton Papalii.
Taukei’aho wasn’t even named in the initial squad but an early injury to Asafo Aumua saw the Chiefs hooker called up part-way through the July series. When Dane Coles went down during the pre-game warm-up ahead of NZ’s second test of the year, Taukei’aho stepped into the bench role and quickly impressed with his physicality off the bench.
Taukaie’aho managed just one start throughout the campaign – against Argentina at Brisbane – but he made eight appearances from the reserves, adding value with every late-game appearance. That was no more evident than in the All Blacks’ final game of the season against France, where the young rake was perhaps New Zealand’s best performer in the final quarter and the only man who never took a backwards step.
Of course, there are two very experienced men ahead of Taukei’aho in the hooking stocks, Codie Taylor and Dane Coles. The latter had limited opportunities in 2021, partially due to injury and partially due to remaining in NZ during the Rugby Championship, while the former was somewhat out of sorts during the season.
While Coles is still a strong performer and was arguably the All Blacks’ top hooker in 2020, it’s difficult to envisage a situation where the 35-year-old is the team’s first-choice No 2 at the 2023 World Cup, which means 2022 shapes as a straight battle between Taylor and Taukei’aho to determine who should be running out in the All Blacks’ starting line-up.
You would back Taylor to bounce back strongly with a more traditional season hopefully ahead of us but Taukei’aho’s taste of test rugby will have only made him hungrier.
It’s a similar story in the loose forwards, with Papalii getting an extended run at openside flanker thanks to the absence of injured captain Sam Cane.
Cane is an exceptional player – let’s make that clear right off the bat. The Chiefs loose forward is one of the most punishing defenders in New Zealand, regularly tops tackle counts and is a leader of the highest calibre. When Cane isn’t on the park, his team suffers – as was evident during the formative stages of the 2019 World Cup semi-final loss to England. Unfortunately, many fans and critics have short memories and when Cane is unavailable, it’s often forgotten how formidable a player he is.
All that being said, 2021 was a coming-of-age season for Papalii, who was one of the All Blacks’ strongest and most consistent players throughout their campaign. Had the coaches decided to return Ardie Savea to the No 7 jersey, it could have been another season of bit-part contributions for Papalii but he was instead given plenty of opportunities in his preferred openside flanker role and flourished with the responsibilities.
Questions remain how best to utilise the two senior All Blacks loose forwards – Sam Cane and Ardie Savea – alongide youngster Dalton Papalii. #AllBlacks https://t.co/Qpkr65xwV1
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) January 6, 2022
Cane remains the incumbent, however, and while it’s not out of the realms of possibility that all three of Savea, Papalii and Cane are used in one loose forward trio, it probably wouldn’t quite have the balance the selectors will be looking for.
It wouldn’t be right to turf Papalii out of the starting side after such an impressive run of performances last season simply because Cane is back in action but if everyone is fit, Foster and co are going to have to make some big decisions – and it could well be that Super Rugby form dictates selections.
Come 2023, Papalii will be 26 and have more than enough experience under his belt to help the All Blacks to a fourth World Cup title, provided he’s given opportunities to advance his case in the meantime. Cane may be the captain, but is he still going to be the best man for the job in almost two years’ time?
Ian Foster will be watching the coming Super Rugby Pacific season with great interest because after 2021, he and his fellow coaches will now be more acutely aware of where the All Blacks are lacking and the men who travelled to Europe last season will have been given plenty of work-ons for the season ahead.
2022 looms as a definitive season. Perhaps not for the All Blacks as a whole, but certainly for the individuals that make up the team.
Comments on RugbyPass
Looking forward to the Wallabies being competitive again. No doubt that Joe can get them back on track.
1 Go to commentsThanks, Nick, not only for this fine article, but for all the others during 6N 2024. I really enjoyed this 2024 tournament, and felt it was one of the best for many years. That final match in Lyons was really good. England were certainly unlucky when that speculative hack by Ramos lead to a French try. It could just so easily have landed in English hand.s, and they score at the other end. I did think though that the French played some great rugby, and some of their driving play in the forwards was just fearsome. I watched Meafou with interest, and he has a good start to his career. It is interesting to compare him with Will Skelton. Lot of similarities, though so far Meafou has not shown any offloading threat. All credit to Borthwick for being prepared to change, and what great result, even if that last game was lost at the death. I feel they are a real chance to cause the AB’s problems this winter/summer. Finally a comment on Ireland. I thought their last game was their worst, and they did not look like the world’s No 2 side at all. What really worries me is that the loss to England was, in my view, down to poor decision making by the coaching group, and ofc Andy Farrell wears that. It was a big mistake to move JGP away from scrum half. Murray should have been the one to go to the wing. And the “finishers” should have been on the field earlier. And this is the second time this has happened. The RWC Qf against the AB’s, and not getting Crowley onto the field was a huge mistake. Finally, finally, watching Italy play was a joy. How wonderful that they are no longer the punchbag of the 6 N.
41 Go to commentsGreat story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
41 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
23 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
41 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
41 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments