Why 3-0 over the Wallabies is not guaranteed for the Lions

The British & Irish Lions will bring one of their strongest-ever touring squads to Australia in 2025 under new head coach Andy Farrell but talk of a 3-0 sweep is too premature.

The Wallabies recent Rugby World Cup failure is not an indication of how they will be when the Lions arrive. That disastrous World Cup campaign is a textbook case study in what not to do.

Rugby Australia installed a new head coach and management with just five Tests left in the cycle on the whim of axed Chairman Hamish McLennan, a period in which Eddie Jones picked seven new captains, axed the most experienced players after the Rugby Championship, and took the statistically youngest side to the World Cup with the lowest number of caps.

He reduced the Wallabies game plan to a desolate version of power rugby, removing space manipulation through scheme, dumbing down the attacking play to the most simplistic, one-dimensional, unimaginative type of rugby available. Plan A was to use big bodies and brute force and there was no plan B.

Many of the players regressed with young flyhalf Carter Gordon stripped of the kind of rugby that made him look like such an exciting prospect at the Rebels. They prevented him from using his strengths and instead asked him to play an unnatural game requiring too much aimless kicking.

That level of instability trying to change everything Rennie had built in such a short time frame was always going to fail. The fly-by-night approach of Jones & McLennan was nothing short of a disaster.

Had Rennie been able to take the side to the World Cup things would have likely been better with largely the same group of players.

The Wallabies under Rennie held a 75 per cent win record over South Africa, the eventual champions, showing Australia’s potential at their best.

On the 2022 end of year tour they beat Wales 39-34 in Cardiff on the back of two tries by debutant Mark Nawaqanitawase. Just 12 months later when the two same sides met, Australia lost 40-6 in the pool stages.

On that same 2022 tour they lost by a point 30-29 to France’s full strength side in Paris featuring Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Gregory Alldritt, Charles Ollivon.

Had Rennie’s side qualified for the knockout stages, they would have been competitive against anyone bar the All Blacks who they struggled against all through his tenure.

The Wallabies were completely undone by management up top who are no longer involved.

There is enough time for the Wallabies to build a squad capable of beating the British & Irish Lions, at least once, and Australia have enough talent to do so.

They missed their defensive lynchpin Len Ikitau at the World Cup, one of the best defenders in the world, who went down with injury during the Rugby Championship. They lost the best prop in the world Taniela Tupou during the World Cup shortly after returning from injury. Rennie’s flyhalf Noah Lolesio was left in the cold by Jones.

In terms of world-class players they will have a few in addition to Tupou and Ikitau. Angus Bell will only be 25, Rob Valetini will be 27, Will Skelton is still viable at 33.

In terms of new faces, Max Jorgensen is a star in the making, while high profile recruit Joseph Sua’ali’i will be there. If he is Folau 2.0 the Wallabies would love to see him match Israel’s impact during the last Lions tour.

The Wallabies will be completely different outfit come 2025 and could be trending in the right direction if they need to get the head coaching appointment right. And hopefully soon so that they can embed the systems on defence, attack and set-piece with enough proficiency.

The Lions squad is short odds to be heavily-laden with Ireland players, particularly up front with most of Ireland’s pack expected to be picked. They will bring a level of cohesion and chemistry that will be difficult for the Wallabies to match.

There are many systemic issues in Australian Rugby. However, 18 months is a long time in rugby. Long enough for the Wallabies to sort themselves out to be competitive.