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It’s the time of the NRL season: when fans of the teams who made the finals start talking themselves into the possibility that their captain could be the one who lifts the Provan-Summons Trophy that fateful day in October.
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Unfortunately there are usually just as many reasons why your team will probably be on the outside looking in when the balloons drop and the Tina Turner starts blaring.
Melbourne Storm
Why They Will: The Storm are the presumptive favourites. Despite the loss of potential Immortal Billy Slater to injury they haven’t missed a beat this season with his heir apparent Cameron Munster at the back. With a points differential of over 10 points per game and with 14 fewer errors than any other team over the course of the season Melbourne play the sort of mistake-free football that wins premierships.
Why They Won’t: Karma. While the Melbourne Storm were harshly dealt with for their previous salary cap breaches there are still many league fans who feel like the boys from the banks of the Yarra haven’t suffered enough. The Storm have managed one post-purge title but a second would match the two stripped for the breaches and arguably render them moot. In the waning years of Slater, Cronk and Smith this might be their best and last chance to win another.
Canberra Raiders
Why They Will: Scorching offense. The Raiders have been the surprise packet of this year’s competition – the surprise has been that they haven’t been completely rubbish. Comprised largely of cast-offs, reprobates and Englishmen, Ricky Stuart has the Raiders playing an enterprising and electric brand of footy that has seen them become the most entertaining team in the NRL. The three quarter line of Jordan Rapana, BJ Leilua and Jarrod Croker has proven to be both imaginative and explosive. Collectively they’ve scored 100 points and 19 tries more than anyone else. If any team is to prove the old saw ‘that defence wins championships’ wrong then it could be this team.
Why They Won’t: Defense. The aforementioned old saw is rusty and buggered for a reason. The Raiders have conceded more points than any other team remaining aside from the feel-good Titans. Since 1998 only four teams have won the Premiership after conceding more points than the Raiders. No team has won the premiership in the last decade with such a leaky defense. It’s doubtful the Raiders can turn this trend around but it will definitely be fun to watch them try.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Why They Will: They are overdue. Despite being in the competition since 1967 the Sharks are one of only three teams never to have won a Premiership. It’s almost cruel to think that a day one Sharks fan could have gone nearly their entire working lives without tasting a single celebratory can of Toohey’s.
Why They Won’t: Too many grubs. Michael Ennis escaped suspension for a blatant shoulder charge and is free to play the finals while Canberra’s Jack Wighton has been rubbed out for the season for a similar crime. Andrew Fifita has been censured for consorting with criminals and thought it was a good idea to advertise his support for a convicted murderer on his strapping. At this point of his career Paul Gallen is largely composed of peptides and poorly considered tweets. This team winning a Premiership would be like giving a Hopoate to all that is good and holy. No way it happens.
North Queensland Cowboys
Why They Will: Johnathan Thurston. There is very little that JT hasn’t accomplished in his illustrious career and it will be a dead heat between him and Cameron Smith to see who is named an Immortal first. Coupled with his outstanding rep career, a third Premiership would push him closer to being arguably the greatest halfback of all time. JT is a man for the big occasion and it would be fitting to see him do one more lap of honour before his career winds down.
Why They Won’t: They won it last year. Since 1998 no team has won back-to-back Premierships. Despite their loaded playing roster, the rigors of defending a title seem to be too much for even the most hardened and talented squads. Coupled with the fact that they have to play crucial games on the road it seems unlikely that Cowboys will break the streak.
Brisbane Broncos
Why They Will: Pedigree. Under Wayne Bennett the Broncos have won an NRL-best six Premierships since 1992. Bennett is the NRL’s equivalent of Yoda and seems to have perfected the knack of getting the best out of rugby league journeymen. There is just something pre-ordained about the maroon and gold running around at the pointy end of the season.
Why They Won’t: The Broncos still look to be suffering the ill-effects of last year’s Ben Hunt-inspired Grand Final meltdown. While Hunt and his partner in crime Anthony Milford are capable of fits of brilliance their inconsistent play isn’t liable to make anyone forget Langer and Walters anytime soon. The Broncos will ride Bennett’s expertise and their past success as far as it will take them but it would be surprising to see them in the decider again.
Penrith Panthers
Why They Will: Momentum. The Panthers have won their last five games by an average score of 34 – 10. New coach Anthony Griffin has his team humming on the run into the finals and while the opposition hasn’t been the stiffest the Panthers are definitely building a head of steam at the right time.
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Why They Won’t: The follies of youth. The men from the Blue Mountains are loaded to the brim with some of the most exciting young talent in the game – it seems all but assured that glorious careers await the likes of Bryce Cartwright, Nathan Cleary, Tyrone Peachey and Matt Moylan. Unfortunately, the history of finals success with young players filling crucial positions is not great. The Panthers definitely have the makings of a great team but it seems safer to pencil them in for the 2018 Grand Final than this year.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Why They Will: Forward dominance. The Bulldogs boast an enormous starting pack featuring a gaggle of hardened rep players, two of the scariest albinos this side of Midwich and the best league player ever produced in Manurewa. That’s before they roll roughly half a tonne of Sam Kasiano and Tony Williams off the bench. As the game slows down in the finals the Dogs should be able to use their size and strength to grind down some of their flightier opposition.
Why They Won’t: Inconsistency. Despite a long history of finals success something isn’t right with this year’s vintage. On their day the Dogs have been a match for any team in the comp but they have also dropped games to the Warriors, Eels and Rabbitohs. Halves Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds have been erratic presences and their back line appears to lack the kind of top end finishing necessary to win a Premiership. It’s possible that Des Hasler’s gruff and gravelly disciplinarian schtick has started to wear a bit thin. If the Bulldogs can’t put together a strong finals run questions might start to be asked about whether he is the man for the job.
Gold Coast Titans
Why They Will: Jarryd Hayne. At some point between dreaming about winning a Super Bowl, dreaming about winning an Olympic gold medal and dreaming about being the first Fijian to walk on the Moon it seems certain that Hayne dreamed about winning an NRL Premiership. While he made the big dance with the Eels in 2009 he has yet to secure a Premiership ring. If Hayne returned to the NRL with any intention other than stacking up those Douglas Mawsons then surely it was winning a Premiership. If he is motivated, then anything is possible including landing on the Moon or the slightly less probable: Gold Coast winning its first Premiership.
Why They Won’t: Gold Coast squeaked into the finals on the last day of the season on the back of two losses courtesy of a Wests Tigers capitulation. The Titans haven’t look like genuine playoff contenders – they wouldn’t be in the 8 if the Eels hadn’t been docked 12 points for salary cap breaches earlier in the season – and barring some Hayne magic should have their Mad Monday arrangements firmly in place.
Comments on RugbyPass
Je suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
25 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
25 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
25 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
25 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
11 Go to comments