Why a Wallabies great thinks the All Blacks are RWC 'favourites'
Australian rugby great Tim Horan believes the All Blacks are “still the favourites to win” next year’s World Cup in France, even though they’re currently ranked third in the world.
While the All Blacks had a mixed campaign this year, which included historic losses at home against both Ireland and Argentina, they began to hit their stride towards the backend of the season.
After losing against Los Pumas in Christchurch, the men in black went on a seven Test unbeaten run to finish their campaign – which included a dramatic draw with England at Twickenham.
But with the World Cup almost nine months away, the All Blacks’ greatest challenge awaits them in France next season.
The All Blacks are always under pressure to perform, but for a rugby mad nation like New Zealand, the sports biggest event simply means more.
As the attention of the rugby world begins to shift towards next year’s World Cup, Wallabies legend Tim Horan has explained why he thinks the All Blacks are “the team to beat.”
“I still think, and I said this a couple of weeks ago, the All Blacks in my opinion are still the favourites to win the World Cup,” Horan told Martin Devlin on The Platform earlier this week.
“Yes you’ve got Ireland (who are) number one in the world, yes you’ve got France who are going to be very hard to beat in their home World Cup.
“That first Test match for the All Blacks against France will be incredible to watch that.
“I still think the All Blacks, when they get a few players back from injury, got very good depth and understand how to play the game. I just think the All Blacks in my opinion are the team to beat in the World Cup.”
The All Blacks do face an almighty challenge at the World Cup though, having been drawn in Pool A along with hosts France.
France, who are ranked second in the world, won all of their Test matches in 2022 and are widely believed to be among the favourites for the sports ultimate prize.
As these two traditional rugby rivals go head-to-head in search of World Cup glory, they’ll likely have to play either Ireland or South Africa in the quarterfinals.
World No. 1 Ireland have never made it past that stage of the tournament, while the Springboks are of course the reigning world champions.
“At the moment with the way the seedings are you’d think (one of those four teams would win it), but two of them are going to get knocked out,” Horan added.
“You look at the way England played in the 2019 Rugby World Cup, they had that one massive match against the All Blacks in the semi-final to put them into the final.
“Of course the Wallabies in the pool will end up finishing one or two in the pool, and end up playing Argentina or England in the quarterfinals.
“It’s a really competitive World Cup. There’s still a lot of rugby to be played between now and then and there’s going to be some injuries to some key players and that might hurt some teams.”
The Autumn Nations Series has proved to rugby fans around the world that the sport is simply more competitive that it ever has been before.
Georgia recorded a famous win over Wales in Cardiff last month, Italy beat the Wallabies for the first time ever, and Argentina ended a lengthy drought at Twickenham against England.
As Horan said, there are “probably seven or eight teams” capable of winning big Test matches on their day.
“I think you could probably pick seven or eight teams at the moment, even Argentina, they can upset someone, Japan might upset someone in their pool.
“I think Scotland could beat Ireland in their pool the way they’ve been playing.
“The hard thing on the draw is the top four teams at the moment in the world, Ireland, France, the All Blacks and the Springboks, are of course all on one side of the draw.
“Two of those teams won’t make a semi-final. It’s going to be probably the most competitive World Cup that we’ve seen for a long time.”
Comments on RugbyPass
Great story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
39 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
23 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
39 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
39 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
2 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
4 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
6 Go to comments