So-called 'world's best' Ireland set for Springbok reality check

The kegs of Guinness have been emptied and the confetti has all been swept away. Now that Ireland have secured a second consecutive Six Nations title, attention turns to a heavyweight clash that will categorically prove which team is the undisputed best in the world: Andy Farrell’s Irish, or the double world champion Springboks.

It seems neither group really wants the label just yet. Despite Finn Russell, Steve Borthwick, Sam Warburton and a host of prominent voices hailing Ireland as the game’s number one team, Farrell himself has shifted the accolade south to the Springboks. For his part, Rassie Erasmus swatted aside the conversation in a recent press conference.

Fine. If they won’t get into it, we will. So let us pick at the entrails and cast our gaze into a crystal ball. A lot can change in four months, and no doubt these words will blow up in my face if any of the predictions below prove to be even slightly off. With that said, here’s why South Africa will claim a two-nil series victory and, in doing so, end an eight-year winless streak against Ireland.

Nigel Owens about the state of South African refereeing

Nigel Owens about the state of South African refereeing

Let’s start with our feet in the past. When Ireland arrived in South Africa in June 2016 uncertainty hung heavy in the air. These were not the titanic iterations we have today but two groups finding their feet. Joe Schmidt’s tourists – with Farrell serving as defence coach – had spluttered their way through that year’s Six Nations campaign, finishing third with only two wins. What’s more, the previous year was marked by a disappointing quarter-final exit at the World Cup.

South Africa were a work in progress. This was Allister Coetzee’s first assignment as head coach. In a squad of 31, 17 would go on to win the World Cup in 2019 though 20 players had fewer than 15 Test caps under their belt.

Ireland won a shambolic opening game in Cape Town, 20-26, their first ever victory over the Springboks in South Africa. But that only woke the bear. The Boks won the next two Tests and with them the series. These weren’t blockbuster performances but, at the time, it felt as if some sort of cosmic balance had been restored.

That is what the Springboks do; more often than not, they win games they’re supposed to win. When a team triumphs by a solitary point on three consecutive occasions to claim a World Cup, it is South Africa, and no one else, that gets over the line. Dismiss this as happenstance, but then take it up with New Zealand’s Will Jordan who recently said that it was “no fluke”.

All the great teams have this aura. The English of 2003 and the All Blacks under Richie McCaw had the same sense of indomitability. Ireland, as they’ve shown, don’t quite have that yet. They offered glimpses of it by winning a series in New Zealand and then a Six Nations grand slam a year later, but another quarter-final exit at the World Cup proved they couldn’t rise when weighted down by expectation. Their loss to England this month further enhances this argument.

Which means they’ll arrive in South Africa having received a reality check but still buoyed by the hype that surrounds them. Hype, however, marches in lockstep with pressure. Only one of our protagonists seemingly has the stuff to cope with it.

Of course there are more pragmatic rugby reasons why the Springboks should be confident. Home crowds play a role in elite sport and the South African public will be baying for what they would regard as retribution for Ireland’s hubris. They’ve already claimed Ireland’s unofficial fan song as their own, bastardising it, twisting it to offer fealty to Erasmus. Now, having bought every ticket available in Pretoria and Durban, they’ll create an intimidating atmosphere for their guests, especially at Loftus which, at the best of times, is as welcoming as a Roman slaughterhouse.

Then there’s the altitude. Not a factor on the coast in Durban but it will come into play in Pretoria. Given this is (criminally) a two-Test series, that first encounter could be decisive, forcing the loser to chase the game in the second. With South Africa able to effectively field a second pack, it is easy to envisage tiring Irish forwards running out gas in the closing stages. Unless they have a lead come the 65th minute, they could get blown away.

Speaking of second packs, Ireland adopted a six-two bench split in three of their five Six Nations matches. It worked against Italy and France (who also went with the same strategy) but combusted against England. This was seen as a victory for the spirit of rugby against the impending suffocation caused by lumbering meaty men. This is overly simplistic. Instead, the focus should be on Ireland’s backs not having enough versatility to cope when tasked with a positional shift, and the lack of an all-round game from some key forwards.

Fixture

Internationals

South Africa

11:00

6 Jul 24

Ireland

All Stats and Data

This is not a problem for South Africa. Damian Willemse, like Frans Steyn before him, can play in six positions in the backline. Canan Moodie can operate across five positions. Grant Williams is faster than most Test wingers. Pieter-Steph du Toit and Franco Mostert could play in either the back or second row. What’s more, South Africa’s penchant for the six-two seems to be a ploy catered to their strengths and not one born out of the desire to shoe-horn in an ageing captain. With respect to the great Peter O’Mahony, the extra forward on Ireland’s bench appeared to be a counterweight to his waning powers.

England proved that if you get in the face of the Irish if you cram bodies in their well-oiled machine and stifle their continuity you can beat them. No other team disrupts the opposition like South Africa. They remain the masters of the rush defence and, unlike their World Cup game against Ireland, when they stubbornly refused to go to the line-out as if they were holding back cards, they’ll let rip with everything they’ve got in July.

Because this series matters to South Africa. For more than a decade the Springboks lived in the shadow of the All Blacks. Now, with two World Cups and a British & Irish Lions series, they’ve forged a dynasty. Or, should I say forging? They’re not done yet. Taking the scalp of a truly brilliant Irish team would underline their supremacy. And there is nothing more dangerous in rugby than a Springboks side on a mission.