What the stats say about Billy Burns and the player Ulster have on their hands
The signing of the 24-year-old looks on the surface to be a canny pick up by Ulster rugby. Burns, Irish-qualified with over 100 appearances for Gloucester despite his age, will add some considerable experience and quality to Ulster at flyhalf.
He can cover a number of positions across the backline, namely at out-half and at full back. In this piece we want to dig down into Burns’ performances over the last two seasons at out-half in particular.
The reasoning behind looking into the last two seasons only is because he was getting consistent game time for Gloucester at 10. His appearances were scattered from 2014 when he made his Aviva Premiership bow against Worcester Warriors until the 2015/16 season.
Billy played 29 times last season with a healthy 24 starts over the 2017/18 season. However, we will only consider his performances at 10 because including performances at fullback can bias the numbers. For example, you would expect a fullback to have more metres run over a match than an out-half as they sit back guarding the back field against kicks in behind with free space to run into.
Below we can see his overall scoring statistics covering 55 games at 10 over the last two seasons. What jumps out here is the number of conversions, penalties scored and the number of tries he has assisted in.
The former Cherry and Whites out-half doesn’t score a huge amount of tries but he is a reliable kicker when called upon. It is encouraging to see 22 try assists over the last two seasons which should help bring out the best in Ulster’s backline.
If we check his attacking performances over the last 55 games below, we find more encouraging statistics for Ulster supporters. He has an impressive average of 4.2 metre per run across two seasons.
Burns has a pretty decent record in relation to clean breaks, defenders beaten and offloads with 26, 48 and 19 respectively.
Looking at his defence over the last 2 seasons in the image above, we do find a slight chink in the armour with an average of 1 turnover conceded a game over 55 games. His tackle completion percentage is actually not too bad with 82% overall. He made 336 tackles with 73 tackles missed. That gives us an average of about 6 tackles.
That isn’t to say that Burns doesn’t roll up the sleeves at times when it comes to defence. In contrast Billy made an outrageous 19 tackles with 2 missed in a 24-19 win against Worcester warriors in 2017. That’s a tackle success rate of 90%.
Discipline is another area of strength for the youngster with only 8 penalties given away over 3493 minutes which gives us about 1 penalty conceded every 437 minutes.
Digging down deeper into individual seasons, we find a huge discrepancy with 26 penalties scored in the 2016/17 season but only 3 scored last season. The explanation for this small amount of penalties scored last season was because Billy Twelvetrees and Owen Williams were primarily given the kicking duties.
It must be noted that in the 2016/17 season, Burns had to contend with Twelvetrees, James Hook and Greg Laidlaw for the kicking responsibilities but still amassed quite a number of conversions and penalties. There is some consistency to be found with 3 tries and 11 try assists made in each season.
His metres per run performance decreased from 4.8m to 3.6m for the 2017/18 season. The number of clean breaks dropped by 4 but there was an increase in the number of defenders beaten by 10. He tripled the amount of offloads he made last season from the 2016/17 season.
Counterintuitively despite playing in 28 games last season compared to 27 games in the previous season, we find that Billy’s minutes played at flyhalf were actually lower than the previous season. He played 1716 minutes last season compared to 1777 minutes in the previous season at 10.
Burns has underperformed in terms of defence this season giving away 9 more turnovers with 32 conceded last season. His tackle success rate also decreased from the 2016/17 season to the 2017/18 season going from 85% to 80% respectively.
The Bath-born out-half improved in terms of discipline conceding only 2 penalties last season compared to 6 in the previous season. Also Burns received no yellow or red cards over two seasons despite playing 55 games.
With Cipriani having just signed for Gloucester, Burns might have found himself coming on from the bench more often. Ulster were lacking an experienced out-half to steer the ship and he seems to tick all the boxes. Burns wants to play at the highest level and through a paternal grandparent, he could well find himself with an opportunity to show what he is capable of on the international stage.
All things considered, this seems like a sensible conclusion for all parties involved.
Comments on RugbyPass
The shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
1 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
8 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
56 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
8 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
61 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to comments