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Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
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Ask any sports tipster and they’ll all tell you the same thing: it’s the little wins that keep you sane. So instead of focusing on the three matches Paul got wrong last week (Lions vs Crusaders, Brumbies vs Chiefs, and Waratahs vs Rebels) let us instead celebrate the minor triumph of his first correct Blues call of 2016. A really proud moment. 4/7 on the week takes Paul’s season record to 35/48 for a success percentage of 73%. Round 7’s slate of games appear – on paper, at least – fairly straightforward to pick. Here are Paul’s oracular selections.
Chiefs vs Blues
After watching the Chiefs’ demolition job on the Brumbies, you have to wonder where the Blues can challenge them. The answer is probably in defence, as the Blues tackling is normally resolute and heavy – big hits delivered by big men. They will need to mark up for 80 minutes though, as the Chiefs have been killing teams in ten-second bursts. Behind the scrum is where the biggest imbalance seems to lie. Damian McKenzie is in his best position – he always looks more dangerous when allowed to roam around the backfield and inject himself into the line at opportune moments – while Charlie Ngatai is perhaps the form New Zealand player at the moment. Ngatai going up against George Moala should be a huge battle. I have to take the Chiefs here, and I would be thinking about a decent margin too.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)
Force vs Crusaders
Perth might not be the Crusaders’ favourite venue – they’ve had some bad days out West in the past – but they’re simply a much better footy team in 2016 than the Force. The Crusaders will have them covered across the park, and any sloppy kicking will come back with interest The Force can’t count on another opponent dropping the ball 20 times as the Highlanders did (the Crusaders had only four fumbles against the Lions), and even then the Highlanders still drew away. The Crusaders will win and should win by plenty.
Pick: Crusaders (13 and over)
Stormers vs Sunwolves
This looms as a total mismatch unless the Stormers decide to rest their entire forward pack. Given the way the Stormers have been bullying some decent eights into submission, and given the Sunwolves struggles at the set piece, the visitors can expect a really tough workout. The Stormers have the best lineout and, in Eben Etzebeth, one of the best forwards in the whole competition; the Sunwolves have the weakest lineout of the 18 teams. The Stormers love bashing sides up at scrum-time, too, another Sunwolves weakness. And the Stormers aren’t prone to doing dumb things and leaving gaping holes in the defensive line; it takes most of an afternoon to break them down even once. If the home side doesn’t win this one by plenty, swabbing will be conducted immediately after the match.
Pick: Stormers (13 and over)
Hurricanes vs Jaguares
The Hurricanes had moments against the Force when they looked really good but, like the Highlanders last week, played down to the visitors’ level rather than burying them. The Jaguares are still coming to grips with the demands of this competition and it’s not something they can learn overnight, even for a nearly test-strength outfit. They won’t make it easy for the Hurricanes, but the game-breakers are wearing yellow shirts and the home forwards can be relied upon to put in a solid shift. It’s also Cory Jane’s 100th game for the Hurricanes, so the team will have that in the back of their minds as added motivation.
Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)
Reds vs Highlanders
The Reds have the most talked-about scrum in the competition just now. The Highlanders actually have the most stable and most successful, with hardly any of their own ball lost and a decent supply pinched off the opposition. The Reds have nothing else. The Highlanders can kill teams from close in, from long-range, in the air, on the ground, by boot or by sleight of hand … you name it and the Highlanders can do it. If they get a fair go from the ref at scrum time, this one should be quite lop-sided and if the visitors concentrate properly they should run away with it.
Pick: Highlanders (13 and over)
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Sharks vs Lions
I’m looking forward to this one. The Sharks have a good record but they’ve played pig-ugly all season, while the Lions have been prepared to attack, take chances and occasionally have things blow up in their faces. They, too, have a good record. The Sharks like to get ahead and sit on the opposition through the second half, while the Lions have a more up-tempo, win-some lose-some in attitude, but they’re also hard-headed and increasingly successful. I got it wrong with the Lions last week but I’m prepared to go back to the same well again; an attacking mindset is often better than a defensive one, and here the visitors hold an edge.
Pick: Lions (12 and under)
Kings vs Bulls
The Bulls have won three and drawn one of their last four, yet how they’ve managed that will forever remain a mystery as they’ve looked far from formidable. A decent but unthreatening pack is the team’s best weapon; the backline is workmanlike at best with not a great deal of speed. The Kings aren’t as good as the Bulls, but they try hard all the time and have one of the quickest guys I’ve seen in some time in Malcolm Jaer. Trouble is he seldom gets good running ball, since the Kings backline isn’t all that flash either. Former Bull Louis Fouche is the best of the available kickers and his old mates won’t want to give him too many chances. It shouldn’t matter though; the visitors should be good enough to win, even if it almost certainly won’t be pretty.
Pick: Bulls (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
He is right , the Crusaders will be a threat. Scott Barrett, ( particularly), Fergus Burke , Codie Taylor, ( from sabbatical) etc due back soon for the Crusaders. There are others like Zach Gallagher too. People can right the Crusaders off, Top 8 , here we come !!
1 Go to commentsWe will always struggle for money to match the other sides but the least the WRU can do is invest properly in Welsh rugby. Too much has been squandered on vanity projects like the hotel and roof walk amongst others which will never see a massive return. Hanging the 4 pro sides out to dry over the last decade is now coming back to bite the WRU financially as well as on the pitch. You reap what you sow.
1 Go to commentsWhat do you get if you cross a doctor with a fish? A plastic sturgeon
14 Go to commentsWhat happened to feleti Kaitu’u? Hasnt played in a while right?
1 Go to commentsGregor I just can’t agree with you. You are trying to find something that just isn’t there. Jordie Barrett has signed until 2028. By the end of that he would have spent probably 11-12 years on Super Rugby and you say he can’t possibly have one season playing somewhere else. It is absurd. What about this scenario, the NZR play hard ball and he decides to leave and play overseas. How would that affect the competition. There seems to be an agenda by certain journalists to push certain agendas and don’t like it when it’s not to their liking. I fully support the NZR on this. Gregor needs to get a life.
2 Go to commentsHope he stays as believe he can do a great job.
1 Go to commentsMake what step up? Manie has a World Cup winner’s medal around his neck and changed the way the Springboks can play. He doesn’t have anything to prove to anyone. The win record of the Boks with him in the team is tremendous. Sacha can be wonderful and I hope he has a very succesful Bok career, but comparing him to Manie in terms of the next Bok flyhalf is very strange. Manie is the incumbent (not the next) and doing pretty incredibly.
1 Go to comments00 😍 U
1 Go to commentsSabbaticals have helped keep NZ’s very best talent in the country on long term deals - this fact has been left out of this article. Much like the articles calling to allow overseas players to be selected, yet can only name one player currently not signed to NZR who would be selected for the ABs. And in the entire history of NZ players leaving to play overseas, literally only 4 or 5 have left in their prime as current ABs. (Piatau, Evans, Hayman, Mo’unga,?) Yes Carter got an injury while playing in France 16 years ago, but he also got a tournament ending injury at the 2011 World Cup while taking mid-week practice kicks at goal. Maybe Jordie gets a season-ending injury while playing in Ireland, maybe he gets one next week against the Brumbies. NZR have many shortcomings, but keeping the very best players in the country and/or available for ABs selection is not one of them. Likewise for workload management - players missing 2 games out of 14 is hardly a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Again let’s use some facts - did it stop the Crusaders winning SR so many times consecutively when during any given week they would be missing 2 of their best players? The whole idea of the sabbatical is to reward your best players who are willing to sign very long term deals with some time to do whatever they want. They are not handed out willy-nilly, and at nowhere near the levels that would somehow devalue Super Rugby. In this particular example JB is locked in with NZR for what will probably (hopefully) be the best years of his career, hard to imagine him not sticking around for a couple more after for a Lions tour and one more world cup. He has the potential to become the most capped AB of all time. A much better outcome than him leaving NZ for a minimum of 3 years at the age of 27, unlikely to ever play for the ABs again, which would be the likely alternative.
2 Go to commentsJake White talks more sense than anything I've read in the last 5 years. Hope someone's listening.
9 Go to commentsThe Springboks tried going down the road of only picking home-based players and it was an unmitigated disaster in 2016 and 2017. Picking overseas-based players has been one of the main reason the Boks have done so well since 2018, not only because of the quality Rassie could call on, but because of the knowledge and experience those players brought into camp from England, France and Japan. With some of the big names playing abroad it also gave younger players in SA the chance to break through at franchise level. Would we have seen the emergence of a Ruan Nortje if RG and Lood were still at the Bulls? Not so sure. I understand why Jake would want to block players leaving since his job depends on good results but it’s an approach that would take Bok rugby back to the bad old days and no South African wants to see that.
9 Go to commentsExeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
39 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
39 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
86 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
86 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
14 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to comments