Ireland reign supreme but there is one area they're worse than Wales - Six Nations
In just seven weeks, the fortunes of the teams in the Six Nations have changed dramatically. For some, clear growth has been seen and there are green shoots of optimism springing up. For others, that optimism has been slowly extinguished over the five rounds. With the men’s Six Nations filed away for another year, we look at the key stats from this year’s tournament and take a look at where each team will look to improve for the summer and autumn Tests later this year.
Wasteful Ireland
Ireland had a perfect Six Nations. Almost. At one point it looked like they would secure the double Grand Slam with five consecutive victories in the men’s Six Nations and five in the U20s. Unfortunately, hope of a Grand Slam ‘double’ hit the skids on the same weekend. First the U20s drew with England then the senior men lost at Twickenham in one of the great Six Nations encounters on a scintillating weekend of action.
It was a tournament which hit serious highs for Ireland. But their exceptional team of coaches will be looking for marginal gains to grow this evolving side. One area they can focus on is a wasteful attack. By tries scored, Ireland led the table. They scored 19, six ahead of France, England, and Wales on 13. However, they were inefficient – by their lofty standards – when entering the opposition 22. Ireland scored a try on 34% of their 22 entries, but that is behind Wales (35%) and Scotland (36%) and level with Italy.
Ireland far exceeded the number of 22 entries achieved by both Wales and Scotland, as you can see in the table above. The reason why the Irish efficiency is important though is because of their final two games. Against England they achieved just eight 22 entries, their lowest of the tournament, and scored a try on the only 25% of them. England had 15, though a lower efficiency rate of just 20% meant they came away with a single try more. Against Scotland they had 14 entries, their highest of the tournament, but scored a try on just 14% of them.
Those games against England and Scotland go down as warning signs of what can happen if Ireland don’t improve their efficiency, especially with a titanic series against world champions South Africa up next. Against England of course they lost but against Scotland they should have been not only victorious but victorious with a bonus point given the openings they created. Instead they scored just two tries and had a nervy final few minutes when leading by four points.
There are reasons to be optimistic for Wales judging from 22 entries. They had as many entries as they allowed for a difference of 0. Across a league season we would expect a team with a 22 entries difference of 0 to win roughly as many games as they lost. In Wales’ case, they lost every game and took back the Wooden Spoon for the first time since 2003. Equally, there are reasons for slight pessimism for both Italy and Scotland. They both won two matches but those underlying stats suggest those results won’t be sustainable.
A game of possessions
We rarely talk about possessions but they are the driving force of a well-honed attack. Simply put, a possession is every time you have the ball. For example, a team kicks off to you and you carry for a couple of phases before kicking the ball back – that is one possession. If the opposition immediately kick back, then you have started your second possession. On average, teams had 36 possessions per match but these were not evenly distributed.
Ireland topped the charts with 40.6 possessions per game and Wales were bottom with 34. However, Wales and Ireland had 21 minutes of possession per match, the most of the tournament. Wales achieved this by squeezing everything out of the possessions they did have with an average time per possession of 36.9 seconds. That was the highest in the tournament and four seconds higher than the next highest, France.
While that sounds positive for Wales, they frequently overplayed when they did have possession. Think back to their relentless pick and goes against Ireland which resulted in nothing more than an eventual mistake or turnover. One of Wales’ weaknesses was an insistence on keeping ball in hand until they had to kick. Teams always want to kick on their own terms. Louis Lynagh’s try against Scotland was a perfect example of kicking early in your possession rather than waiting for all other avenues to be shut down. Italy won the ball in the air, carried once, and then chipped into the space created by their dynamic attack. Too often, Wales were forced to kick when all other avenues had been shut down. That made their kicking game less effective and not a single Welsh try came directly from their own kick.
Looking at possessions can also help us understand a team’s playing style. Against Ireland, England passed 4.5 times per possession, their highest total of the tournament. Their previous matches had been 4.1 vs Italy, 2.9 vs Wales, and 3.5 vs Scotland. Despite the narrative England got more expansive and adventurous as the tournament went on, their total against France was just 2.3. While England have gradually become more expansive, they still maintain multiple playing styles and can pull out whichever one suits their requirements. Expect to see their barnstorming style in good weather or against weaker opposition and their more pragmatic style in the rain or against a team who are more dominant in defence.
Shape of the game
The end of a tournament is a great time to reflect on how the game as a whole has evolved and what this might mean for the future. Let’s have a look at four key stats and compare them to the World Cup and the Six Nations in 2023.
A few things may jump out at you from this table. First of all, that is an enormous leap of 12% in ball-in-play time between the World Cup and this tournament. The jump is less stark when compared to the previous Six Nations but even a small increase of 23 seconds is to be celebrated. Secondly, kicks are on the increase and there is more of a focus on competitive kicks rather than extended kicking battles. There was some concern after the second round the Dupont Law would blight the games, but it never really reared its head again.
The origin of tries will be of interest to coaches and fans alike. Lineouts are only getting more important as almost 60% of tries now come from them, it was below 50% in the two previous tournaments. Increasingly these lineout tries can be traced back to penalties conceded in a position where the best option is to kick to touch. Defence coaches also need to pay attention to ensure their charges don’t give up penalties which lead to these lineout tries. In other positive news, the percentage of tries originating in a team’s own half have stayed the same as they did at the World Cup. Of course, the World Cup featured significant mismatches where long range tries would’ve been expected but it looks like attack coaches in the Six Nations have continued in the same vein.
Finally, the goal-line dropouts per match have dropped considerably. There is still a split over whether the awarding of a goal line dropout is too advantageous to the defence for holding the ball up. The data shows whichever way your opinion falls, we have gone from over two a match to less than one. This is a decrease even from the 2023 World Cup where there were 0.9 dropouts per game.
At the end of a wonderful tournament, it looks like the product on the pitch is in as healthy a position as it ever has been.
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Comments on RugbyPass
One significant tell, not a single Waratahs player stopped to whinge to the ref about Finau’s tackle. They got on with playing the game. Great tackle.
8 Go to commentsWouldn’t be a bad move if Ireland pulled into SA with a young side. Particularly in Pretoria. Invaluable experience getting thumped in the bosveld.
53 Go to commentsIreland. The Princess Diana of Rugby. I never cheered so much for a team as i did for the All Blacks in that QF.
53 Go to commentsWill be great to see the Leinster first XV back in action again after their cotton wool time…
1 Go to commentsLooked up Grant Constable on google and reply was doppelgänger for Ben Smith
53 Go to commentsIt is so good that we now all get excited and debate who is best and emotionally get involved. We all back our teams which is great. Up until about 15-20 years ago, NZ was basically on its own, and then Saffa, Aussie and sometimes French and English were there. We now have at least 5-6 really top sides and another 4 who keep improving. This is so healthy. So we should not resort to rubbish comments and unhealthy debate, but rather all be chuffed that the product we watch is not competitive, exciting and often uncertain. It would be so good if World Rugger could find a way to align the rules to professional players as well as spectators. Live rugby games are SO boring as there is SO much down time as we wait for refs and TMOs and whoever else to look at every small event going back endless phases with the hope of eventually find a minute infringement to then decide cancel what was a wonderful try. This is the ultimate cork back in the bottle moment and feels like every balloon is always being popped. Come on- we must be better with the rules.
53 Go to comments“upon leaving said establishment I tripped over a stool knocking some bottles into the air and as I fell I accidently dislodged a police officer’s teaser who was passing by on an unrelated matter there by landing on said taser which caused it to discharge 50,000 watts into me. Out of shock I shouted Ireland are going to win the world cup. Upon waking up I apologised for the distress caused by my Ireland comment. The matter is closed. If you wish to pursue this matter may I remind you what I told Wayne Barnes when he sent me off. I AM A BIG ASS MAN”. Or was it “I AM A BIG ASS, MAN” or was it “I AM A BIG ASSMAN”?
1 Go to commentsThe only championship the Boks hold are: Great value for the incompetence of referees during the RWC Moaning endlessly and champions of spewing utterly ignorant 💩 at all times. Displaying the dangers of a third world education End of.
53 Go to commentsSouth Africa and Rassie do a phenomenal job of treating the 4 years in between World Cups as nothing more than a training exercise to build squad depth. The Six Nations money that keeps Irish rugby afloat is unfortunately too important to allow the same approach, and basic population size means we'll never get close to matching the depth of South Africa, England and France. That being said, Irish rugby is in a relatively good place and slowly improving inch by inch. If the other three provinces can pull the finger out and actually develop some players it'd be even better.
53 Go to commentsGood on Clarke for taking on the criticism and addressing his deficiencies, principally his laziness.
2 Go to comments“It is the people’s favourite against the actual favourite. It is the people’s champions against the actual champions. I’m joking, but it’s going to be a fantastic series.” Why did Darcy make that joke knowing it would be used as click bait? Why did RP headline it as a serious comment? Anyway, the tired comment isn’t very astute. SA players may have played more games etc. Darcy over estimated as a pundit.
53 Go to commentsNot sure Frisch will ever make the French team with Depoortère and Costes waiting in the wings to take over from Danty and Fickou.
1 Go to commentsThe Irish are tired and the Boks are old. The test series won't confirm who is best in the world, it will confirm which team needs to pursue the task of rebuilding with the most urgency.
53 Go to commentsGrant, the first time I have seen an article written by you. Maybe I have missed your previous stuff. These days all professional players effectively play a common season so all top players are equally tired, or rested. That is the job of the coaching ticket to build squad depth and juggle resources so players are ‘ fresh’ when the big games come. Possibly Ireland are less inclined to juggle squad compared to Rassie, who is prepared to take the risk to rest players as well as build depth throughout the year so come WC he has a full squad, experienced and rested enough to win 7 games. After all, to win WC you need to get through the tournament and then win the final big 3 games. Ireland should try and build a bit so come final 3 they are ready. So far only played final 1(QF). I am so looking forward to the Irish tour. Hopefully Rassie has enough time to align his guys, as he draws them from across the globe, and not from 2 sides locally( eg Leinster, Munster). No excuses, going to be exciting.
53 Go to commentsIn football, teams get fined and sometimes docked points for deliberately fielding weakened teams yet Leinster can pretty much do as they please with no comebacks. Could it be because Ireland run the URC? Could it be that Ireland run the ERC? Whichever it is, it stinks!!
6 Go to commentsIreland are only the People’s Champions in Irish eyes. The rest of the world do not care for them very much because of attitudes of people like Gordon, Ferris, Best, Jackman…I could go on!!
53 Go to commentsNot sure how Karl Dickson can ever ref a Quins game, he played for the club for 8 years as understudy to Care and is still close friends with half the team
3 Go to commentsAre bookies taking bets on how many times Vunipola's eventual statement will use the term “elders"? My money is on at least 4 times.
4 Go to commentsSo Ireland will be tired, despite having the most rested test squad in the world. They only play tests, champions cup and urc play off games ffs! Case in point; Leinster sent a B squad to SA for their last two games while their first xv rested up and trained at their leisure for the sf vs Saints at the so called ‘neutral venue’ of Croke Park. So tired? Do me a favour… And as for “people’s champions”? Seriously??? Outside of Ireland they are respected for their ability to win 6N. And of course plenty of inconsequential test friendlies without any real pressure. WC ko games when the pressure is white hot? Not so much…
53 Go to commentsSurprising how standing down or benching a player can do wonders for their motivation. Several players this week in that category.
2 Go to comments