Experimentation time for the Wallabies must end now for a World Cup run
Recently I was asked what my opinion was on the current state of the Wallabies.
It’s an open-ended question but to answer appropriately I will aim to do so in the context of their chances of lifting the William Webb Ellis Trophy after the final whistle at Stade de France on the 29th of October 2023, still some 14 months away.
To establish where the Wallabies are at, the question is where are they not?
The Wallabies are a side that can defeat the best sides in the world at home. A 2021 series defeat of France, who despite not selecting their best possible squad were a very good side nonetheless.
Coupled with defeats of New Zealand, England and South Africa is cogent evidence that the Australians are a very competitive team on home soil – yet the next World Cup isn’t being played down under.
Since Dave Rennie and his team have taken the helm, the Wallabies are not a team that has toured with any great success.
The northern tour of 2021 is the most recent evidence to rely on how the Wallabies might handle three back-to-back tests against opposing nations away from home.
The fact the Wallabies were defeated by Scotland, England and Wales doesn’t bode well. Of course, there was some eye-brow raising officiating at times, key players not available to tour, yet a 14-man Wallabies were impressive against a Welsh team who only sealed victory at the death of the match with a penalty goal.
So, winning away from home against different opponents presently is an issue for the Australians.
The set-piece has been a facet of play that has significantly improved over the past decade for the Wallabies yet would you put your house on the scrum and line out delivering consistently? One can think back to CBUS stadium in 2021 where Taniela Tupou caused the Springbok scrum all manner of issues and that was the genesis for a penalty that led to the now famous penalty kick of redemption for Quade Cooper.
However, against the same opponent last Saturday in Adelaide, Tupou’s questionable technique was under greater scrutiny and was penalised. I think it fair to say that the starting front row of Slipper, Fainga’a and Alaalatoa performed admirably, and had their wins, but also their losses but were not the dominant trio.
Therefore, the scrum shouldn’t be a significant issue for the Australians moving forward but it is not without its gremlins either.
Turning to the lineout this is an area of recent concern. Against Argentina in San Juan, it was politely forgettable. But again, against South Africa in Adelaide, the Wallabies were forced on several occasions to play to the front off basic slip moves simply to ensure possession and forced to work their way down the ‘Fat Mans Track’ that prohibited the unleashing of the backline without having to encounter significant defensive line speed.
The positive is that the Wallabies possess the cattle to have a formidable lineout. They do not struggle for height or weight considering they have the likes of Rory Arnold, Nick Frost, Will Skelton, Matt Phillip and Darcy Swain at their disposal.
Dave Porecki appears to be more consistently accurate than Folau Fainga’a on the throw but perhaps the issue is how hard are they making the lineout for themselves. At times their choice of lineout appears overly complicated to execute thus appearing more of a mosh-pit than an organized movement.
If the Wallabies can overcome these issues their lineout can become a weapon. Considering Brumbies duo of Dan McKellar and now Laurie Fisher are both working for the Wallabies such a lineout is likely on the near horizon.
The Wallabies do not lack in players who can bend the line. Few could argue that Rob Valentini isn’t now one of the premier line runners in world rugby. Add Rob Leota, Jed Hollaway and Harry Wilson into that mix and it is safe to say the Australians have big bodies than can move on the edge and offload when required.
How Coach Rennie will use these larger bodies in concert with his centres such as Len Ikitau, Hunter Paisami and potentially Samu Kerevi could make the Wallabies an exceptionally difficult beast to deal with if they get their rhythm and tempo to facilitate such play.
To allow for that desired facilitation the Wallabies halves must manage the game appropriately.
In Nic White, Tate McDermott and Jake Gordon the Wallabies have three halfbacks who are each capable of getting their side into the right part of the field. White and Gordon are the better game managers, yet McDermott is the X-factor who can take a game away from any opponent in an instant.
It is the balance of the flyhalf and fullback selection that could cure or kill the Wallabies.
Write Quade Cooper off at your peril, but returning from a serious injury takes time. James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale are yesterday’s answers to today’s questions.
The re-selection of veteran Bernard Foley is intriguing as he never possessed the tactical kicking game in his previous Wallaby career to convince that he could steer Australia to World Cup success.
To suggest at 32, he will possess the speed or want the contact to re-establish himself as a first-choice test flyhalf is a bit farfetched.
The reality is that the Wallabies now must go all in on Noah Lolesio. Yes, he was good against South Africa on Saturday but so much more will be asked of him over the next 14 months.
The uncapped Waratah Ben Donaldson is in the training mix and he may yet be the steady understudy to Lolesio however the safe bet will be the Mr Fix It of Australian Rugby in Reece Hodge whom I’m sure would do a fair job at lock if required.
If Hodge were to start at No 10 that could open the pathway for Queensland’s Jock Campbell, who is also uncapped, but is surely a better option at 15 than Tom Wright or Jordan Petaia.
How Coach Rennie and his assistants select those who will have the ball in their hands the most and are willing to execute their plan will be a significant factor in how these Wallabies will go in 2023.
Presently it appears it is still a grey, undecided area for them. The Wallabies coaching set-up must establish a 9-10-15 spine and stick with it from now moving forward. I lean towards the White, Lolesio, Hodge combination with McDermott, Donaldson and Campbell behind them.
So presently the Wallabies are a team that has some questions of themselves to answer.
How do we establish a mentality that can win at least six games against different opponents away from home? Where is the point of difference in the set piece? They have the potential to produce a weaponized lineout if they can remove so many moving pieces that presently exist.
And finally, establish who is their best game managers and give them time. The experimentation time must cease and it’s time to pick and stick.
This is where I think the Wallabies are at present, but address those aforementioned issues and I think they could go deep at the Rugby World Cup in 2023.
Comments on RugbyPass
Sorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
2 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
2 Go to commentsIt’s the massive value he brings with regard team culture/values, preparation, etc. Can’t buy that. I’m hoping to see the young locks get their chance in the big games though.
10 Go to commentsAll good, Gregor, except that you neglected to mention Sam Darry amongst that talented pool of locks. In fact, given Hannah’s inexperience and the fact that Holland won’t be eligible until next year, Lord and Darry might be the frontrunners this year, to join Barrett, Tuipoluto, Va’ii and possibly Whitelock. In fact there might be room for all of them if Barrett played 6 (like Ollie Chessum).
10 Go to commentsHis value is stabilizing the ship 20 - 40 minutes out from the final whistle plus his valuable experience to the underlings coming through.
10 Go to commentsWhat is criminal is she acts like it's no problem her actions have have cause the Italian player to lose her playing career, lose salary, if she did this in day to day life she would be in jail, she is a complete thug!!!
3 Go to commentsCorrect me if i’m wrong but the sadas have to win all games running into the finals yeh nah?
1 Go to commentsDon’t like Diamond but the maul is a joke, the sight of a choke tackle creating a maul then players in offside positions flopping on it killing the ball but then getting the put in? Banal.
3 Go to commentsHopefully Tabai Matson returns to Crusaders as head coach next season.
1 Go to commentsstorm in a teacup really. Penalty only so play on as the try was scored. Now the real question is: why was Maitland allowed to pass the ball off the floor? That is illegal but refs never pick it up.
1 Go to commentsWhen Beauden Barrett signed his contract before the 2023 RWC to play in Japan in 2024, it was NOT part of a sabbatical agreed to with NZRU prior to his signing, as was Ardie Savea and Sam Cane. Barrett changed his mind after the fact and negotiated his return to NZ Rugby and he was given permission to be eligible for All Black selection straight away once he signed a new contract to return to the Blues in 2025. Therefore, why would anyone argue against Whitelock returning to the All Blacks straight away after his season is France is finished if he signs a new contract with NZRU which includes a Super Rugby contract in 2025? If Barrett can, Whitelock should be allowed too.
10 Go to commentsThe All Blacks will select 5 locks this season. Scott Robertson will most likely want to select 2 veteran locks who can start right away in 2024 and 3 young promising locks who he would like to be pushing hard for selection in the starting XV in two years time- 2026. Scott Barrett is a world class lock. Who would you rather start beside him this season against England, South Africa, Ireland, and France- Sam Whitelock or Patrick Tuipulotu? I would choose Whitelock over Tuipulotu all day, every day.
10 Go to comments