Could we see a World Cup upset? Areas that could swing the quarter-finals
It’s crunch time. Inside eight days, the Rugby World Cup will go from a 12-strong tournament to only having four teams remaining. The quarter-final draw has left us in a situation whereby there are four clear favourites to progress to the tournament’s close, but each one is faced with a banana skin.
At this stage, favourites England, hosts New Zealand and dark horses Canada have revealed very little of their gameplan going forward. France have shown a little, but have performed far from their best. Wales, Italy, Australia and USA all remain in the tournament with a dream to create an upset. Let’s have a look at one component which could well swing the momentum of each game.
France vs Italy – The kicking game
The first semi-final is undoubtedly the most contentious. France entered the tournament as arguably second-favourites, but now find themselves with a real game on their hands. Italy already have a win under Thomas Darracq’s side under their belts, with a warm-up victory going to the Azzurri. In this match-up, anything is possible.
France, in theory, should be the best kicking side in the tournament. One wonders why World Rugby have persisted with calling their new law the “50:22” rather than just giving it the catchier name of the “Tremouliere”. France’s fly-half Jessy Tremouliere has proven herself to be the most prolific abuser of this law in the world, often hitting them for fun. The issue is, Tremouliere has only started for France once this tournament. Could this be France’s version of saving something back for the knockouts? Leaving out a world-class player?
Aside from Tremouliere, France have more kicking options out wide than anyone else. Pauline Bourdon at nine is one of the best box-kickers in the game, plus Emilie Boulard and Chloe Jacquet both have mega boots. Caroline Drouin has been typically off-colour thus far, but is capable of pulling out moments such as her beautiful cross-kick to assist Gaelle Hermet’s try against England.
On the flipside, Italy are an underdog in the kicking department. As the “smaller” sides go, they are blessed with kicking options. Aside from the obvious magician and “number one player” Beatrice Rigoni at centre, fly-half Veronica Madia has shown herself to be the perfect foil and more than functional under pressure. Michela Sillari has had a fantastic tournament at 13, and the trio have shown tremendous ability to find space in behind.
If France are to go far in this tournament, they’ll probably want to put a few testing bombs in the air and smash a few fullbacks. Vittoria Minuzzi is arguably the competition’s form fullback, so France can’t afford to give her a second on the ball in space. Both teams have the capability to kick seismic oppositions off the park. This is shaping up to be one of the world’s most exciting test matches.
New Zealand vs Wales – Shutting off the backs’ space
Let’s not beat around the bush – not many will give Wales a chance of beating the Black Ferns on Saturday. It’s an uphill climb for Ioan Cunningham’s women, given their 56-12 pool stage defeat. The beauty of a quarter-final rematch is that Wales can learn from their previous mistakes and put them right.
New Zealand are the most talented side in the tournament. If you give Stacey Fluhler or Theresa Fitzpatrick a moment on the ball, she’ll run rings around you. The easiest way to prevent the likes of Portia Woodman from scoring is by shutting off her source. This was a struggle for Wales in their pool encounter, but let’s have a look at the impact of two players they left out who could make a difference:
In the above image, Australia have the ball around seven metres outside their own 22 looking to clear. This Australian team are always ready to run from anywhere, though, so Wales need to remain focused.
Australia feed the ball to Bridie O’Gorman at first receiver. Alex Callender shoots up ahead of the rest of the line, giving O’Gorman two options: step inside and get isolated against three of Wales’ back-five forwards, or look to the outside. She feeds Grace Hamilton, who is marked by centre Carys Williams-Morris.
Hamilton is a great ball carrier, but not when you cut off her space. While the ball is in the air, Williams-Morris applies maximum line speed and smashed Hamilton back to inside her own 22. This was a theme of Williams-Morris’ whole game against Australia – she was excellent in defeat.
With Callender back in the fold, she’ll be slowing down the Black Ferns’ ruck speed at all costs. As the top tackler in the entire competition, if Callender’s contact skills are as sharp as they have been all tournament, Cunningham would hope this will allow the likes of Williams-Morris to make huge defensive reads like this. It’s the only way to stop the likes of Fluhler and Fitzpatrick.
England vs Australia – The driving maul
It’s no secret that England’s driving maul is their biggest weapon at the moment. With all but one of their tries against South Africa scored by forwards, any and every opponent they face will be forced to compromise their defensive strategies so they don’t get blown over.
We all know the threat of England’s maul, so let’s look at how their opponents, Australia, might defend it.
Earlier in this game, Wales scored a try from a dummy-maul, so Australia know they need to be alert of trick plays. Wales, however, have set a maul and started to make yardage. Emily Chancellor in six is working her way through the middle of the maul despite the attentions of Cerys Hale. As Australia start to wheel the maul, Chancellor tries to squeeze herself out of the gap between Hale and Bethan Lewis, with the intention of ejecting Hale from the maul.
Chancellor succeeds in removing Hale, leaving Lewis in control and Cara Hope (wearing 1) off-balance. She doesn’t change her bind, so isn’t a major concern for the referee.
After being thrown off, Wales accidentally collapse their own maul and fall over, merely because Chancellor created separation between the two driving forces of the maul. The referee calls “down by red” and Wales have to play the ball away.
Could Australia pull this off against England? Sure. Might they need to commit a few more numbers to stunt the initial drive? Yeah, probably. If you’re a defence coach, you might have to tell your pack to focus wholly on the drive, and trust the backs to defend anything wider. England are the best team in the world, so you might have to face the fact that if you’re going to let them score, let them score out wide rather than coming through the middle.
A sure fire method of stopping the Red Roses is yet to be invented, but if the Wallaroos can dampen their driving maul, that’s a mini-victory in itself.
Canada vs USA – Canada’s clinical halfbacks
I mean, much like England, the obvious answer is also the driving lineout, with hooker Emily Tuttossi the top *points* scorer in this tournament for her work at the back of the maul.
But that’s backed up by the women in the middle. As Canada approach their rematch with last week’s opponents, USA, their halfbacks will take on a lot of responsibility. Even with the experienced Brianna Miller ruled out, Justine Pelletier and Alex Tessier stepped up to manage last week’s game beautifully.
Tessier is arguably the best 12 in the world aside from Beatrice Rigoni. Few players in international rugby have the all-court game she possesses; a beautiful passer of the ball, a tremendous range of kicks, graceful running and never half-hearted in contact. Whether she plays 10 or 12, she’s the sort of player who can calmly guide her team into a World Cup semi-final without any real fuss being made over her.
Tessier’s try in Canada’s pool encounter with USA was a perfect example of how Canada rely on their halfbacks. As soon as it became clear the forwards weren’t going over, Pelletier called the ball out of the back and fed Tessier to execute an overlap. Sara Kaljuvee’s try against Italy was very similar, with Miller stood in the ten channel.
Canada are a team without a real weak point, and if they’re to breeze through their quarter final in the same way they did the group stage, expect their halfbacks to be the driving force once more.
Comments on RugbyPass
Hold the phone, decline over-rated. Is it a one game, dead cat bounce or the real thing? Has the Penney dropped? Stay tuned.
39 Go to commentsTotally deserved win for the Crusaders Far smarter than the Chiefs who seem to be avoiding the basics when it matters Hotham showed them what was missing and Hannah seems a real find - a tad light but that can be fixed over time
8 Go to commentsGreat insight into the performance culture with Sarries and I predict Christie will be a fixture in the Scotland team now for some time to come. However, he is slightly missing his own point around Scotland “being soft” when he cites physicality examples in defence of that slight. The issue is much closer to the example he referenced around feeling off before a game but being told “it doesn’t matter, you can still play well” by Farrell. Until Scotland can get their psyche in that square, they will carry on folding under extreme pressure…
1 Go to comments> We are having to adapt, evolve and innovate more than when we were in Super Rugby where there was only really one style that everybody had to play to gain the most success. Have = able to? Interesting what that one style might be? I thought SA sides still had bad tours now, or at least bad schedule, months away? Those extra few hours flights have to be a killer though, no surprise to see their sides doing so badly at the start of the season each year. I wouldn’t enjoy that unfairness as a supporter.
5 Go to commentsThe problem for NZ, and Aus, is they ripped up the SR model and lost a massive chunk of revenue that hasn’t been replaced. Don’t forget SA clubs went North because they were left with no choice, Argy unceremoniously binned and Japan cast adrift. Now SR wasn’t perfect, far from it, but they’ve jumped into something without an effective plan, so far, to replace what they’ve lost. The biggest revenue potential now lies in Japan but it won’t be easy or quick to unlock, they are incredibly insular in culture as a nation. In the meantime, there is a serious time bomb sitting under SH rugby and if it happens then the current financial challenges will look like a picnic. IF the Boks follow their provincial teams and head north then it’s revenue meltdown. Not guaranteed to happen but the status quo is a very odd hybrid, with the Boks pointing one way and the clubs pointing the other way. And for as long as that remains then the threat is real.
39 Go to commentsI think Etene has had some good tuition, likely while at the Warriors to be a professional that helped his rugby jump, but he was certainly thrown in the deep end way too early. Should have arguably 20 less SR caps, and therefor a way better record that he does at his age, but his development would have been fast tracked by the need to satiate his signing away from league. Again, credit to him and others that he has done it so well. Easy to fall over under that pressure in the big leagues like that but he kept at it when I myself wasn’t sure he was good enough.
1 Go to commentsAwesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
8 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
8 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
8 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
39 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
4 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
39 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
39 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
39 Go to comments